If you haven’t hopped on the Detroit Lions’ bandwagon yet, I assure you: There’s still plenty of room for you to plant your butt.
Talking about a good team like Dan Campbell’s group isn’t as straightforward as it seems. When an organization like the Lions has been traditionally mired in the NFC doldrums, it’s difficult to shake off the perception they have turned a corner. Narratives, particularly for any franchise that is a bottom feeder, are challenging to shake. We do not usually like to disrupt the NFL’s hierarchy, which has a built-in assumption of playing well every week and no longer having the breathing room for missteps. Teams in that upper echelon are held to a different standard, a picture of consistency and entertainment in one.
After starting the 2023 NFL season 5-1, the Lions have earned their ticket into pro football’s most exclusive club. Here’s a screenshot of the Lions’ overall resume:
- Their 13-3 record over their last 16 games is the organizations’s best 16-game stretch since they had multiple Hall of Famers like Dick LeBeau, Richard “Night Train” Lane, and Joe Schmidt in the mid-20th century.
- Their 5-1 record is tied for the NFL’s best with the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, and Miami Dolphins.
- They have yet to lose a game on the road (3-0), the hallmark of any mentally tough squad.
- Detroit is the only team to beat the Chiefs, the defending Super Bowl champions, since December 4, 2022. Detroit is also the first team to beat Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium — no small feat — since October 16, 2022.
- Aside from their close win over the Chiefs and sole narrow defeat to the Seattle Seahawks, Detroit has won every game by at least 14 points. As such, their +55 point differential ranks fifth in the NFL.
- Lest I forget, they’re 28-12 against the spread in their last 40 games, the best mark in the NFL.
That is not the ledger of a team ready for merely meager offerings in the playoffs. That is what a championship-caliber team resembles: one that is capable of hanging with anyone in the sport.
The Lions have arrived. We’d do well to start taking their Super Bowl 58 chances seriously. In a year where there doesn’t appear to be a heavyweight without serious drawbacks, the Lions deserve legitimate consideration for their first Lombardi Trophy in franchise history. Let’s dive in and examine a few reasons why Detroit has finally ascended to the NFL’s cream of the crop.
1
Jared Goff is playing some of the most efficient football of his career
Contrary to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s (unpopular) belief, Goff being labeled a “poor man’s Matt Ryan” is an excellent development for the Lions. Because that standard of play is still a borderline Pro Bowl quarterback conducting a versatile offense with the capacity to take the ball out of the air and let it air out. With a loaded cadre of weapons, a great offensive line, and quality coaching, Goff is more than adept enough to take the Lions all the way. He is not purely a product of Sean McVay’s (sometimes literal) quarterback whispering. He does indeed belong.
This wasn’t always readily apparent. Goff was supposed to be a throwaway, the embodiment of No. 1 overall pick leftovers in the deal that sent Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams. In his time with Detroit (37 starts since 2021), Goff has thrown nearly 60 touchdown passes, over 9,300 yards, and between interceptions and fumbles lost, he’s turned the ball over on just 28 occasions. His Lions career passer rating is 97.2 — a mark that would have him sitting in the top 10 among qualified quarterbacks in almost any full campaign.
It’s still early, but 2023 appears to be Goff’s growing magnum opus. According to Ben Baldwin’s Expected Points Added (EPA) and Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) model with RBDSM.com, Goff’s composite EPA and CPOE of 0.151 is fifth-best in the NFL. Only veritable MVP candidates in Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes rank higher. Goff’s 8.0 yards per pass attempt are the second highest of his career, and he’s completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for the first time ever — suggesting that he consistently tests defenses and, at the very least, gives his playmakers a chance to make magic happen.
Heck, Goff might even have an MVP case of his own:
Goff has always been miscast as an NFL starting quarterback. He is not the kind of backyard-scrambling face of the franchise like the guys in Kansas City and Buffalo. But he doesn’t have to be, and you don’t need someone like that to make deep playoff runs. Goff works well within a structure, he generally keeps his offense ahead of the chains, and there’s enough juice in his arm to open up offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s entire playbook. That is assuredly better than most signal callers taking snaps every Sunday.
Goff is long past the days of needing training wheels. He can steer this Honolulu Blue runaway train all by himself.
2
Amon-Ra St. Brown has evolved into the NFL's premier slot weapon
Every great offense has a special safety valve.
You know, the receiving playmaker who is a sure thing on money downs, accustomed to gaining 12 yards when his team needs 11. The Andy Reid-Mahomes Chiefs are nothing without Travis Kelce’s ability to find seams in the clutch. The Sean McDermott-Josh Allen Buffalo Bills would be in tatters if they didn’t have the option to tell Stefon Diggs to “smash.” In Miami, Mike McDaniel isn’t viewed as a revolutionary offensive scholar if he doesn’t have future Hall of Fame speedster Tyreek Hill.
The same concept applies to the Dan Campbell-Goff Lions. Without Amon-Ra St. Brown working the middle of the field with ingenious aplomb, we don’t think of Detroit’s offense as an unstoppable silver and blue machine. Without St. Brown, this Lions’ attack is a glorified pop gun — kind of loud and annoying but really unthreatening when you think about it.
St. Brown wasted no time producing for the Lions. Since his rookie season in 2021, the “diminutive” playmaker (he is a listed and quite stout 6-foot, 202 pounds) has caught over 234 passes on 315 targets. He’s eclipsed 2,500 receiving yards in just 30 starts and has 14 touchdowns to his name. Better yet, his 139 catches for first downs in his approximate 2.5 seasons puts him in similar company to notable names like Ja’Marr Chase (149) and A.J. Brown (136) in that same time frame. On occasion, the Lions literally run their offense through St. Brown, like in Sunday’s win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he caught a career-high 12 passes for 124 yards and a score:
Amon-Ra St. Brown in the win:
12 REC
124 YDS
1 TDCareer-high in receptions and yards. pic.twitter.com/8haFZCSYj1
— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 15, 2023
It’s high time St. Brown started being mentioned alongside receivers who assuredly see a lot more headlines week to week. Every individual offensive engine deserves as much respect. Without question, the title of the NFL’s best primary slot receiver now belongs to him.
