Now that the wild-card round of the playoffs is over, it’s time once again for Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire, and Kyle Madson of Niners Wire, to come to the table with their own unique brand of analysis in “4-Down Territory.”
This week, the guys have some serious questions to answer:
- What should the Miami Dolphins do with Tua Tagovailoa?
- Should this be the end for Mike McCarthy in Dallas?
- Has Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni become more an liability than an asset?
- What was our Worst of the Week?
You can watch this week’s “4-Down Territory” right here:
You can also listen and subscribe to the “4-Down Territory” podcast on Spotify…
1. What do the Miami Dolphins do with Tua Tagovailoa?
Now that the Dolphins are out of the postseason following their 26-7 wild-card loss to the Chiefs, we’re left with the question we’ve been asking all along – is Tua Tagovailoa the right franchise quarterback for this team to trust?
Doug: I’m going to answer that question with a question. I’m going to name four quarterbacks who operate in similar systems: Tua, Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love. Where would you put Tua right now on that list? Consider also that those other three quarterbacks have done more to elevate their offenses in less time.
It’s also interesting that we’re discussing Tua at the same time we’re seeing Jared Goff hit a level we never thought he could in a Lions offense that is perfectly set for his attributes. Goff was thought to be an average-at-best quarterback who maxed out in an ideal offense under Sean McVay, and as it turned out, there was another gear. But those things don’t happen as often as we’d like, and you can’t bet on it. I don’t think anybody would say that Mike McDaniel isn’t a brilliant offensive play-caller, so with Tua, we’re left with what he does in McDaniels’ offense. And I look at the situations I want to see from great quarterbacks. On third down this season, Tua has seven regular-season interceptions, tied with Josh Allen for the league lead. On passes of 20 or more air yards, which McDaniel’s offense is designed to create more than any other NFL offense, Tua also has seven picks – only Allen and Jalen Hurts have more. Tua was pressured on just 24.9% of his dropbacks because that offense is designed to get the ball out quickly, but when pressured this season, Tua had two touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 52.8.
It’s not that I think Tua is somehow irredeemable, but we’re dealing with a situation where it very much looks like he’s maxed out in this offense, and you can’t be in that kind of purgatory at the game’s most important position. In the end, I think that the Dolphins will wait to give Tua any kind of contract extension, probably move along, and I’m not sure how they can responsibly do anything else. They’ve got him for $23.1 million on his fifth-year option.
Kyle: I’m not sure how a team can comfortably give Tua a deal at or near the top of the market. That’s not necessarily a knock, it’s just abundantly clear his individual impact on the team is relatively limited. Having him under center shrinks the margin for error on both sides of the ball. That means investment in other key positions is necessary, and the ability to do that gets handcuffed if the QB is eating more than 15 percent of the salary cap.
If I’m the Dolphins I’m doing my homework on QBs in this year’s draft and adding a young player or two at the position no matter what. Then I’m seeing if Tua will agree to a deal in the $30 million AAV range this offseason. If he’s not amenable to such a deal, they should let him play out his fifth year option and re-evaluate next year. Put that original offer out there, then let him hit the open market if he thinks he can get more. If Miami is smart they can build out a successful roster around a less expensive QB. It’s somewhat risky, but so is dumping so much money into a QB who doesn’t individually elevate the offense.
2. Should Jerry Jones fire Mike McCarthy, and who's the replacement?
- Will Jerry Jones fire Mike McCarthy? Should he fire Mike McCarthy, and if so, who should replace him?
Doug: This goes beyond the question of whether Jerry Jones should replace Mike McCarthy or not, though were it me, I would pull the trigger on that. This goes to Jones’ hiring cycle through his time as the Cowboys’ owner.
