The 49ers’ Week 13 showdown against the Miami Dolphins is one of the club’s first real tests of the season. Their wins over the Rams are looking less impressive, and their victory over the Chargers came against a depleted Los Angeles club.
Miami has their health relatively in order and they bring with them one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. In games started by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, they’re averaging 27.6 points per game – the third-highest mark in the league. Over their last four contests, all victories, they’re averaging a whopping 33.8 points per game.
They combine that offense with a defense that survives in the middle. They’re 19th in points allowed, 17th in yards allowed, 17th in defensive DVOA and tied for 17th in yards-per-play. A middling defense is all that’s really necessary to accompany an offense that’s liable to put up 30 points any time it takes the field.
That’s why they offer a unique challenge for the 7-4 49ers who’ve won four in a row. This isn’t a must-win game for San Francisco, but it most definitely matters when it comes to getting a barometer of just how good this team is when it isn’t facing some of the NFL’s more mediocre clubs.
If San Francisco is going to get a win at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday, they’ll need strong showings from these six players:
LB Fred Warner
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa lives in the middle of the field where his WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle do a ton of damage after the catch. Taking away those throws will be essential Sunday, and that’s where a player like Warner thrives. It may take an adjustment for Warner to get used to the depth of Miami’s quick passing game, but a big game from Warner in coverage would set off a domino effect that leads to a strong outing for the 49ers’ pass rush.
SS Talanoa Hufanga
Hufanga is important for two reasons. First, he’ll be one of the players with Warner tasked with eliminating or throwing off timing on those throws to the intermediate area of the field. Second, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins will take their shots and the Dolphins QB is completing an astronomical 63.9 percent of his throws 20-plus yards down the field. Tagovailoa will be one of the players taking away those deep throws and he can’t get caught being aggressive and letting receivers run in behind him.
RB Christian McCaffrey
We know what happened last time Deebo Samuel was out. McCaffrey racked up three touchdowns in a rout of the Rams. Samuel is questionable with a quad injury which means plenty of the onus will fall on McCaffrey to generate offense for San Francisco. The club may not lean on him a ton as a runner while he deals with a knee issue, but he should be plenty active as a receiver. One of the keys for San Francisco will be converting on third downs and keeping Miami’s offense on the sidelines – that’s where the McCaffrey’s production will be needed.
DE Samson Ebukam
Nick Bosa is rolling with sacks in five consecutive games, but the 49ers need some production from their other edge rushers. Miami’s offensive tackles are banged up and their presumed starters are not particularly awesome. Ebukam hasn’t had a sack since Week 5. If he can give Bosa some assistance by affecting the pocket and making Tagovailoa uncomfortable it would go a long way toward slowing down this high-octane Dolphins attack. The other thing Ebukam will need to be good with is setting the edge against the run. Miami will surely look to attack the edges with speed the way the Chiefs did, so Ebukam will have to thrive in that area as well.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo’s baseline performance is fine and good enough to win games. Sunday he needs to convert in the red zone and continue avoiding turnovers. One giveaway could swing what should be a close game, especially if it’s going to give Miami a short field. The red zone issue is going to come under a microscope Sunday though. Miami turns its red zone trips into touchdowns at a 64.1 percent clip – No. 7 in the NFL. San Francisco is at No. 16 at 55.6 percent. Some of that is play calling, but some of it is the QB. Garoppolo has to be sharp everywhere, but that’ll be especially true Sunday in the red area where field goals aren’t likely to be enough.
TE George Kittle
The 49ers’ offense is at its best when Kittle is rolling. They have to get him involved early against a Miami defense that doesn’t cover particularly well in the second level. Getting Kittle going with some early, easy targets and then a shot or two up the seam would make life much easier on Garoppolo and the rest of the offense. This is especially true if Samuel is out and Garoppolo needs to lean on another pass catcher he trusts. It’s no surprise that Kittle’s best game of the year in Week 10 against the Cardinals coincided with San Francisco’s best offensive showing of the season. They have to get Kittle involved.