3
They do all the little things
It’s a cliche and is somewhat overwrought, but platitudes hold firm because they’re true. To win in the NFL, your team must do the little things. Everyone can make flashy plays. Everyone can gather excellent, overwhelming talent on paper. But the buck eventually stops somewhere if your squad isn’t on its Ps and Qs. The ceiling on what your team can accomplish becomes as low as the one inside a shoddy studio apartment.
The Lions do not have this issue. They are all the way bought in on Dan Campbell’s unifying message. From Cameron Sutton to Brian Branch, their defensive backs put a full foot forward in run support. Everyone is a willing and capable tackler who understands the importance of team defense. On offense, even when they’re not touching the ball — especially when they’re not touching the ball — every skill player is invested in selling out on blocking in space.
Folks, Craig Reynolds is the Lions’ third-string running back. He has played an overwhelming amount of his 2023 snaps on special teams (over 41 percent). This is a player who only features on offense in emergency situations, at best. But when St. Brown needed a key block to spring him for a third-and-long touchdown against Tampa Bay, it was Reynolds who flew in like a madman and sent cornerback Carlton Davis to the moon.
If a third-string special teamer is making blocks like this, then it’s obvious the importance of fundamentals has been repeatedly emphasized in Allen Park:
Craig Reynolds, certified people mover 😤#DETvsTB | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/pGn8jPQloQ
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) October 15, 2023
The players on this Lions team go 100 miles per hour every sequence, and they play for one another. That matters. That is what distinguishes middling squads from those built for the winter. If we’re talking about healthy cultures that can sustain well into the dregs of January, it doesn’t get much better than what Dan Campbell’s built.
4
Detroit's trenches are formidable on both sides of the ball
Football is a simple game. You either move people up front, or you lose. Case closed. The Lions have nothing to worry about because general manager Brad Holmes has constructed offensive and defensive lines that would be the envy of most professional football teams.
Let’s start with that five-man wall on offense.
Detroit is Exhibit A about what it means to invest assets in the arguably most important positional group on any roster. Between Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, Graham Glasgow, and Penei Sewell, the Lions’ starting offensive line features three former first-round picks (Decker, Ragnow, and Sewell). Ragnow and Sewell are potential All-Pros in the conversation for the best at their respective center and right tackle positions. Decker is a top-half starter anywhere. And yes, former mid-round selections in Jackson and Glasgow don’t possess the same pedigree. Still, they remain Pro Bowl-caliber players who keep Detroit’s offensive scheme flexible because they have few glaring limitations.
Now, please note Sewell taking out not but two Buccaneers defenders with a vital block below. This is a regular occurrence:
.@13_cjr on the move #DETvsTB | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/kV4Cj6Kl3f
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) October 15, 2023
The numbers bear out a similar refrain. Pro Football Focus believes Detroit has the league’s second-best offensive line. Said unit has catalyzed the NFL’s seventh-ranked rushing offense (over 124 yards a game) and the fourth-ranked passing attack (nearly 260 yards a game). Part of the reason Goff has been so efficient as a quarterback is that he’s one of the league’s least consistently pressured signal callers. According to SIS and The 33rd Team, among quarterbacks who have started at least four games in 2023, Goff’s percentage of snaps under pressure at 54.2 is a mere ninth in the NFL. He’s been pressured just 33 total times, which would also comfortably place him in the top 10. Oh, and Goff’s 4.7 sack percentage sits at a robust sixth.
Put another way: The Lions create truck lanes for their running backs and keep the scuff marks off Goff’s blue jersey to a minimum. Normally, that’s a solid formula for winning! But we mostly already knew the Lions’ offensive line was great. It’s the defensive line that has separated itself as a unit worth writing home about in 2023.
Every conversation about this group usually starts and ends with Aidan Hutchinson. After a Defensive Rookie of the Year caliber campaign last season, the former top-2 pick has taken the next expected step in his ascendance. Hutchinson already has eight quarterback hits and 4.5 sacks in six games. That puts him on pace for roughly 20 quarterback hits and nearly 13 sacks a year after amassing just 15 and 9.5 in both categories, respectively, as a rookie. He also continues to be an uncommon playmaker for a listed 6-foot-7, 265-pound monster. The young man — again, a massive defensive end of a human being — has started just 23 NFL games and has four interceptions. Uh, what???
Ladies and gentlemen: Do you know how hard it is for defensive positions who usually see the ball more — like, say, cornerbacks — to even get that many picks in just over a year’s time? So, yes, Hutchinson is not normal. Not everyone can read short dump-offs and screens and make one-handed gloveless interceptions as he can:
HUTCH ONE-HANDED INTERCEPTION. WOW.
📺: #CARvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/LxW25sxi72 pic.twitter.com/9aPxgtBIT7— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2023
It helps Hutchinson’s case that he’s no longer a one-man show. Between defensive tackles Alim McNeill and Benito Jones and Hutchinson’s edge running mate on the other side, Charles Harris, this is an underrated and deep Lions’ four-man unit. They also come at you in sound waves when factoring in pass rush and run-stuffing swingmen like Romeo Okwara and Isaiah Buggs.
The Lions are bullies who unabashedly take the opposition’s lunch money because of the star power and depth of their offensive and defensive lines. The first and last thing every contender should want is to be a mean bully.
