The Minnesota Vikings host the New Orleans Saints on Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium for the next chapter in this already noteworthy season.
What Josh Dobbs was able to pull off against the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday was truly remarkable, and deserves the fanfare that has received this season.
But now, it’s time to come back down to earth and face this top-ten defense from New Orleans. This team is aggressive in their approach, and they don’t hide what they do. But what they do, they do it very well.
Even in what feels like a down year for the Saints’ defense, they are still ninth in defensive DVOA.
While winnable, this game against the Saints will be a dogfight for this offense. For Minnesota to come out on top, they will need to follow these four keys to victory.
Move linebackers with pre-snap motion
The New Orleans Saints run an attacking 4-3 defense and have since Dennis Allen became the defensive coordinator for the Saints in 2015.
This aggressive mindset has allowed them to be a top-ten offense for four out of the last six years, including the last three seasons (2020-2022).
However, their aggressive philosophy allows for a small margin of error when it comes to where they are positioned pre-snap and post-snap. This is where Kevin O’Connell’s use of pre-snap motion can bring an advantage.
Due to them being so aggressive, any motion that could give the offense an advantage outside the tackles has to be accounted for by the linebackers. So, on most motions, the linebackers have to shift toward the motion, leaving open space on the opposite side of the motion.
O’Connell can use that space for quick throws, backside counter runs, creating more space for a one-on-one matchup, etc. Minnesota just has to make sure that New Orleans continues to respect that motion.
Receivers must win their one-on-one matchups
The league average for defenses using cover-one (man across the board, one free safety roaming) is 19.4%. The Saints run cover-one at a clip of 31.5%, third-most in the NFL behind the Cleveland Browns and the Dallas Cowboys.
They trust their cornerbacks to smother the outside receivers, and for good reason. It works.
The Saints’ top-three corners (Alontae Taylor, Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo) have been targeted 146 times this season. They have only allowed 86 completions. That’s good for a completion percentage allowed of 56.8%. That would be the second-best completion percentage allowed in the NFL, just above the Cleveland Browns at 55.4%.
This is no easy feat that we are asking, especially with Justin Jefferson not designated to return. But, that is what needs to be done from the outside receivers to get the victory.
That means that Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and Brandon Powell will have to find ways to win their matchups and find space for Dobbs to fit the ball.
Establish the run early
The philosophy of the defense starts and ends in defending the run. The front four of the Saints are the primary gatekeepers of the run game, but they lost a lot of guys to free agency this past off-season.
While their defense is still dominant, they are 17th in rushing DVOA allowed, a significantly low number for New Orleans.
That being said, they are vulnerable to the run game, it is just up to Minnesota to take advantage.
The loss of Cam Akers to a ruptured Achilles is crushing in a week like this, where they could use a few of his explosive outside runs to keep New Orleans honest. However, second-year running back Ty Chandler has been itching to prove himself as a reliable commodity in the Vikings committee of running backs.
His ability to accelerate in open space can give him a chance to offset some of the explosion lost from Akers.
But the onus will lay at the feet of Alexander Mattison, who has looked better in the past few weeks, as the offense has progressed.
This offense will be relying on this one-two punch to help take some of the pressure off of Dobbs and keep this defense on their toes. O’Connell likes to run play-action, but that can only be effective with an efficient run game.
Get Dobbs in a rhythm
Dobbs was thrown into the fire for his first start against a top-ten defense in their own right in the Atlanta Falcons. Other than some really bad growing pains (a safety and two lost fumbles), he was playing at a high level. A high enough level to receive NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for last week’s performance.
So, the thinking would be that with an entire week of preparation, things will go even better.
It’s not that simple.
Dobbs will need to get into a rhythm early to be effective. While last week’s performance was assuring of his abilities to lead this offense, he is still new to this offense and the nuances behind it.
There is no doubt in my mind that Dobbs will keep improving as he learns the offense, but there will be growing pains that will come with it.
So, getting him in a rhythm early will be pivotal, especially with a defense as aggressive as the Saints.
