What can the New Orleans Saints offense do to secure a win over the Detroit Lions in Week 13? What schematic decisions and points of emphasis will make a difference? Which vulnerabilities in the Detroit defense can they exploit?
Scoring more touchdowns would help.
Really, though: Derek Carr’s deficiencies in the red zone and inside the 10-yard line have been pronounced in recent weeks, and figuring out why he’s struggling so badly can make a difference on Sunday. But there are 80 yards to cover before the Saints can get in scoring position. With that in mind, here are four keys to victory we’re looking for from the New Orleans offense:
1
Ending drives in the end zone
The Saints can’t settle for field goals as often as Dennis Allen’s instincts tell him to — or as often as they’ve had to with the offense struggling to execute in the red zone. Much of that blame falls on Derek Carr. He’s been hit-or-miss on those tight window throws in scoring position throughout his pro career. But he isn’t the only one with dirty hands.
Normally-reliable veteran players must step up. Ryan Ramczyk can’t be fouled deep inside enemy territory (as happened twice last week against the Atlanta Falcons, leading to a pair of Blake Grupe field goals). Juwan Johnson can’t draw a flag for offensive pass interference from the 17-yard line. These guys have been there before and they need to play like it. So does Carr. It’s on the players on offense to execute as a unit, and it’s on Carr to lead the way as the quarterback.
This is a good game to shake back. The Lions have the third-worst red zone defense, allowing 24 of their 35 drives to end with touchdowns by the offense (68.6%). They’re prone to making mistakes in high-leverage situations like this and the Saints must take advantage of that.
2
Attacking the Lions through the air
Carr can’t be hesitant to try passes downfield, and he needs to do a better job putting the ball where his receivers can make a play on it. The Saints are averaging just 3 passes of 20-plus yards per game this season, which is beneath league average (3.2) and well short of what the NFL’s most explosive offenses manage (4.0 or more). Even if the Saints are shorthanded at receiver, they must test the Lions deep downfield.
Detroit’s pass defense is vulnerable. They’ve allowed the 13th-most passing yards per game this season (227.5) and they’re coming off a game in which Jordan Love threw at will on them, completing 22 of 32 passes for 268 yards with 3 touchdowns. That’s a stat line the Saints should be thrilled to see from Carr: effective and efficient passing with multiple touchdown-scoring drives.
3
Don't stubbornly stick to the run
The Saints want to be a team who runs the ball well, but they shouldn’t try to force the issue against the Lions. Detroit is a top-flight run defense allowing just 91.3 rushing yards per game (5th-fewest) and 3.9 yards per carry (8th-lowest). It would say a lot if the Saints are able to quickly find success on the ground, but if it’s not there it isn’t something they should waste downs pursuing.
It doesn’t help that the Saints have a mediocre rushing attack themselves. They’re averaging just 104.4 yards per game (19th) and, worse, 3.8 yards per carry (26th). They’re struggling to make headway and dialing up lots of runs anyway. It’s fine to admit Alvin Kamara has lost a step as a runner. He’s averaging just 1.2 yards after contact per attempt, the lowest number in his career, and he’s only forced 4 missed tackle as a runner this year after totaling 21, 29, 19, and 22 of them from 2018 to 2021. He’s still a talented player, but he’s never been a big-play threat on the ground, and what speed he did have in the open field has eluded him.
4
Backups can't let the moment be too big for them
This is the most important game of the year for players like A.T. Perry and Lynn Bowden Jr. — guys who are going to have to step up with injuries wrecking the receiving corps. Perry had his “welcome to the NFL” moments already between a dropped pass and slip-and-fall against the Minnesota Vikings, followed by his uncalled false start to kill a play last week in Atlanta. He must learn from those mistakes and make a play when the ball goes his way.
Bowden is an interesting player. He rose to prominence in college at Kentucky as a Wildcat quarterback, was drafted in the third round by the Raiders and traded after his rookie training camp. He’s bounced around the league after that until the Saints signed him this summer. Since then he’s earned more snaps by throwing his weight around as a blocker and running hard on decoy routes. He’s starting to see more touches each week and gained more yards on the ground (29) than anyone else has for the Saints this year. There’s roles for guys like him who are willing to do anything to help the team.
