After having a bye week to lick their wounds from the two previous defeats, the Minnesota Vikings are back in action, this time on the road. Minnesota takes on the Las Vegas Raiders in Allegiant Stadium at 3:05 p.m. CST.
The Vikings offense struggled mightily in their two losses just before the bye week. In weeks 11 and 12, the Vikings’ offense was tied for 29th in EPA/play with the Cleveland Browns and in front of only the Carolina Panthers and the New York Jets.
Since cutting bait with Josh McDaniels and that regime, the Raiders’ defense has come alive.
Minnesota is still firmly in the playoff picture as they currently hold the second wild-card spot and the sixth seed in the playoffs. But those two losses to the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears may loom large as these were chances to distance themselves from the pack.
Instead, they are fighting off three teams with the same 6-6 record as they hold, including the Green Bay Packers, for a shot at the playoffs. Every game matters and the Vikings need to capitalize on each game.
If the Vikings want to get back to their winning ways against the Raiders, the offense has to look a lot better than it did before the bye. To do that, they will need to follow these four keys to victory.
Emphasis on the edges
Getting Josh Dobbs in a rhythm should be priority number one on Sunday.
In the two-week magical run Dobbs had against the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, his adjusted EPA/play in the first half led the league…by a lot.
The difference between him and Dak Prescott, who was second, was more than the difference between Dak Prescott and Tyson Bagent, who was seventh.
Over the next two weeks, Dobbs’ first-half production dropped to 28th in the league, and the offense suffered mightily because of it.
For Dobbs to have the time necessary to get into a rhythm, there must be an emphasis on stopping Las Vegas’ pass-rush, specifically two-time Pro-Bowler Maxx Crosby. He has 11.5 sacks on the season, tied for sixth-most in the NFL with Trey Hendrickson and Micah Parsons. He’s pretty good.
But where the problem lies is that on the other side of him. While your plan centers around Crosby, defensive end Malcolm Koonce is starting to come into his own as a pass-rusher. In their game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Koonce earned a PFF grade of 91.4, second-highest among all edge defenders that week.
Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill have been one of, if not the, best tackle duo in the league. It will take one of their best efforts to keep Dobbs on time and the offense on script this week.
Attack the seams
The Raiders have played in their base nickel 4-2-5 package 74% of the time this season, mainly to get the most out of one of their better cornerback in Nate Hobbs. The versatile defensive back has proven that he can handle the responsibilities of both receivers that line up in the slot as well as tight ends.
That leaves two linebackers in the middle of the field, usually Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo with Luke Masterson occasionally spelling the latter.
With the return of Justin Jefferson, there will be an emphasis on utilizing the defensive backs on the outside. Whether it is Jefferson, Jordan Addison or K.J. Osborn, they are an immediate threat to make an explosive play vertically.
That leaves the underneath open for the running backs and the seams open for the tight ends. The Raiders are 28th in passing DVOA allowed to tight ends and 24th in passing DVOA allowed to running backs.
It will be up to Dobbs to stretch the Raiders vertically by hitting a deep shot, or at least showing that the deep ball is a threat, like the early shot to Jordan Addison against the Bears.
But if they can establish that the deep to intermediate throws on the outside must be defended, it will leave ample opportunity underneath the coverage.
Hang on to the football
Kevin O’Connell spoke to KFAN’s Paul Allen about his decision-making process which Allen called “aggressive by nature” in their weekly show ‘X’s and O’s’.
“I think it’s a critical thing and it’s not something that you can decide on Tuesday or Wednesday…because inevitably there’s 60 minutes on Sunday that tell the true story. Whether that’s four interceptions in a game and you’re deciding late in a game how aggressive you want to be throwing the football when you do know your defense has limited the team to not many explosive plays…you’re making decisions as an offense to limit risks knowing that you’re not completely at full capacity as far as personnel goes.”
While this quote also has tinges of missing Jefferson in the offense (We are getting there, I promise), another part of this quote made me think back to the end of Minnesota’s heartbreaking loss to Chicago on Monday Night Football.
If Dobbs takes better care of the football, could O’Connell feel comfortable enough to attempt to seal the game instead of relying on his defense to try to make that final stop in the lasting minutes?
That’s what turnovers do. They obstruct all progress. They’re the ice on your car’s windshield when you’re already running late for work. They’re the fog that descends over a ship just before they hit the coast.
Having success in the NFL is a difficult enough task without giving the opposition extra possessions and having to second-guess your decisions. The Vikings have 24 turnovers already and there are five games left to go.
Since 2017, the most turnovers any playoff team has had is 27, from last year’s Buffalo Bills and the 2020 Washington Football Team. The only reason that Washington got in, with an abysmal 7-9 record, is because someone had to represent the NFC East that season.
In conclusion, if Minnesota wants a shot at the playoffs this season, the turnovers have to stop, and they have to stop quickly.
Welcome back Justin Jefferson!
Now for the moment that Vikings fans have been waiting on since October 9th. Jefferson is active and ready to play for the Vikings.
Even though he’s missed seven games, Jefferson had 53 targets in the first five games. That’s two less than K.J. Osborn, who has only missed one game this season.
With the extra bye week to recover, there is no reason to think that Jefferson won’t be ready for his regular ten targets a-game workload. But with Kirk Cousins out and Dobbs being the presumed starter down the stretch, it will take some time for Dobbs to get used to Jefferson’s style of play.
Jefferson is such a unique talent with how quickly he can change direction and get in and out of breaks, all without slowing the pace of his route.
In his sitdown with Allen, O’Connell spoke about how he wanted this skill position group to be able to “maximize all five eligibles.” The best way to maximize all five eligible receivers is to have a bona fide number-one option that requires the defense’s attention.
We will see a few growing pains as Dobbs learns Jefferson’s route-running style but once the connection clicks and the ball gets into Jefferson’s hands consistently, it will be tough to stop this offense down the stretch.
