After a week of well-needed rest, the Minnesota Vikings go on the road to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders at 3:05 p.m. CST.
Minnesota has had a lot of changes throughout the year, new quarterbacks, pass catchers have had to step up, but one change that can be felt from game to game is the vast improvement of this Vikings’ defense.
At this very moment, Minnesota is eighth in EPA allowed per play and ninth in defensive success rate. They’re top-ten in defensive passing DVOA (10th), defensive rushing DVOA (6th) and total defensive DVOA (8th).
Compare that to last season’s 27th-ranked defensive passing DVOA, 18th-ranked defensive rushing DVOA and 24th-ranked total defensive DVOA.
This defense has been the engine on this team’s path to the playoffs and will have to continue to be as they look to crash the dance this season.
The Raiders have been playing better as an offensive unit but there are still areas that defensive coordinator Brian Flores can exploit. To get this team back on track, the defense must follow these four keys to victory against a Raiders team looking to play spoiler.
Keep Aidan O'Connell guessing
While keeping head coach Kevin O’Connell guessing would be a sight to see on the sideline, I’m referring to rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell making his fifth-ever start against Minnesota and an ever-creative Flores defense.
This season, we have seen this Vikings defense line up seven across the line and only have three of them rush the quarterback.
We have also seen all seven go after the quarterback and the deer-in-headlights-type look that follows. It will be that sort of versatility that will define the overall success of this defense.
This defense’s ability to make everything look the same, whether it’s an inverted Tampa-2 or an all-out fire blitz, they all look the same pre-snap. That kind of continuity can be nightmarish for a rookie quarterback who is looking for something, anything to gain an advantage pre-snap.
As long as they keep O’Connell guessing pre-snap, it will take him longer to get to his reads post-snap. When you hold the ball against an aggressive play-caller like Flores, you’re asking for bad things to happen.
Force the ball away from Davante Adams
The excitement around Minnesota builds with the return of Jefferson on the offensive side but in Vegas, they have their own bona fide game-wrecker at receiver.
Davante Adams has not had the year that you would expect from one of the best talents at the position. So far, he’s only had 69 receptions for 814 yards and four touchdowns.
These aren’t necessarily bad stats but Adams is a player who deserves to be in the discussions with the Tyreek Hills, Justin Jeffersons and Ceedee Lambs of the world. If anyone knows that, it’s Vikings fans who saw him put up about 70 yards and almost a full touchdown per game against Minnesota since his debut in 2014.
The Raiders cut bait with their head coach this season, so they have nothing to lose. They are playing with house money on both sides of the football. That means that their best play on most of their snaps will be getting the ball into the hands of Adams as quickly as possible.
Corner Byron Murphy Jr. will probably be tasked with keeping tabs on Adams. The Raiders will line up Adams both inside and out wide, Murphy’s versatility allows him to be a viable option to follow him around the field if that’s what the defense calls for.
Rally and tackle
The Vikings blitz the quarterback at a rate unlike any other team this season. Minnesota has sent 231 blitzes over the season. No other team has reached 200 yet through 14 weeks.
One of the easiest ways for offenses to combat their quarterback getting sped up is to get the ball out quickly to a receiver.
Behind most blitzes, there are receivers occupying the space vacated by the defensive coordinators’ blitzers. This makes rallying to the football and making open-field tackles that much more important to a defense like Flores’, and the Vikings have delivered.
Minnesota has the fourth-least missed tackles in the league with 49. The only teams with fewer are the Dallas Cowboys (39), the San Francisco 49ers (42) and the Kansas City Chiefs (48). All of these teams are ranked in the top ten in total defensive DVOA as well.
Force the ball into the air
Josh Jacobs, like Adams, is also not playing his best football this season. Jacobs and the Raiders are ranked 28th in rushing DVOA this season, despite Adams being sixth in yards and having the most rushing attempts in the season.
The Vikings boast one of the best rushing defenses, led by their nose tackle Harrison Phillips and his third-best run-stop win rate according to ESPN Analytics.
Since the departure of Josh McDaniels, the Raiders rushing offense did improve, but only from 31st in rushing EPA to 27th.
Even with that, forcing fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell to beat you through the air, especially with all of the different looks that Flores can give him, is a much easier task than stopping Jacobs, one of the better talents at the running back position.
Jacobs can break a long run like his 63-yard touchdown against Kansas City. All it takes is one wrong run fit. Keep the ball in the hand of the fourth-round rookie and let him make a mistake against one of the top ten defenses in the league.
