The Houston Texans season is over.
After a storybook run over former player and rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans, including likely Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year performances from first round picks C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson, their momentum came to a screeching halt on Saturday night in a 34-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
The Texans not only looked schematically outclassed but the talent differential between their own roster and the top of the AFC had never been more apparent all season. The few bright spots that Houston had ridden to 10-7 and an AFC South victory were totally focused on and exploited by John Harbaugh and the Ravens veteran staff.
Houston now transitions to a pivotal offseason. They’ll be considered legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2024 and general manager Nick Caserio will be tasked with surrounding Stroud with talent that can compete with teams like Baltimore and Kansas City.
Before transitioning to the offseason, there are four upper-level takeaways from the AFC divisional round that the Texans should remember:
1
The run game must improve
The meltdown on Saturday began once Baltimore’s defense fully keyed into the fact that Houston’s running game wasn’t a meaningful threat. It allowed them to consistently place Stroud in third-and-long situation and bring both designer blitz and exotic coverages at the rookie quarterback.
From there on, the game was hopeless.
How dreadful was the Houston running game yesterday? Devin Singletary carried 9 times for 22 yards.
He was stuffed on 5 of his 9 carries. He rushed for -.49 EPA/carry, the lowest value of any starting back in a game for Houston this year.
Whole unit has to improve #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/J3RzSNsRKV
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 21, 2024
If the Texans want to avoid the same fate, they’ll have to run the ball much more efficiently in 2024. Nine carries for 22 yards from your starting running back is not a recipe for success in today’s league and it was a problem that, although Stroud frequently overcame, plagued them throughout the season.
Houston will have opportunities to add a dynamic running back in free agency or the draft and it’s reasonable to expect the offensive line should improve in Year 2 of the system. Between free agent targets, internal improvement, and intentional schematic tweaks, the run game hopefully takes a leap forward next year.
2
C.J. Stroud needs more weapons
Nico Collins looked like a legitimate No. 1 receiver all year. The Ravens treated him like one and made sure he wouldn’t break the game.
There just weren’t other receivers this year for Stroud. Tank Dell, despite missing the second half of the season, was a huge contributor for the Texans when he played with Stroud. His absence on Saturday, against an elite defense, was more than a reminder of the depth behind Houston’s top-2 receivers.
John Metchie played 72.3% of offensive snaps yesterday and received 0 targets.
Pretty descriptive of where he is right now and the state of Houston's receiving group without Tank Dell. Wouldn't hesitate to add to that core over the off-season with the right talent. #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 21, 2024
John Metchie ranked second among receivers with a 72.3% offensive participation and mustered zero targets from his star quarterback. No other receiver than Collins had more than 10 yards on the contest, Robert Woods had six, while tight end Dalton Schultz and running back Devin Singletary were the other leading receivers.
Houston needs to find more weapons outside of their receiver duo and ensure that defenses can’t so structurally key on the connection between Stroud and Collins. Both free agency and the draft will offer ample opportunity to add an elite play maker there. Who the Texans choose to target will likely tell fans a great deal about who they want to be in 2024.
3
DeMeco Ryans was the right hire
The best defensive minds in the NFL are ones that can change their philosophy based on matchups. Head coach DeMeco Ryans certainly showed he was one of them against Baltimore.
The Texans defense blitzed 5+ on 21 of Lamar Jackson's drop backs yesterday, 11 plays were 6+
Those plays generated 11 pressures and 3 sacks for Houston.
It was an inspired gameplan against the MVP from DeMeco, just couldn't holdup on the field for that much time #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 21, 2024
Despite not being a blitz heavy team throughout all of 2023, the Texans leaned into the blitz in a major way with 21 drop backs sending additional pass rushers at Lamar Jackson. It was a huge part of how they kept the game even in the first half at just 10-10.
Eventually, the defense was exhausted from constantly being on the field as Houston’s offense failed to sustain drives. However, the courage of the game plan and the overall fortitude of defensive structure in the last three games for the Texans is a reminder they found more than just a great leader of men.
4
Derek Stingley will be a force in 2024
Derek Stingley is going to change everything Houston does defensively.
This week, after previously shadowing for the first time and shutting down Amari Cooper, he shadowed Baltimore receiver Zay Flowers and largely shut him out of the game. He aligned across from Stingley on 85.7% of his routes and allowed just two receptions for 22 yards. Jackson only tried to target him three times while Stingley was in coverage.
Derek Stingley lined up across from Zay Flowers on 85.7% of his routes yesterday.
He surrendered just 2 catches for 22 yards on 3 targets.
Feels safe to say his ability to shadow is one DeMeco Ryans will incorporate consistently next year in Houston's defense #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 21, 2024
Stingley’s evolution not only signals that opposing receivers will have challenging days ahead in 2024, but also that the Texans will be able to use exotic coverages moving forward. Watching their secondary, with potential additions in 2024 free agency, will be worthwhile as a potential elite unit next season.
