It seems impossible for the Washington Commanders (4-7) to upset the Dallas Cowboys (7-3) on Thanksgiving Day.
The Commanders are coming off an embarrassing 31-19 loss to the New York Giants, where they turned the ball over six times. This was one week after the Cowboys destroyed the Giants by 32 points. It was Washington’s second loss to the wounded and hapless Giants in four weeks.
So it was no surprise when oddsmakers listed Dallas as the biggest favorite in Week 12.
Washington has been a considerable underdog before and won. The Commanders were also a double-digit favorite in Week 11 — and lost by 12.
Who knows what to expect from this version of the Commanders, particularly as Ron Rivera likely enters his final stretch as head coach.
Can Washington upset Dallas? Of course. This is the NFL, and “Any Given Sunday” is real.
We’ve identified four things the Commanders must do to pull off the upset.
It's all about the quick game
When offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy focuses on the quick passing game with quarterback Sam Howell, the Commanders have offensive success. It keeps the chains moving, gets the ball out of Howell’s hands quicker and protects the offensive line. Washington frustrated the Eagles and Seahawks with this approach. To beat Dallas, the Commanders can’t have Howell taking deep drops and scanning the field. Washington’s passing game must be quick and decisive.
Find a running game
Dallas has an excellent defense, but you can have success on the ground. The Cowboys are No. 15 in run defense against a weak schedule. Opponents are averaging 4.2 yards per attempt, which is 16th in the NFL. If Washington comes into this game with its typical game plan of throwing the ball 50 times, it’s a recipe for disaster. Do you really want this offensive line blocking Micah Parsons & Co. on 50 dropbacks? Additionally, cornerback DaRon Bland has four pick-sixes, so Howell can’t be reckless.
Washington running back Brian Robinson Jr. has been excellent this season. He just doesn’t have enough rush attempts. Bieniemy’s plans are usually solid, but sometimes you have to tweak that approach based on the opponent. This is one of those weeks. Robinson is capable of having a strong rushing game vs. Dallas.
Block Micah Parsons
Good luck. Left tackle Charles Leno Jr. gets a lot of grief, but he’s not nearly as bad as some online lead you to believe. But he struggles against twitchy pass rushers. Giants edge Kayvoon Thibodeaux has gotten the best of Leno over the last two years. Thibodeaux is solid, but he’s not Micah Parsons. Parsons is the player Washington thought it was getting in Chase Young back in 2020.
He has 3.5 sacks in four games against Washington. Parsons isn’t Dallas’ only pass rusher. Dorance Armstrong, DeMarcus Lawrence and Sam Williams can also cause headaches. If you can somehow keep Parsons in check, that’s a great start.
Make the Cowboys drive the field by limiting the big play
This is easier said than done, especially if your defense is as bad as Washington’s. The Giants couldn’t get explosive plays against anyone until they played the Commanders. The Cowboys are loaded on offense. Led by quarterback Dak Prescott, Dallas has an explosive running back in Tony Pollard and four playmakers at wide receiver.
If the Commanders can find some way to limit the explosive plays, they have a chance. If not, well, it could get ugly. No one said it was going to be easy.
