The Minnesota Vikings made multiple trades in the 2022 NFL draft. In fact, the Vikings didn’t make any of the picks that they entered the draft with.
General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah came from Wall Street where trading is commonplace and a trade happens every minute. He attacked areas of the draft where he believed there were inefficiencies in the market.
How do draft trades get made? There are multiple draft value charts out there and teams have their own on how they value picks. Jimmie Johnson famounsly created his own value chart when he took over as the head coach for the Dallas Cowboys. That model is outdated, as it wasn’t based on any data.
The best model out there is the Rich Hill trade chart. It’s based on historical data and the values allign closest with how teams value picks.
With both of those things in mind, I identified what it would cost to move up in five different situations.
20. Seattle Seahawks
Vikings send: 23 (244.86) and 119 (23.62)=268.48
Seahawks send: 20=269.18
The Vikings don’t have to make a major jump in order to get a player that they covet. Heck, they have made trades down just one spot multiple times over the past 15 years. Last season, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made multiple trades to try and exploit the market. If the Vikings would want to do a move up of just three picks, it would cost just a fourth round pick. That’s not a huge cost.
18. Detroit Lions
Vikings send: 23 (244.86) and 87 (48.01)=292.87
Lions send: 18=286.72
We know that the Vikings have no problem trading with anyone in today’s era, including division rivals. Adofo-Mensah traded with both the Lions and Green Bay Packers in last year’s draft and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him do it again. A move up five spots would cost the Vikings their third-round pick. Yes, it’s a tad more than what 18 is worth, but sometimes you have to pay a tad more.
15. Green Bay Packers
Vikings send: 23 (244.86), 87 (48.01) and 119 (23.62)=316.49
Packers send 15=315.20
Now that we are going up nearly 10 spots, it’s about it’s going to cost multiple picks, especially considering that the Vikings don’t have a second-round pick. By doing this, the Vikings would not be picking in the second, third or fourth round without another trade to bring in some more capital. By doing that, the Vikings would likely be moving up for a quarterback. Even though this is fair value by the Rich Hill chart, the Packers could be asking for next year’s first or second-round pick. The price always goes up with quarterbacks.
12. Houston Texans
Vikings send: 23 (244.86), 158 (9.91) and 2024 first (100.88)=355.65
Houston send 12=346.51
This is where things get tricky. There isn’t a consistent value of future picks, but how Hill describes it is this: take the pick you have and drop it a full round value wise times the amount of years out it is. Hence the Vikings 23rd overall pick becomes the value of the 55th overall pick. This is the exact trade that the New Orleans Saints made with the Packers to go up from 27 to 14 to select Marcus Davenport, as the distance between 12 and 14 is very similar to the gap between 23 and 27.
7. Atlanta Falcons
Vikings send: 23 (244.86), 119 (23.62), 158 (9.91), 2024 first (100.88) and 2025 first (48.01)=427.28
Falcons send: 7=425.50
This is a lot to give up to go to seventh overall, but it’s always worth it for a quarterback. Here, the Vikings give up three first-round picks and fourth and fifth round picks from this year’s draft. The Vikings would still have their third and sixth round picks to continue building the roster. In 2024, the Vikings would only have their second round pick in the top 100. That’s not an ideal scenario for the Vikings, but nothing matters that much when you get your quarterback.
