The San Francisco 49ers have officially moved on from quarterback Trey Lance.
According to multiple reports, the former third-overall pick has been traded to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2024 fourth-round pick.
It ends one of the more confusing NFL sagas in recent memory, as a Super Bowl contender in the 49ers traded three first-round picks to the Miami Dolphins in 2021 for the ability to trade Lance only to dump him two years later after he sat his rookie season, got injured last season and 2022 draft pick Brock Purdy emerged to take his place.
Lance lost out on San Francisco’s second quarterback spot to Sam Darnold, which put the wheels of this trade in motion.
Now, Lance will try to restart his career in Dallas and San Francisco will recoup a fourth rounder and move forward with Purdy and Darnold under center.
Let’s break down who won this trade between the 49ers and Cowboys.
The details
Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, here’s the compensation for both parties.
49ers get: A 2024 fourth-round pick
Cowboys get: QB Trey Lance
Compensation update: Cowboys are sending a fourth-round pick to the 49ers for Trey Lance, per league source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 25, 2023
San Francisco 49ers
It’s hard to really determine the long-term ramifications of trading Lance for the 49ers, as this move, on its face, looks like an absolute disaster for San Francisco.
However, the 49ers are a legitimate Super Bowl contender that has one of the best coaches in the game, typically drafts well and has a quarterback they really seem to like in Brock Purdy.
Everything is going well for the 49ers right now, which is why the franchise can weather a massive fiasco like trading three first-round picks to draft a quarterback you’d later trade for a fourth-round pick roughly two years later.
Getting a fourth is better compensation than some speculated for San Francisco, but the team also traded three first-round picks for a quarterback they just traded for a fourth-round pick. It’s a bad look even if it’s not the end of the world for the 49ers.
In the years to come, San Francisco will ultimately be judged for how much they accomplish with Purdy (or another starter) at the helm and how Lance does with his change of scenery. If Lance figures it out and becomes a good starter and San Francisco falters with Purdy or someone else, it makes this deal look even worse. If Lance isn’t able to ever win a starting gig, it just shows the 49ers admitting a massive defeat and moving on.
Either way, San Francisco won’t get any positive marks for this, even if this particular transaction is not worthy of a wholly failing mark. Other than getting a decent mid-round pick, this is a historic failure for one of football’s best teams. They’re just incredibly lucky the on-field project hasn’t suffered like it very easily could’ve. They just have to keep winning to brush this off past the brutal optics of the trade.
Trade grade: D
Dallas Cowboys
This move for Dallas is not nearly as simple as just finding a good backup for quarterback Dak Prescott. This really could be the Cowboys signaling that they might not be as tied to Prescott as a long-term starter as previously thought.
Lance is by no means a lost cause, and the Cowboys may want to get him in the building this fall to see how his development is going and see if he really can be a starting quarterback in the NFL with the right opportunity. Prescott will carry a stunning $59(ish) million cap hit for Dallas in 2024, and it’s entirely possible that the Cowboys want a full reset at coach and quarterback if the team fails to win the NFC this season after multiple attempts to do so with Prescott under center.
It’s not to say Lance would just walk into the job, but it’s also not to say that having someone like Lance couldn’t entice the Cowboys to trade Prescott to a new team for a windfall next offseason and designate it as a post-June 1 transaction. Over the Cap says that trade designation would save the Cowboys $34 million next summer, which would be very enticing for a new coaching staff in terms of long-term fiscal flexibility.
If the team really likes Lance’s potential and feels that he can reach it with the right situation in Dallas, there could be a very silent changing of the guard on the horizon with the Cowboys. Prescott has been a commendable starter for the Cowboys, but team owner Jerry Jones is not known for his patience and might want another big splash to change things up.
This is a big “if,” however. Lance would have to give the Cowboys a reason to hope in his potential for these dominoes to even get consideration to fall, but you don’t just trade a fourth-round pick for a backup quarterback before the season with a perfectly fine backup in Cooper Rush on the roster. Jones might be wanting to weigh his options for a post-Prescott future, and Lance could figure into that equation now.
Again, the Cowboys didn’t just make a move like this without at least some thought for the future. We have no idea where this goes, but it’s certainly intriguing. It’s a really solid move as it is, especially if Lance figures it out and can start down the road. Don’t underestimate where this could go.
Trade grade: B+
