The Chargers head to East Rutherford, NJ for a game against the Jets in primetime. With LA and New York just a game apart in the wild card standings, Monday Night Football has some big playoff implications for both sides.
The Chargers sit just one game out of a playoff spot behind the 4-3 Browns. New York is tied with Cleveland in record and is the first team on the outside looking in entering this game.
Let’s get into what the Chargers have to do to bring a win back to the West Coast.
Don’t let Zach Wilson get comfortable
Zach Wilson has done his job admirably this season. Both he and the Jets know that he’s not Aaron Rodgers. But he’s managed games effectively. And with how the Jets’ defense has played, it’s all he needs to do.
In 2022, Wilson had a turnover-worthy play percentage of 5.9% for the season. That figure is down significantly in 2023 at 2.6%. Wilson ranks 24th of 37 qualified starting quarterbacks in ADOT at 7.8.
If the Chargers are willing to give Garrett Wilson and other Jets’ targets free releases off the line, Zach Wilson is more than capable of taking advantage of the short-intermediate parts of the field. He knows he doesn’t have to necessarily play hero ball with New York’s defense.
I’d like to see the Chargers play up near the line of scrimmage with some press/man coverage looks as opposed to the two-man high, soft zone formations we’ve been seeing. Force Wilson to make tough throws into tight windows to beat you. He’s capable of taking the short stuff if Staley lets him.
Outside of the pass rush giving Wilson problems, it’s gonna be on the secondary to force the issue too.
A big Keenan Allen game
Mike Williams is already out for the season obviously. Joshua Palmer is out for this game as he continues to deal with his knee injury. The Chargers’ receiving group on Sunday looks like it’ll be Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis, Simi Fehoko, and Jalen Guyton if he is indeed activated off of PUP.
The Chargers probably don’t want to use Davis in many 11 personnel sets with his special teams role and Guyton is coming back from an extensive rehab process. I’d have to assume he’d play on a snap count. Johnston will need to contribute as he did against the Bears last week, but the bulk of the receiver production load once again rests on the shoulders of Allen.
Allen will likely rotate between the outside and the slot as he battles with both Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II. While most of it is Chargers’ offense-related as opposed to the star receiver having bad games, it is worth pointing out that Allen has only had 70+ yards in one of his last four contests.
If we get a Herbert-Allen game that rivals the first three weeks of the season, the Chargers will have a chance in this one. Of note: Allen sits just 70 yards away from 10.000 career receiving yards.
Go away from the run game if it’s not working
The Chargers have had a bad run game over the last three weeks. 3.32 yards per carry on 74 touches is just not going to get the job done. Removing an outlier, Joshua Kelley’s 49-yard touchdown run against the Chiefs, the number on the other 73 carries is 2.7 yards per attempt.
Of course, the Chargers should still try to establish the run with Austin Ekeler and company early. It would make the game a lot easier from an offensive standpoint if they were able to give the offense at least four yards per carry on good volume.
But the Chargers’ offense has slowed down in the second half partially because of the run game going dry. If they’re not getting any progress on the ground, they have to put the ball in Justin Herbert’s hands in a close game.
Try to get the run game going, but don’t be too attached if it flops. The Chargers have had sequences with three straight runs that resulted in 3 & out drives in each of the last two games’ second halves.
The pass rush taking advantage of the Jets’ offensive line
Getting Zach Wilson uncomfortable was mentioned earlier and the Chargers’ pass rush will be a big part of that. The Jets’ offensive line ranks 32nd on PFF’s weekly rankings. Amongst teams that played in Week 8, the Jets were dead last in pass-blocking efficiency.
The Jets will get right guard Joe Tippman back. He’s been a decent player for them but they’re still patching up a number of holes on the rest of the offensive line. Connor McGovern and Wes Schweitzer went on injured reserve following last week’s game against the Giants.
This has to be a big week from the pass rush. Joey Bosa is fully healthy with Khalil Mack on the other side. Tuli Tuipulotu is ready to fire in for some rushes next to Bosa as well.
Wilson tends not to perform well under pressure and isn’t immune to taking the extra sack that could knock the Jets out of field goal range or force some type of turnover. It’s on the Chargers to force the issue and this is about as juicy of a pass-rushing opportunity as they’re going to get all season.
More usage of Donald Parham outside of the red zone
Donald Parham had four receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown in relief of Gerald Everett last week. While Everett is on track to return in this game after three full practices, I’d like to see the Chargers continue to use Parham more in the open field.
Prior to last week, most of what we saw with Parham was strictly red-zone opportunities in terms of receiving. Using his 6’8″ frame to weigh on a defense leverage-wise just seems like something they should be doing more. More two receiver sets are needed in between the 20-yard lines at the very least considering the weakened state of the wide receiver room.
