49ers quarterback Trey Lance is perhaps the most confounding player in the NFL.
He entered the league as a raw prospect who needed to play in live games to develop. He was tasked with doing so for a team that was ready to compete for a Super Bowl. Injuries have derailed his opportunities to string starts together, leaving him with just four starts as he enters his third year.
Some fans believe Lance should at least be backing up QB Brock Purdy, if not starting. Others believe the team should cut its losses and let the QB go posthaste. His performance in Saturday’s preseason game highlights why there’s such a stark divide.
Lance started out Saturday on the wrong foot. He threw an interception on a screen pass. Had another near interception in the middle of the field. Misfired a couple times and might’ve whiffed on a read or two. The first couple series where he looked like an undeveloped, young quarterback who still needed a lot of work.
When that happens the faction of the fan base that believes the team should release Lance gets a stack of evidence in their favor. When he plays like that, it doesn’t look like a player who can win games in the NFL, much less playoff games.
But then a switch flipped for his final couple series. He was decisive and accurate. His mobility and big arm were on display while he led a potential game-tying touchdown drive in the final five minutes, then a game-winning field goal drive in the final two minutes.
When he plays like that, the faction of the fan base that believes Lance should be starting gets a stack of evidence of their own. That version of Lance looks like the one the 49ers were hoping to get when they drafted him No. 3 overall. He looks like a quarterback that could land among the NFL’s elite.
It’s easy to see why both sides believe staunchly in their opinion.
The “Lance needs to go” side will point to his rocky starts as a sign that he’s not developing at all and that any start he makes for San Francisco would assuredly end in disaster.
The “Lance needs to start” side will point to the second half of his game and say that it’s evidence he develops as he plays, and that stringing a few starts together would allow him to consistently play at the level he played over the final 5:30 of Saturday’s game.
Unfortunately for the team, the only way to find out where he falls on the wide spectrum he presents is by letting him play. Playing him comes with a sizable risk though.
The 49ers believe Purdy can take them over the hump to hoist their sixth Lombardi Trophy. Lance may do that as well, but the floor is low enough that disaster is on the table. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is entering his seventh year and the window with this particular group of players is closing quickly. Risk aversion is understandable given what they know about Purdy, even if the potential reward is an elite signal caller.
The same goes for Sam Darnold as the backup. That he got snaps behind the first-team offensive line Saturday is likely a sign that he’s on track to grab the QB2 job. His ceiling may not be as high as Lance’s, but his floor based on what we’ve seen in the preseason is higher. It’s more risk aversion, albeit there’s risk in starting a QB with 55 interceptions in 55 career starts.
Ultimately Lance is still largely an unknown. The fact his preseason performances spray such high highs and such low lows illustrate the variance that’s keeping the 49ers from committing to him entering the 2023 season.
Perhaps he has a good week of practice leading up to the finale and then tears it up in the finale to give the coaching staff something to think about.
Until there’s something more concrete with Lance though where the fan base isn’t so clearly (and understandably) split, the team isn’t likely to make any major commitments to him as either the backup or the starter unless they’re forced to by availability ahead of him on the depth chart.
