The market has enjoyed a strong run this year, despite pockets of volatility and uncertainty. Year-to-date (YTD), the benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY) is up about 13%, and heading into the new week, it’s only 1.4% shy of its all-time high. But the next couple of weeks bring a cluster of catalysts that could test it. The August inflation report is due this Friday, Sept. 11, and it lands just five days before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Sept. 16.
Either event could move markets sharply, and they arrive back-to-back. On top of that, there is a seasonal wrinkle worth keeping in mind and respecting: 2026 is a midterm election year, and history shows that midterm years have often produced some of the sharpest intra-year declines, frequently in the autumn, before markets recover strongly once the vote passes.
