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The Conversation
The Conversation
Nadir Jeevanjee, Research Physical Scientist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

5 forecasts early climate models got right – the evidence is all around you

The island nation of Tuvalu is losing land to sea-level rise, and its farms and water supplies are under threat from salt water. Mario Tama/Getty Images

Climate models are complex, just like the world they mirror. They simultaneously simulate the interacting, chaotic flow of Earth’s atmosphere and oceans, and they run on the world’s largest supercomputers.

Critiques of climate science, such as the report written for the Department of Energy by a panel in 2025, often point to this complexity to argue that these models are too uncertain to help us understand present-day warming or tell us anything useful about the future.

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