10:02 p.m. ET — Wrapping Up Rams' Win
The Los Angeles Rams are going to the Super Bowl! The six-game losing streak vs. SF is dead, as the Rams win 20-17. It will mark Matt Stafford’s first Super Bowl appearance, and Sean McVay’s second, and both will be looking for their first championship.
Both Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham, Jr. shined in this game. Kupp had 11 catches for 142 yards and two touchdowns, while OBJ had nine catches for 113 yards. Matt Stafford finished the day with 337 yards, two touchdowns and a 69% completion rate. That was enough offense to overcome the Niners' strong defense. Kendall Blanton also had a career day with five catches for 57 yards after Tyler Higbee left the game with a knee injury.
The Rams defense was strong with Travin Howard coming up big with the interception at the end of the game to seal the win for Los Angeles.
For the 49ers, Garoppolo finally threw his first postseason touchdowns, and Deebo Samuel accumulated 98 total yards and a touchdown. Brandon Aiyuk had a strong game with 69 yards and George Kittle found the end zone, but unfortunately for the red and gold, 282 total yards of offense wasn’t enough to overcome this tough Rams team. The No. 6 seed's luck finally ran out.
Bettors who took SF +3.5 cashed their tickets, as did bettors who took the under on the 45.5 game total. Fans who took the Rams on the moneyline are also celebrating tonight.
In an interesting turn of events, the NFC champs will host the Super Bowl in their home stadium for the second year in a row. The Los Angeles Rams will meet the AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals for Super Bowl LVI on Sunday, Feb. 13th at 6:30 pm EST.
9:36 p.m. ET — Jimmy G Intercepted!
Garoppolo is put under pressure by the Rams defense, and it results in an interception! He was trying to flip the ball away as he was going down, but it hit off his intended target's hands and ends up in the arms of a Rams defender. Game over. Rams will kneel it out.
And with that interception, bettors just cashed at +1200 odds all four QBs would throw an INT today. Bettors who had SF +3.5 but wanted the Rams to win in their heart, got their wish today (Read: Me.)
9:32 p.m. ET — Gay's Kick Puts Rams on Top
The 49ers are able to hold the Rams to a field goal, making it 20–17 with 1:46 left on the clock and letting SF +3.5 bettors rejoice. It’s time for Jimmy G to prove what he’s worth.
9:27 p.m. ET — Los Angeles Threatening Again
Matt Stafford’s completion rate is now up to 68%. Cooper Kupp has been targeted 13 times. The Niners only have 50 rushing yards, and Deebo has exactly four catches. The advantage has swung toward the Rams. Two minutes left and Rams are on the 15-yard line and should be able to score.
9:14 p.m. ET — Rams Tie It Up
Cooper Kupp has exceeded his receiving yards prop (104.5) once again, and now has nine catches for 109 yards on 12 targets. Rams kick the field goal from 40, and this time it is good. It is officially a tie game at 17, and I hope both teams are reviewing their coin-toss strategy.
9:12 p.m. ET — Stafford Breathes a Sigh of Relief
Tart misses an easy interception of Matthew Stafford, who immediately after completes a 30-yard pass to Odell Beckham Jr. An unnecessary roughness call on Jimmy Ward adds another 15 yards, and the momentum is turning in LA’s favor.
9:10 p.m. ET — Niners Give the Ball Back
San Francisco fails to score on their possession. Back to the Rams, who have an opportunity to tie or take the lead.
8:46 p.m. ET — Rams Respond With Ol' Reliable
Stafford and Kupp do it again! The Rams get a much-needed touchdown from Cooper Kupp's second score of the day and the Rams pull within three, 17-14.
Also, I just pulled into first in my DFS contest. Keep it up, Kupp!
8:42 p.m. ET — Another Niners TD!
Jimmy Garoppolo completes for 16 yards to Kittle for his second touchdown of the game! Thank goodness the juice on the under of 1.5 passing TDs prop kept us from taking the bet before the game.
“Jimmy Garoppolo less than 1.5 passing TDs (-120) was appealing to me yesterday, but there’s a lot of juice today at -141. As much as I think Jimmy won’t throw two touchdowns, I’m not laying $141 to win $100.”
San Francisco leads 17–7.
8:37 p.m. ET — Aiyuk Hits the Overs
Brandon Aiyuk has officially surpassed all of his receiving props. He has four catches for 69 yards, and his longest reception of 31 yards beat the 21.5 yard prop easily. SF is driving now with Deebo nearing his total yards prop.
8:32 p.m. ET — Stafford's Sneak Stopped
Rams go for it on fourth down, but the QB sneak doesn’t convert. San Francisco gets the ball, still up 10–7.
