It’s December, and if the Miami Dolphins aren’t already in crisis mode, they probably should be. But what else is new?
On Monday night in Miami, the Dolphins held a 27-13 lead over the seemingly inept Tennessee Titans with 4:34 remaining. After a series of miscues and some rather unfortunate bounces, Miami let the Titans score two touchdowns in the final moments to steal away a stunning 28-27 win. Tennessee is officially the first NFL team of the 21st century to win after facing a 14-point deficit in the game’s final three minutes.
I mean… what???
In case you were wondering, NFL teams facing that kind of deficit are now 1-767 since 2016, per Bleacher Report.
The Titans trailed 27-13 with less than 3:00 to play then rallied for a 28-27 win over the Dolphins.
Per @TruMediaSports, Tennessee is the only team this century to overcome at least a 14-point deficit in the final three minutes of a game and win in regulation.
— Jason Starrett (@starrettjason) December 12, 2023
What on Earth happened here? Were the Dolphins really just overlooking a horrific Titans team on paper? Do they have more fatal flaws than they’d like to admit? Worse yet, have they simply run out of gas?
Let’s diagnose the current (emphasis on current) AFC East leader and assign proper blame to five important Dolphins figures for one of the worst collapses in NFL history. Don’t worry: There’s plenty to go around.
5
QB Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa is one of the NFL’s finest quarterbacks when he’s on and locked in. He can play like a legitimate MVP candidate who victimizes defenses with absurd anticipatory throws. When he’s off or pressured or out of rhythm — or all three — Tagovailoa is kind of just a guy.
This is precisely what we saw Monday night in Miami Gardens.
Tagovailoa wasn’t awful, per se. He completed nearly 70 percent of his passes and averaged almost 7.3 yards per pass attempt. But when push came to shove, he had no answer for a Tennessee defense ranked 19th in defensive DVOA efficiency and 24th in passing defense. Essentially, the main reason Miami even took a late 27-13 lead only to blow it was because of ghastly Titans turnovers, gifting the Dolphins with offensive possessions deep in the red zone. Otherwise, Tagovailoa and Miami’s attack was effectively neutralized and a non-factor for most of the evening.
Per @NextGenStats, Tua Tagovailoa was pressured on 39% of his dropbacks tonight and sacked 5 times
When facing pressure, Tua completed 4-of-11 passes for 27 yards (-20.4% CPOE)
Without pressure, Tua was 19-of-22 for 213 yards (12.6% CPOE)
— Marcel Louis-Jacques (@Marcel_LJ) December 12, 2023
Injuries did play a role in Tagovailoa’s shoulder shrug of a night. Miami’s offensive line has been decimated all season, with left tackle Terron Armstead ailing and center Connor Williams now officially out for the year. Tyreek Hill’s lingering ankle injury didn’t help either. But if this offense is completely lost just because it loses one playmaker, that doesn’t speak to a quarterback who makes his teammates better. It actually says Hill is an exceptional player, but even he can only elevate the Dolphins and Tagovailoa to a certain ceiling.
4
DE Bradley Chubb
Chubb took a lot of heat for extending a critical Titans’ drive with a nonsense helmet-throw penalty. And rightly so. The Dolphins’ defense had stymied the Titans’ struggling attack on third-and-long. Had Chubb maintained his composure, Miami would’ve gotten off the field with likely just a field goal attempt. Instead, he gave Tennessee new life, and the Titans made him pay by scoring a touchdown.
In effect, this was a four-point penalty in what ended as a one-point game:
Bradley Chubb with an all-timer bad penalty for the Dolphins.
He misses a sack on Will Levis on third down. Levis scrambles but doesn't get a first down.
Chubb slams his helmet in frustration on the field. That gives the Titans a first down. pic.twitter.com/b5wt25Bilf
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) December 12, 2023
Now, that aside, I want to focus on Chubb’s overall performance as the Dolphins’ supposed star pass-rusher. At the 2022 trade deadline, Miami surrendered a first-round draft pick to the Denver Broncos for Chubb’s services. At the time, it was considered a costly price to pay for someone many considered a second-tier edge player. But the Dolphins needed more firepower on defense, and Chubb, at least on paper, fit the bill. They were so confident in his abilities that they rewarded him with the ninth-highest defensive end contract in total value ($110 million) and the seventh-highest in total guaranteed money ($63.2 million), per Over The Cap.
Since then, Chubb has not held up his end of the bargain. Not even close. Instead, he has validated all the concerns about that trade’s compensation, his monster extension and that he might be a tad (very) overpaid.
Monday night was Chubb’s 20th career start with the Dolphins. He has just 27 quarterback hits, nine sacks and eight tackles for loss in that span. These are fine and productive numbers at face value, but they are not reflective of a franchise pass-rusher. For context, Nick Bosa, T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons all have at least 27 quarterback hits… this season. Meanwhile, this year’s trade deadline big fish, Montez Sweat, has completely transformed a suddenly elite Chicago Bears defense with his presence. It’s no coincidence Sweat has 11 quarterback hits, 10 tackles-for-loss and 3.5 sacks in five appearances with Chicago. The Bears similarly gave Sweat a whale of a new contract, and their belief in him is already being rewarded and then some.
Chubb is being compensated like these four players, despite playing more like an edge Scottie Pippen than a Michael Jordan. This is a huge problem, particularly for a Dolphins defense that needs Chubb to be more productive and a better leader in the absence of Jaelan Phillips. We’re over a full season’s slate of games with Chubb wearing Dolphins teal. There’s enough of a sample size that I’m not sure we’re going to see that come to fruition.
