The Indianapolis Colts have an interesting offseason coming up starting with a group of players set to hit free agency when the 2024 new league year arrives in March.
Over at Pro Football Focus, a list of the top 100 free agents was put together by Brad Spielgerger and five Colts players wound up making the cut.
The five names won’t come as a shock as they are the five names most talked about in regard to the Colts’ upcoming free-agent class.
Here’s a look at the five Colts players who made the list, along with what Spielberger said and his projected contract:
11. WR Michael Pittman Jr.
What Spielberger said:
Plenty of holes will be poked in Pittman’s game in the coming months as he gets set to enter free agency, with some athletic limitations keeping his average depth of target down, especially compared to predominantly outside wide receivers.
Nonetheless, Pittman is as reliable a possession receiver as there is in the NFL, and it’s also fair to wonder if a carousel at quarterback in Indianapolis has limited his production. Pittman is on pace for a career-best receiving grade with 100-plus catches and 1,000-plus receiving yards — that gets a player paid even if there is a perceived ceiling to his game.
Top free agent comparison: Allen Robinson, 2022
Contract Projection: Franchise tag
While Pittman said after the season he wants to see what’s out there, that’s unlikely to happen due to the franchise tag. The likely scenario is that the two sides either agree upon a deal or the Colts use the franchise tag to extend the negotiation window into the summer.
41. CB Kenny Moore II
What Spielberger said:
Moore pushed for an early re-up on the four-year extension he signed in 2019, but his efforts were to no avail as the Colts worked to overhaul the roster and get younger in the secondary, in particular. Fortunately for Moore, he is earning a career-high 82.5 coverage grade along with a 71.3 run-defense grade — his sixth straight season going above 65.0.
At 5-foot-9 and 190 pounds, Moore never backs down from a tackle opportunity, doing a good job as the force defender to keep ball carriers inside or running the alley to make the tackle himself when called upon — a key role in Gus Bradley’s Cover 3 defense.
Moore became just the 28th player in NFL history to record two pick-sixes in the same game with his outstanding Week 9 performance and can now look to capitalize on a strong season. However, it will be an uphill battle in a completely dormant slot cornerback market.
Top free agent comparison: Buster Skrine, 2019
Contract Projection: Two years, $13.5 million ($6.75 million per year), $8 million total guaranteed
Moore had a strong bounce-back season in his second campaign under Gus Bradley so it will be interesting to see how that impacts his next contract. If it’s what Spielberger projects, that’s a pretty easy decision.
51. DT Grover Stewart
What Spielberger said:
Stewart served a six-game suspension this season for performance-enhancing drugs but returned in Week 14 for the stretch run. On/off splits are largely noise, but Indianapolis ranked in the top half of the NFL in expected points allowed per rush with Stewart and dead last in the games without him in the lineup. Stewart’s presence frees up rushers around him because he takes on double teams and clogs up the middle.
Top free agent comparison: Terrance Knighton, 2016
Contract Projection: Three years, $30 million ($10 million per year), $20 million total guaranteed
Stewart has been a valuable piece to the defensive line, and that was never more present than during his six-game suspension this season. Three years might seem like a long deal but defensive tackles have proven they can play well into their 30s.
66. S Julian Blackmon
What Spielberger said;
Blackmon started for two seasons in college at cornerback, and he’s on pace to log over 500 snaps in the slot from 2022-23. In Gus Bradley’s Cover-3 heavy scheme, Blackmon has spent plenty of time as the single-high safety and, in 2023, almost half his snaps down in the box.
Blackmon appears to be a better fit near the line of scrimmage due to his average recovery speed, but his plus lateral movement and solid ball skills from his days spent as a cornerback show up more often when closer to the line of scrimmage. Blackmon’s 30 defensive stops through Week 15 are more than his career total prior to 2023, and he has missed a career-low 7.4% of tackle opportunities.
Top free agent comparison: Jayron Kearse, 2022
Contract Projection: Two years, $11.5 million ($5.75 million per year), $6 million total guaranteed
Coming off a career-year, it’s also another campaign that ended due to injury. Blackmon proved to be a fantastic option for the Colts after switching to strong safety so there are reasons for both sides getting a deal done.
91. QB Gardner Minshew
What Spielberger said:
Minshew accompanied Colts head coach Shane Steichen on his move from Philadelphia to Indianapolis and made the most of his opportunity once he was quickly made the full-time starter following a season-ending injury for Anthony Richardson in Week 5. Minshew generally takes what the defense gives him and matriculates the ball down the field with underneath throws. The Colts have run the most RPOs of any team in the league this season, which leads to simpler “either or” decisions and schemed-up first reads. However, when necessary, Minshew isn’t afraid to uncork the ball to the intermediate and deep parts of the field.
At the same time, Minshew still has an erratic nature to his game, with frantic feet in the pocket that at times causes him to miss throwing windows or leads to inaccurate throws. Minshew has put the ball in harm’s way far too many times in 2023, but the high-variance nature of his play can also win games.
Top free agent comparison: Brian Hoyer, 2015
Contract Projection: Two years, $17.5 million ($8.75 million per year), $9 million total guaranteed
One of the more interesting scenarios for the Colts, it’s likely Minshew will want to find a starting role somewhere. Despite the value of having a backup quarterback like Minshew, it may be a bit steep for the Colts if his contract demands approach the double-digit millions.
