What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the Thursday games of Week 1 of the college football season?
Week 1 Thursday Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 1 Experts Picks: College
– Week 1 Thursday Schedule, Predictions
– CFN Week 1 Experts Picks: NFL
Results So Far ATS: 5-0
Click on each game for preview
5. LIU at FIU & Wagner at Buffalo
LINE: FIU -7 & Buffalo -43.5
ATS PICKS: FIU & Wagner
There might be a whole slew of games to pick from on Thursday, but there aren’t a whole lot of FBS vs FBS games that appear to be a sure thing – those are coming (hopefully) with the Saturday version of this, out on Friday.
So here are two quirky picks that are off the radar – you might have to work to find these – but could be promising in the lines really do come close to holding firm.
FIU went 0-5 in 2020, but that was a wee bit of an aberration. It might have lost to Jacksonville State from the FCS world, and the offense was hardly consistent, but this version is far stronger.
If you go with these, though, go light.
LIU has a whole lot of nice parts, and it’ll keep the game from becoming an ugly blowout, but FIU will push on by at home by more than a touchdown. FIU won’t be anything special, but it’s not Bryant or Merrimack – the two wins on the LIU spring schedule.
The other one is just a straight gaudy line play. If you’re new to the show, I have a hard and fast belief system that if someone wants to give me a 40-point lead walking into the stadium, I’ll take it and take my chances.
Wagner might not score against a terrific UB D, but if it does, it should have this thanks to all those wonderful, wonderful points. The Bull dogs might be called off in a hurry.
NEXT: No. 4 Pick Against The Spread: Eastern Washington at UNLV
4. Eastern Washington at UNLV
LINE: UNLV -11
ATS PICK: Eastern Washington
If you can really get Eastern Washington and 11 points, pounce.
If you can really get Eastern Washington on the Money Line, give it a try because there could be an outright upset here.
The Eagles have a high-powered offense with a passing attack that averaged close to 350 yards per game in the spring session. Now it gets to bomb away on an experienced – but suspect – Rebel D.
– Week 1 Schedule, Predictions For Every Game
UNLV has yet to come up with a win under head coach Marcus Arroyo, going 0-6 last year losing every game by 17 points or more. The all-Mountain West slate wasn’t a breeze, but it’s not like the Rebels were playing in the SEC West.
When was the last time UNLV won a game by 11 points? It was the shocker over Vanderbilt in the middle of 2019, and it rolled a bad Southern Utah to start that season, but Eastern Washington has too much of an offense not to keep up.
Okay, enough of the FBS vs. FCS hoo-ha …
NEXT: No. 3 Pick Against The Spread: USF at NC State
3. USF at NC State
LINE: NC State -18.5
ATS PICK: NC State
Yeah, yeah, yeah, USF should be a whole lot better in the second season under head coach Jeff Scott, and yeah, yeah, yeah, the offense looked dangerous at the end of 2020.
NC State might really be just that good.
There’s too much offensive talent to not be a whole lot better – start with assuming NC State will close to 40 on the Bull defense and go from there.
The Wolfpack D wasn’t always a rock in 2020, but it did a good job overall of keeping the mediocre teams in check. It got roasted early, had issues against North Carolina and Miami, but was solid against everyone else.
USF is a mediocre team that’s about to run into the Wolfpack linebacker wall.
– CFN Week 1 Experts Picks: College
Last year was last year, but the Bulls lost five of their last eight games by well over 19 points, and again, the NC State defense isn’t going to get ripped up.
You might have to hold your breath a bit, but State will get you there early in the fourth.
NEXT: No. 2 Pick Against The Spread: Ohio State at Minnesota
2. Ohio State at Minnesota
LINE: Ohio State -14
ATS PICK: Ohio State
Ohio State is going to beat Minnesota.
If it doesn’t, that might be a great thing for college football as a whole – the sport desperately needs to go against the chalk up top as much as possible, but that’s for another day – but it won’t happen. And why?
You think Jim Harbaugh has issues with the Buckeyes, try the historical issues Minnesota has with them.
The Golden Gophers are 1-27 against Ohio State since 1981. (Deep cut fun fact: a young me was at that 1981 game. I was bored.)
2000 was the last time Minnesota pulled off a win in the series, and since then it hasn’t been pretty.
The two played a close battle in 2001, but it was 34-3 Buckeyes in 2002. There was one good fight along the way, but everything else was decided by 13 points or more.
The Gophers lost four of their last five Big Ten openers, 2009 Navy – a 31-27 Buckeye win – was the only team to come within a gajillion points of Ohio State in a season opener since Miami won the 1999 Kickoff Classic 23-12, and …
Ohio State is going to beat Minnesota.
The 14 points shouldn’t concern you.
NEXT: No. 1 Pick Against The Spread: Bowling Green at Tennessee
1. Bowling Green at Tennessee
LINE: Tennessee -35
ATS PICK: Tennessee
I make it a point that we never change the final score prediction in the game previews unless there’s a major injury or other extenuating circumstances.
Trust the research, trust the data, trust the …
Oh whatever. Tennessee needs to win this game by a hundred million points to kickoff the Josh Heupel era with a bang, and Bowling Green is still bad at college football.
The line moved up a few points, and this time around the prediction goes right along with it.
Maybe it’s a recency bias with the way UCLA rolled by Hawaii with ease, or with how UAB had no issues with a Jacksonville State team that should’ve made it a bit of a game, or …
Again, I’m getting too deep here when it’s really simple.
Bowling Green has scored a grand total of zero points against Power Five programs since 2018 – and this year’s version still has a whole lot to prove after being outscored 225-57 last season.
To be fair with the P5 thing, there were just two games against Notre Dame and Kansas State, the Falcons haven’t lost by fewer than 25 points to a Power Five program since beating Maryland in 2015.
Tennessee has struggled and fought through its last five season openers after winning 59-30 vs. … Bowling Green.
The offense will keep pouring it on no matter who’s in at quarterback – the staff want to still see who does what, even if all eyes are on Michigan transfer Joe Milton to be amazing.
It’s football time in Tennessee. It’s also big statement time, and Bowling Green is in the way.
