Sometimes it can be hard to deviate from the norm when it comes to NFL draft player evaluations. Straying from the herd is difficult when so many in the herd have earned the trust and respect with their past evaluations.
Even so, there are instances every draft season where I feel strongly enough about a player evaluation that doesn’t conform to the general consensus to plant a flag in a different field from the herd. In some cases, it proves prescient. In others, the herd gets the last laugh. I’d rather miss by trusting my own eyes than being misled by others.
Here are four 2023 NFL draft prospects where I just don’t see the validity of the high rankings or the pre-draft hype.
Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Sometimes when cooking up a mock draft, it can be arduous to keep personal thoughts about a prospect aside. That’s the case with Van Ness.
In the latest mock draft I wrote here, I projected Van Ness at No. 10 overall to the Philadelphia Eagles. A couple of days later, NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah made the same projection. It’s a very realistic projection, for better or for worse.
In my opinion, it’s for the worse. It’s not that Van Ness lacks the potential to play to that level. The physical tools are obvious, and he doesn’t lack effort or have any off-field concerns that we’re aware of. He’s just not anywhere close to that caliber of an actual football player, not yet.
Iowa marches to its own drummer, but the fact a player with his upside and potential never started a single game over several Hawkeyes who won’t ever sniff the USFL is difficult to overlook. Arhythmic coaching approach (not meant negatively–Iowa’s defense was fantastic) aside, Van Ness just isn’t there as a player.
The lack of rhythm and choreography in Van Ness’s game stands out. Van Ness flashes some understanding of how to win with power over either shoulder of a tackle or a guard, and he’s tenacious. But there’s almost never a plan beyond “run real fast into the blocker and see what happens”.
Van Ness is both quick and fairly explosive, but he lacks body control to gather himself at the point of attack. A quarter of his 2022 production came in one game, against hopelessly overmatched Nevada. There’s a good football player in Van Ness. His game (playing outside) reminds me some of former Texans and Eagles EDGE Connor Barwin, the No. 46 pick of the 2009 draft, when Barwin came out of Cincinnati. I’d take Van Ness at No. 46 this year based on his potential. Thirty-something picks higher? Hard pass.
Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon
Sewell was projected as high as a top-15 pick before the 2022 season. The Ducks LB was coming off an outstanding 2021 season where he racked up 114 total tackles, 8.5 TFLs and four PDs in 14 games. Being the little brother of Lions Pro Bowl RT Penei Sewell didn’t hurt, either.
Alas, the 2021 version of Noah Sewell was nowhere to be found in 2022. His productivity plummeted, and the game tape doesn’t hide the reasons why. From my Lions Wire draft profile on Sewell from before the NFL Scouting Combine:
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Stiff lower body that really shows when Sewell is forced to change directions
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Frequently runs himself out of the play by overreacting to initial movement (see Colorado and Arizona games in ’22); more of a guesser than an instinct-driven run defender
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Falls off tackles instead of wrapping and sinking his weight; often aims too high as a tackler, especially when in pursuit
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Often a liability in coverage outside the tackle box and in man coverage; change-of-direction and body control at full speed are both below-average
All hope is not lost for Sewell. He’s still just 20 years old and has proven to be a diligent worker and high-character player. However, the game film from 2022 is not indicative of a player who should be drafted anywhere before the 6th round for the modern NFL. Gambling some 100-150 draft slots earlier than that is not something I can justify, not even with his pedigree.
Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
Musgrave is an inherently difficult evaluation because he missed almost all of his final season at Oregon State with a knee injury. He wasn’t used extensively by the Beavers’ offense beforehand, either.
His athletic profile legitimately draws raves. Guys 6-foot-6, 253 pounds and can run a 40-yard dash in 4.6 seconds with his explosive traits don’t grow on trees. It flashed in his game film from 2021 and early in 2022 when Musgrave got opportunities out of the slot, too. It leads many pundits to trumpet Musgrave as the top TE in a very impressive overall class and a likely top-40 pick.
Again, I totally understand it. I just didn’t see that caliber of player–at all–during Senior Bowl week in Mobile. Musgrave is a lot more supersized slot receiver than he is a tight end, even as a pure flex/move TE. His blocking wasn’t even rudimentary level; hand placement, footwork, and strength were all extraordinarily below-average. I’m not sure he won a single pass protection rep or blocking opportunity all week. I could live with that if the receiving game were overwhelming.
It wasn’t, unfortunately. Musgrave showed a poor ability to adjust to throws away from his frame and didn’t sustain a couple of catches through contact. Musgrave was stiffer and straight-linish as a route-runner than expected. Granted he’s coming off months of inactivity from a knee injury; that is necessary context.
Am I reading too much into three days in Mobile? Maybe. It wouldn’t be the first time I’m guilty of that (hello Danny Watkins!). But in a rich TE class, taking a lofty chance on a player with Musgrave’s profile and relative accomplishment is a tough sell. I expect Musgrave will be drafted in the second round. I’m not writing his name on the draft card in the top 90 picks.
Tanner McKee, QB, Stanford
McKee is fairly consistently projected as a Day 2 prospect. He’s often the No. 6 QB off the board in mock drafts, even going ahead of Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker in some recent ones.
I don’t rank McKee close to that level. The size and arm strength justify the hopeful promise. He’s 6-foot-6 and his right arm is part rocket launcher; his ability and willingness to make tight-window throws in the intermediate passing game is impressive. McKee isn’t unathletic, and he did indeed struggle with a weirdly conceived offense with a substandard (for Stanford) receiving corp outside of Michael Wilson, who missed half the season due to injury. Those are valid disclaimers in McKee’s defense.
Having said that, he really struggles under pressure. McKee doesn’t functionally utilize his athleticism when asked to move off his spot or extend a play beyond the first read. Eyes get blinders, release gets hurried, footwork goes awry when McKee is forced off-script. There’s some Brandon Weeden PTSD at scouting play here for me.
It’s very difficult to succeed in the NFL when everything has to go as planned and on time in the passing game. McKee just didn’t show me he is capable of pulling that off more than sporadically. I even saw it firsthand at Notre Dame, ironically enough a game where he authored the Cardinal’s most impressive win of the 2022 season.
I’d rather wait 2-3 rounds after McKee is projected and take a chance on a younger, more malleable prospect if I’m looking for a clipboard holder in 2023 who can perhaps climb to No. 2 QB in 2024 and beyond.