3
WR Jaylen Waddle
Is Jaylen Waddle a Tyreek Hill merchant? Many people are wondering about this after Waddle’s quiet six receptions for 79 yards on Monday night. (They are, in fact, not having those thoughts.)
Still, Waddle’s role in the Dolphins is curious. He has the prototypical No. 1 receiver speed. Few active players can turn a routine five-yard pass into a 70-yard touchdown quite like him. He’s also not afraid to go over the middle — a prerequisite for any elite offensive playmaker — and is someone that defenses still have to gameplan for.
But Waddle’s got just 91 targets this season. He’s on pace to barely eclipse 1,000 yards receiving and is averaging over five yards less per catch (13) than during his All-Pro caliber 2022 campaign. He’s scored just one touchdown since before Halloween. Oh, and he only has two 100-yard efforts all year. Mind you, Waddle’s only missed a single game due to injury. Stats like below are all well and good, but it’d be an understatement to say Waddle has been disappointing in 2023:
Jaylen Waddle needs 178 receiving yards to become the 1st player in franchise history with 3 consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons
— Jason Sarney (@Jason_Sarney) December 12, 2023
What’s the deal here?
The Dolphins have probably become too reliant on Tyreek Hill to mobilize their offense. Hill has more than 40 more targets (!) than Waddle in the passing game. That’s fine when you’re spamming the guy on pace for 2,000 receiving yards and giving him every designed play in the playbook. It’s foolish when you can’t do the same for Waddle, who sometimes seems to be weirdly off with Tagovailoa chemistry-wise and otherwise disappears for long stretches of games. Waddle had just three catches for 35 yards in the second half of a one-score matchup Monday night. With Hill hurting, the young receiver wasn’t even targeted on Miami’s last do-or-die possession.
Hill can’t make every play. The Dolphins are at their best when they’re throwing his and Waddle’s speed at helpless back-sevens. For the most part, in 2023, it’s often been a one-man show, and all to Miami’s detriment.
2
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio
A disclaimer: Vic Fangio has the reputation of a defensive savant. He’s been the architect of elite units with Carolina, San Francisco and Chicago over the years. Perhaps no one deserves more respect as a defensive coach other than Bill Belichick. If Fangio ever wins that elusive Super Bowl with a team, he might one day enter the Hall of Fame as a coordinator. He’s that good.
But folks, Fangio’s Miami defense is nothing to write home about. Even with a recent surge in takeaways and impact plays, Monday night was a perfect example of where this iteration of the Dolphins often falls short on defense. In no way, shape, or form should a rookie quarterback like Will Levis enjoy the first 300-yard Monday night performance by a first-year signal-caller. But he did. In no way, shape, or form should an awful Tennessee offense amass more than 400 yards on the road. But it did. In no way, shape, or form should the Dolphins surrender two extended touchdown drives in the final four minutes of a game with a two-touchdown lead.
But they did.
Fangio might not have the same caliber of all-around players he did in San Francisco (Patrick Willis) or Chicago (Khalil Mack). But there are still ballers on that Miami defense, like Jevon Holland, Jalen Ramsey and Christian Wilkins. There is more than enough talent to close the door on a poor football team. Fangio’s unit failed. His feet should be held to the fire for it.
1
Head coach Mike McDaniel
The whole internet loves Mike McDaniel, the quirky guy who coaches professional football! (Five seconds later.) We regret to inform you that McDaniel rarely has the Dolphins prepared for their most important on-field moments.
Before Monday night’s debacle, we thought the Dolphins only struggled with good teams. Even with nine wins on the season, Miami has just one victory over a team with a record above .500. And that was early in the year when the Denver Broncos seemed determined to plunge a dagger into the heart of every football-loving fan on the Colorado Front Range. McDaniel’s team had questions, but at the very least, it could beat up on cannon fodder and probably cruise to an AFC East division title.
This collapse at the hands of the Titans says otherwise. Even while being ravaged by injuries, the Dolphins have zero excuses for blowing a two-touchdown lead with just more than four minutes left in the game. They have zero excuses for a messy, discombobulated offense that scored its first points of the game in the second half. They have zero excuses for looking completely out of sync the moment they face a morsel of adversity. All of these sentiments apply to Monday night, yes, but they are also evergreen criticisms of where McDaniel and Co. continue to fall short. None of these issues are new, and they’re almost certainly not out of character the way McDaniel says they are.
Mike McDaniel: The number one reason we didn’t win the game was red zone. We lost a lot of points down there. We did out of character things to almost find a way to lose the game. pic.twitter.com/GiUsY4RoxO
— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) December 12, 2023
I like McDaniel. I think he’s a breath of fresh air and a needed injection of personality in a sport and league that takes itself way too seriously. He’s revitalized Miami football to some degree, and he should be commended for it.
But his Dolphins wilt and meltdown at the worst possible times. The next time they show an ounce of resilience when an opponent lands a punch will be the first. We are nearly two seasons into McDaniel’s tenure with Miami, and nothing has changed here. That is so alarming. It makes me wonder whether this truly is a front-running team destined for 9-10 wins every year before petering out once it plays the big boys in January. If a football team is a reflection of its coach, then McDaniel can’t like what he sees in the mirror. Not at all.
The Dolphins’ 2022 campaign was defined by a late-season stretch where they lost five of their six games before they were put out of their misery in the first round of the playoffs. With the Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills all waiting on the remaining 2023 schedule, I have a hard time believing McDaniel will keep history from repeating itself.
We have the receipts, and they are damning.
