Geno Smith has done a splendid job leading the Seahawks offense these last two years. His contract is reasonable, his attitude is exactly what you would hope for from a QB1 and he’s easily the most qualified candidate to lead this team heading into the 2024 season. However, a lot of factors are working against his possible return.
For one thing, Smith lost his biggest supporter in the building after the team removed Pete Carroll as their head coach. Smith also has his relatively advanced age (he’s 33 years old now) and a very strong 2024 draft class at quarterback to contend with.
So, what should Seattle do with Smith? It’s a hot debate on Twitter right now with not a whole lot of nuance between the two camps – one of which that seems to believe Smith is an elite QB, and the other which is inexplicably desperate to see Drew Lock (or more accurately literally anyone but Smith) get a chance to start.
Let’s see if we can offer some better alternatives. Here are four scenarios to consider as the Seahawks approach a major deadline in regards to Smith’s contract – if he’s still on the roster one week from today he’ll get $12.7 million of his 2024 salary fully guaranteed.
Embrace Geno Smith as the guy, start him in 2024
The simplest path forward may be to simply do nothing – allow Smith’s eight-figure guarantee to hit the books and expect to continue starting him until either his performance drops off or they find somebody better. It’s really not a terrible idea, considering the three-year, $75 million contract he signed last offseason is very team friendly. Smith is not an elite (top-five) QB, but he’s not far from the top 10 and his salary is somewhere in the middle of the pack, which makes it a high-value deal.
Trade Geno Smith to the Bears for Justin Fields
This free agent quarterback class is as ugly in recent memory – unless they can sign Gardner Minshew to an even more team-friendly deal there’s literally nobody worth considering. A trade makes a lot more sene, though – and there’s one very-promising young QB who might be on the block. The Bears hold the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, which means they could decide to move on from Justin Fields. While his development has stalled thanks to poor coaching and a lack of supporting cast, Fields’ ceiling is about as high as any 2024 QB. The Seahawks could send Geno Smith to Chicago to reunite him with Shane Waldron, which would free the team up from having to draft a QB and allow them to trade down – which is the right move to make in any case. They’d have to attach some draft capital – perhaps as much as a third-round pick. To get Fields back in return would be well worth it, though.
Keep Geno Smith for now, but draft a quarterback
Our best guess as to what will happen this offseason is that they’ll keep Geno Smith but also take advantage of the depth of this year’s quarterback class. They wouldn’t have to pick one in the first round, either. There are enough quality prospects in this group that the Seahawks could wait until the third round or possibly even Day 3 to target one that they like. Then, they could sit behind Smith for a year to develop.
Cut Geno Smith for cap savings, draft a quarterback
Finally, the Seahawks could just decide to rip the band-aid off and get rid of Geno Smith this year in order to maximize their cap savings. According to Over the Cap, if they do decide to cut Smith before June 1, the team will save $13.8 million. However, they’d also be adding on $17.4 million to the dead money pile, which is likely to be catastrophic-sized after John Schneider is done reshaping this roster. If they wait until after June 1 the numbers are more palatable – they would save $22.5 million in cap room and add $8.7 million in dead money. Either way, they’d be leaning on starting a rookie that they pick in the draft.
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