The 49ers are expected to move to 4-2 on Sunday with third straight win when they face the Falcons in Atlanta. However, as the Niners know all too well, the NFL does not always conform to expectations.
Victory is far from guaranteed for San Francisco at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, especially against an Atlanta team that has been more competitive than anticipated.
San Francisco rolled to victory against the same opponent late last season as the 49ers surged into the playoffs and Kyle Shanahan’s team know a conference loss to a seemingly inferior opponent would be damaging to their hopes of reaching the postseason again this year.
The matchups, though, are stacked in favor of the 49ers, and here we look at six that will be key to deciding this game.
Grady Jarrett vs. The 49ers' IOL
San Francisco’s offensive line has significantly outperformed expectations through five weeks. Though Spencer Burford and Daniel Brunskill have rotated at right guard in recent weeks, the inexperienced trio in the heart of the trenches for the 49ers have largely risen to the task, with left guard Aaron Banks the standout as he has enjoyed a superb first season to this point.
Banks enters this game having been limited in practice during the week because of a knee injury, and the Niners will need him as close to 100 percent as possible for a difficult matchup with Jarrett.
Having seen his potential game-turning sack of Tom Brady in the Falcons’ loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers controversially overturned by penalty, Jarrett will have no shortage of motivation to excel in this one. He already has 3.5 sacks on the season and proved a nightmare for the Niners to deal with in this matchup in 2019.
For the 49ers to avoid risking a damaging shock defeat, they will need the IOL to stand up to the test Jarrett will present to prevent him wrecking the game with interior pressure.
Falcons pass-catchers vs. Emmanuel Moseley's replacement
It isn’t clear who will replace Emmanuel Moseley for this one after he suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Carolina.
Deommodore Lenoir, Samuel Womack and Dontae Johnson — activated from the practice squad — would all appear to be candidates, with some knee soreness preventing Jason Verrett from making his return this week.
Whoever gets the nod, they will be tasked with facing a group of pass-catchers not short on talent or size, with tight end Kyle Pitts set to return from a brief injury absence to join the towering Drake London in Atlanta’s aerial attack.
The 49ers were able to keep Pitts under wraps last year and the smart money is on their top-ranked defense containing the Falcons’ passing game here, but that will require a strong effort from the corner given the difficult job of replicating Moseley’s performances.
Charles Omenihu vs. The Falcons' offensive line
You could pick any player from the 49er front for this matchup with an Atlanta offensive line that ranks 25th in Football Outsiders‘ Adjusted Sack Rate allowed.
But with Nick Bosa nursing a groin injury and Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw again missing from the defensive interior, there may be a significant onus on Omenihu to create pressure both up the middle and off the edge.
He has done so in impressive fashion so far, using length, explosiveness and quickness to thrive working inside and out in his first full season with the 49ers.
Should he continue to do so against an O-Line that is an undoubted weakness of the Falcons’ roster, the 49ers may be able to rest Bosa and still contain the Atlanta offense successfully.
The Falcons' run game vs. The 49ers' run defense
This is the true strength on strength matchup of the ball game. Atlanta boasts a productive and well-designed run game that is averaging over five yards a carry, however, the 49ers’ run defense is the sternest in the NFL.
Indeed, San Francisco has allowed just three yards per rush in 2022, the 49ers’ strength against the run unaffected by injuries up front.
Kevin Givens and Hassan Ridgeway have done a fantastic job of replacing Kinlaw and Armstead’s impact against the run. Their contributions, combined with the dominance the 49ers frequently enjoy on the edge in run defense, a linebacker corps that is the league’s best and a secondary committed to slowing opposing ground games, are making DeMeco Ryans’ group the toughest team in the NFL for opposing rushing attacks to face.
This battle will be another expected to go in the direction of the 49ers. Ensuring it does will be key to a potential third straight win for San Francisco.
Kyle Shanahan vs. Atlanta linebackers
Shanahan is renowned for tormenting linebackers with his offensive gameplans and the Falcons’ players at the position appear ripe to be targeted by the 49er head coach.
The Falcons traded Deion Jones to the Cleveland Browns last Sunday, a move motivated by the level of play they have gotten at the position this season. Mykal Walker has emerged in his third season while the Falcons have also been impressed by former first-round pick Rashaan Evans.
Save for Evans, though, this is an inexperienced group, with rookie Troy Andersen also seeing the field on nearly 20 percent of defensive snaps.
No play-caller does more to put linebckers in conflict with play-action and motion than Shanahan. He will hope to enjoy particular success doing so against this group and the 49ers should be in a strong position to prevail if their offense takes advantage of those snaps when both Walker and Andersen are on the field.
Deebo Samuel vs. Casey Hayward
With X receiver Brandon Aiyuk likely to see a lot of aggressive coverage from A.J. Terrell, this is a game in which Samuel is the best bet to be the focus of the 49er passing game.
While his early-season numbers aren’t putting Samuel on pace to match his remarkable statistics of 2022, he has quickly re-established his rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo and will relish a matchup with veteran Hayward, whose best days in the league are likely behind him.
That is not to say Samuel will have an easy ride against the former Packer and Charger. Yet the Niners went as Samuel went down the stretch last season and that may well be the case in the passing game here. It is imperative he captializes on a matchup most will expect him to dominate.