8:29 p.m. ET — Odell Keeps On Chugging
Stafford completes consecutive passes to Odell Beckham Jr., and OBJ has easily exceeded his reception prop (4.5) with a total of six so far. He’s also exceeded his receiving yards prop (54.5). He currently has 71 yards, and leads all Rams wide receivers in catches and yards. He’s tied with Kupp at 8 targets.
8:20 p.m. ET — Niners Stopped to Start the Second Half
San Francisco gets the ball to start the half, and immediately gets it in Deebo’s hands. Mitchell and Samuel are trying to get the run game going. As we mentioned above, the Niners are far better when they have at least 100 yards on the ground. They now have 37.
Rams get a stop, though, as Garoppolo is unable to complete to George Kittle. Rams will start at the 11-yard line.
8:05 p.m. ET — Halftime Thoughts
As we head into the half, bettors who took the under on this game total are feeling pretty confident, as are those holding tickets with SF +3.5, but there’s a lot more football ahead!
Here are some interesting facts to consider as we head into the second half of this game:
When Deebo Samuel has more receptions than his average (4), his team is 11–7 (.611) since the 2019 season. Samuel has two so far in this game.
When Cooper Kupp is above his average number of targets (10 targets), his team is 11–6 (.647). Kupp has eight targets so far in this game.
The 49ers are 1–9 (.100) when rushing for less than 100 yards. So far, they have 19.
When Matthew Stafford is below his average completion percentage (66%), his team is 6–14 (.286). His current completion rate is 58%.
7:57 p.m. ET — San Francisco Pulls Ahead
Garoppolo spikes the ball inside the 25-yard line to stop the clock, then scrambles on the next play but can’t get the first down. Niners use the final timeout, and Robbie Gould kicks a field goal to put the Niners ahead 10–7 as we head into the half.
7:55 p.m. ET — Niners Driving
Deebo Samuel appears to be OK, and Garoppolo completes to Kittle for a first down. SF has plenty of time here to make this game more interesting.
7:52 p.m. ET — Deebo Is Down
Deebo Samuel takes a big hit and is down after an incomplete pass. We all hold our breath and pray he’s okay.
7:48 p.m. ET — Rams Whiff on Huge Chances
Stafford is unable to get the big play with Kupp, Skrowenek and OBJ, with the first two committing inexplicable drops. Instead, Matt Gay kicks and misses. The game is tied 7–7 as SF gets the ball back with 1:50 on the clock and all three timeouts.
7:40 p.m. ET — Cam Is Hungry
Akers is back in the game and the Rams are feeding him.
7:33 p.m. ET — 49ers Even It Up
7:33- DEEEEEBO! We said if the Niners have a chance, it would be with Deebo. And here we are! If you took the Deebo TD prop we suggested below it paid -110. A $100 bet pays $190. You can buy lunch next time.
7:24 p.m. ET — Touchdown! Finally!
Rams score first! And who else would Stafford go to? It had to be Cooper Kupp—likely the Offensive Player of the Year. A Kupp anytime TD paid only -158, but if you took Kupp for the first touchdown it paid +490.
7:19 p.m. ET — Los Angeles Injury Updates
Both Tyler Higbee (knee) and Cam Akers (shoulder) have left the game with injuries and are questionable to return.
Rams need some luck here as they are finally once again in scoring range.
7:12 p.m. ET — Goose Eggs
The quarter ends with no score. The Rams have 89 total yards of offense while the Niners have 40. So far this has been a defensive battle. An interesting stat: The Rams were undefeated (6–0) when not throwing an interception this season, tied for the best record in the NFL with ... the 49ers. Will Matthew Stafford’s early end zone interception be the difference-maker in this game?
7:00 p.m. ET — Niners Play It Safe
San Francisco is unable to take advantage of this possession, and they will punt again rather than attempting the long field goal.
Trent Sherfield and Ross Dwelley combine to pin the Rams back near the goal line. Will special teams be the key to this game again? No score yet, and bettors who backed the under on this game total are feeling good right now.
6:55 p.m. ET — Interception!
6:55 That was supposed to be our Tyler Higbee TD! I guess we'll have to wait. Instead, we get an end zone interception from Jimmy Ward! The Niners have the ball and Matt Stafford’s streak of no postseason interceptions is broken.. Feeling good about my SF +3.5.
6:54 p.m. ET — In Akers They Trust
For what it's worth, Cam Akers looks incredible for just coming back from a torn Achilles. Props to Sean McVay for still sticking with his guy despite those ball security issues last week. Let’s see if it pays off.
6:52 p.m. ET — Kupp Gets Going
The first first down of the game belongs to ... who else? Cooper Kupp. It’s a 17-yard gain. Fans who watched the KC-CIN game are still trying to bring their heart rates down as the Rams continue to drive.
