The San Francisco 49ers head to SoFi Stadium this weekend as 3.5-point underdogs according to the latest odds at SI Sportsbook. Kyle Shanahan’s team continues to get little respect, despite the fact that they have won the last six matchups vs. their divisional rivals—including a dramatic Week 18 comeback win that guaranteed their postseason berth. The Niners have been underdogs in every postseason matchup and will look to continue their dominance of the Rams on Sunday.
In order to do that, San Francisco will no doubt have to lean heavily on Deebo Samuel. The Niners have had tremendous success since deploying Deebo Samuel as a Swiss Army Knife. The wide receiver has averaged nearly eight carries per game since Week 10, including 28 carries across the past two contests for a total of 156 yards and two touchdowns. Jimmy Garoppolo will need to get the ball in Samuel’s hands to have any chance at another upset; the Niners are 11–7 when Samuel has more receptions than his average (4) since the 2019 season. Across the last three contests, Samuel has also accumulated 177 receiving yards and thrown a passing touchdown.
Jimmy Garoppolo will continue to be an effective game manager, but expectations are low that he will have a big game, as SISB has the under on his 1.5 passing TD prop at -130, and his passing yards are set at 232.5, with the under paying even money. As Jimmy G hasn’t thrown a touchdown in either postseason game, and hasn’t thrown more than one TD since Week 14, I am taking the under on his TD prop. He has a banged-up thumb, after all. And if he needs some help, Deebo can handle it.
Brandon Aiyuk will also get targets in this game, and Elijah Mitchell should find some success on the ground. The Rams have surrendered the most postseason rushing touchdowns (3) in the postseason. An anytime touchdown for Mitchell is currently good value at +105.
The Niners put up only 212 total yards in last week’s tilt with Green Bay. Their defense and special teams won that game. The offense will need to do a lot more this week to keep up with the Rams. They should be in good position to win if they can do that and play clean football. The 49ers were undefeated (7–0) when not throwing an interception this season, and they were 7–2 when committing less than 60 yards in penalties.
On the other side of this game, the Rams offense led by Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp has looked fantastic, though ball security issues from Cam Akers nearly cost them the game last week. Sloppy play is likely what will keep the Rams from winning this one, should they lose their seventh in a row. If the Rams can avoid turnovers (Stafford has not yet thrown a postseason interception) Los Angeles can win and cover this spread.
Kupp had an NFL-leading 13 regular season receiving touchdowns in the red zone, while the 49ers allowed 14 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers when defending in the red zone. All Los Angeles receivers are in play here, as 80% of the Rams touchdowns have come through the air this season. A Kupp anytime TD is -150, but you can still find value with an OBJ touchdown at +140.
Defensively, the Rams are a tough unit. Aaron Donald is tied for fourth in the league with 12.5 sacks this season. He’s also added 1.5 postseason sacks, while Von Miller has seven sacks in his last six games played. If this offense and defense can click at the same time, the Rams are going to the Super Bowl.
But first, they'll have to get through the underdogs that keep getting no respect. An interesting stat: Road dogs getting between 3 and 6 points have covered 57% of the time since 2019.
Does Kyle Shanahan have Sean McVay’s number, or will the Rams finally break through and punch their ticket to the big game? This one promises to be a good one.
