Barring a massive trade out of the round, the Green Bay Packers will make a pick in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft in eight days. Currently, the Packers hold the No. 15 overall pick.
What will general manager Brian Gutekunst do to kick off the first draft of the Jordan Love era?
Here are the four most likely scenarios for the Packers in the first round:
Trade down
Given the prospects likely available at No. 15, the Packers’ roster needs and an acceptance of the rebuilding situation, this year might be an ideal one to trade down and acquire more draft capital. The Packers should get something this year out of the Aaron Rodgers trade, and they are in decent shape in terms of capital already, but moving down and picking up another Day 2 or early Day 3 pick probably makes the most sense, especially if the Packers are targeting a tight end in the first round. Move back, get an extra pick, take a player in the 20s and then get aggressive on Day 2. General manager Ted Thompson traded out of the first round and took a receiver by the name of Jordy Nelson in 2008, the first year of the Aaron Rodgers era.
Take an edge rusher
It’s certainly possible that the best player available at No. 15 will be an edge rusher. Dane Brugler’s big board at The Athletic has five edge rushers in the top 21 players, including four in the top 11. Most are expecting four quarterbacks to come off the board before No. 15, putting edge rusher right in range of the Packers. Even if Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson are off the board, one (or more) of Lukas Van Ness, Nolan Smith and Myles Murphy could be available at No. 15. Murphy and Van Ness are excellent fits based on size and athleticism. Edge rusher isn’t a pressing need for 2023, but it’s one of the game’s most valuable positions, and the Packers have done well in terms of keeping the developmental pipeline flowing even with established starters in place (see: taking Rashan Gary at No. 12 after signing Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith). A first-round edge rusher could be a rotational player early on and then the future replacement of Smith, who turns 31 in November.
Take a pass-catcher
There is no bigger need on the Packers’ roster than pass-catcher. Green Bay has three receivers with legitimate NFL experience and zero tight ends with legitimate starting experience, creating a massive need for help at both positions. A wide receiver to team with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs or a Day 1 starter at tight end makes sense, but this class is limited on legitimate first-round options at receiver (is Jaxon Smith-Njigba the only real fit?) and taking a tight end in the first round is risky business. Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Darnell Washington and Luke Musgrave could all be options for the Packers, although it might make more sense to trade back if a tight end is the target in the first round. The team did extensive work on the tight end class before the draft. Also, it’s worth noting that the Packers took an off-ball linebacker at No. 22 (Quay Walker) last year, so positional value isn’t necessarily a hurdle for a tight end. The Packers also wanted to move into the first round to take Watson last year, so breaking the first-round receiver streak is certainly possible.
Take an offensive tackle
An investment along the offensive line can’t be ruled out, especially at offensive tackle. David Bakhtiari might be entering his final year in Green Bay, and Yosh Nijman will be an unrestricted free agent in 2024. Making sure the offensive line’s premium position is taken care of long term could be a top priority in this draft, and Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson Jr., Broderick Jones and Darnell Wright provide no shortage of options for the Packers in the first round. Getting a pass-catcher can wait, especially in a class with depth at tight end and receiver, and more often than not, investing in the big guys along the line of scrimmage is a smart way of approaching the first round. That is especially true when a young quarterback is about to take over. Then again, the Packers have four players capable of starting at tackle (Bakhtiari, Nijman, Zach Tom, Elgton Jenkins), plus three developmental players they like (Rasheed Walker, Caleb Jones, Luke Tenuta).