6:45 p.m. ET — Punt for a Punt
The Niners get the ball to Deebo early, but to little effect. After Garoppolo misses Kittle on third down, the Niners will punt. Three and out.
6:44 p.m. ET — Slow Start
The Rams go three and out, as Stafford throws the ball a bit behind OBJ on third down. They will punt away.
6:42 p.m. ET — And We're Off
The Rams get the ball to start the half ... and off we go!
6:20 p.m. ET — Last-Minute Bets
Before the game kicks off, here are a few interesting bets I am looking at from SISB.
- The Rams are favored by -3.5, and though I think they could and should win this, my head says San Francisco has yet to prove they can’t. I don’t want to buy the hook for Los Angeles, so I am taking the Niners +3.5 today. In my perfect world, the Rams win by 2.
- Game total today is set at 45.5. I am leaning toward the under here.
- Jimmy Garoppolo less than 1.5 passing TDs (-120) was appealing to me yesterday, but there’s a lot of juice today at -141. As much as I think Jimmy won’t throw two touchdowns, I’m not laying $141 to win $100.
- Deebo Samuel anytime TD (-110) and Elijah Mitchell anytime TD (+110) are solid values.
- Cooper Kupp anytime TD (-163) is not great value, but Cooper Kupp over 8.5 receptions (+105) is.
- I like Tyler Higbee today as a long shot at anytime TD (+200). He’s had three touchdowns this year vs. SF.
- My lotto bet of the day is Jauan Jennings anytime TD (+400). This one is a long shot, but I always like to sprinkle a few dollars on a big payout.
For more great player props, our SI betting team weighs in here.
The San Francisco 49ers head to SoFi Stadium this weekend as 3.5-point underdogs according to the latest odds at SI Sportsbook. Kyle Shanahan’s team continues to get little respect, despite the fact that they have won the last six matchups vs. their division rivals—including a dramatic Week 18 comeback win that guaranteed their postseason berth. The Niners have been underdogs in every postseason matchup and will look to continue their dominance of the Rams on Sunday.
To do that, San Francisco will no doubt have to lean heavily on Deebo Samuel. The Niners have had tremendous success since deploying Deebo Samuel as a Swiss Army Knife. The wide receiver has averaged nearly eight carries per game since Week 10, including 28 carries across the past two contests for a total of 156 yards and two touchdowns. Jimmy Garoppolo will need to get the ball in Samuel’s hands to have any chance at another upset; the Niners are 11–7 when Samuel has more receptions than his average (4) since the 2019 season. Across the last three contests, Samuel has also accumulated 177 receiving yards and thrown a passing touchdown.
Jimmy Garoppolo will continue to be an effective game manager, but expectations are low that he will have a big game, as SISB has the under on his 1.5 passing TD prop at -130, and his passing yards are set at 232.5, with the under paying even money. As Jimmy G hasn’t thrown a touchdown in either postseason game, and hasn’t thrown more than one TD since Week 14, I am taking the under on his TD prop. He has a banged-up thumb, after all. And if he needs some help, Deebo can handle it.
Brandon Aiyuk will also get targets in this game, and Elijah Mitchell should find some success on the ground. The Rams have surrendered the most postseason rushing touchdowns (3) in the postseason. An anytime touchdown for Mitchell is currently good value at +105.
The Niners put up only 212 total yards in last week’s tilt with Green Bay. Their defense and special teams won that game. The offense will need to do a lot more this week to keep up with the Rams. They should be in good position to win if they can do that and play clean football. The 49ers were undefeated (7–0) when not throwing an interception this season, and they were 7–2 when committing less than 60 yards in penalties.
On the other side of this game, the Rams offense led by Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp has looked fantastic, though ball security issues from Cam Akers nearly cost them the game last week. Sloppy play is likely what will keep the Rams from winning this one, should they lose their seventh in a row. If the Rams can avoid turnovers (Stafford has not yet thrown a postseason interception) Los Angeles can win and cover this spread.
Kupp had an NFL-leading 13 regular season receiving touchdowns in the red zone, while the 49ers allowed 14 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers when defending in the red zone. All Los Angeles receivers are in play here, as 80% of the Rams touchdowns have come through the air this season. A Kupp anytime TD is -150, but you can still find value with an OBJ touchdown at +140.
Defensively, the Rams are a tough unit. Aaron Donald is tied for fourth in the league with 12.5 sacks this season. He’s also added 1.5 postseason sacks, while Von Miller has seven sacks in his last six games played. If this offense and defense can click at the same time, the Rams are going to the Super Bowl.
But first, they'll have to get through the underdogs that keep getting no respect. An interesting stat: Road dogs getting between 3 and 6 points have covered 57% of the time since 2019.
Does Kyle Shanahan have Sean McVay’s number, or will the Rams finally break through and punch their ticket to the big game? This one promises to be a good one.