For the most part, he’s wanted head coaches who knew the word “Yes” above all, and let him deal with personnel and everything else. But on two occasions, he deferred to head coaches who were going to run personnel and do things their way. That was Jimmy Johnson in 1989, when Jerry had just bought the team, fired Tom Landry, and had to rebuild the NFL’s worst roster. That blew apart in 1994 when Jerry was tired of JImmy getting credit for all the work Jimmy actually did. Then, it was 10 years of Barry Switzer, Chan Gailey, and Dave Campo before Jerry wanted to be great again, and hired Bill Parcells to that end. That lasted four years, and then, it was Wade Phillips, and a decade of Jason Garrett (WHY), and finally, McCarthy.
I would not elevate McCarthy as a head coach over those names, so Jerry might be in line for another shot at greatness at the expense of institutional control. I tend to think that if Jerry can get a Bill Belichick or a Jim Harbaugh or even a Pete Carroll at this point in time, he’d probably do it, and deal with what he doesn’t like in the short term.
By the way, Jimmy going off on the current Cowboys from the FOX Sports studio soon after Jerry finally put him in the Ring of Honor? That had to be a bit jarring for the old boy.
Kyle: It’s time for Jerry Jones to launch the McCarthy era into the sun. Winning 12 games in the regular season is a great starting point, but Dallas is well beyond regular season success marking a successful year. This is a team that now has fewer playoff wins than the Texans since 2002. This latest blunder against Green Bay is just further evidence that McCarthy teams have a ceiling that sits below the Super Bowl.
I know Doug is going to break down some of the defensive problems later, but offensively, the Cowboys’ performance was inexcusable. They racked up points and first downs late in the game, but falling behind 27-0 is just something that can’t happen against a defense that had been struggling as bad as Green Bay’s was entering the playoffs. McCarthy’s teams are never ready for these moments, and they fall woefully short in every high-pressure spot. Even their first touchdown came after a penalty bailed McCarthy out of some truly abysmal clock management that nearly caused them to bleed off the whole clock without taking a shot to the end zone. It was ugly on the biggest stage for the third time in three years.
McCarthy’s gotta go, and a proven culter-setter/winner has to be the answer. Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick, Jim Harbaugh – one of that group needs to be the next coach in Dallas.
3. Is Nick Sirianni more of a liability than an asset?
We’re shooting this before Monday night’s Eagles-Buccaneers playoff game. If the Eagles get blown out (which is entirely possible), should owner Jeff Lurie move on from head coach Nick Sirianni? And even if the Eagles win, how much faith do you have in their ability to get to another Super Bowl?
(NOTE: The Eagles REALLY didn’t win).
Doug: Would Lurie fire Sirianni? Quicker than Eagles fans threw snowballs at Santa Claus in 1968. Lurie already fired Andy Reid, and Lurie already fired Doug Pederson. There are serious expectations here. And as far as their ability to make a deep playoff run, probably not unless they lock Matt Patricia in a box. Sirianni lost offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to the Colts and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to the Cardinals last offseason, and the brain-drain has been obvious. Especially on defense, where new DC Sean Desai got two-thirds into the season before he was whacked by Sirianni in favor of Patricia, and the defense has been worse since Patricia took over. Go figure. The offense under Brian Johnson has been disorganized all season, and A.J. Brown is out for this game against a very active Buccaneers defense.
Sirianni can be tough to work for and with – he’s pretty tense most of the time, and that has to be especially true after his team started the season 10-1, and then lost five of their next six games. There are probably already rumbles in the building, and if that happens, doesn’t it make the 2024 head coach cycle even more interesting?
Kyle: I fully understand the history here, but Lurie should ignore his own history and at least give Sirianni an opportunity to bounce back. The Eagles lost a Super Bowl, lost coordinators on both sides of the ball, then started 10-1. That’s super impressive! Obviously the goals in Philadelphia are much higher than 11-6 and a wild card spot, but I’d not want to set the precedent that a coach has to make the Super Bowl every year once he gets there once.
Philadelphia had some hiccups this year for sure, and perhaps Sirianni just isn’t a great head coach. That’s still unproven. But there’s certainly reason to give him another year and see who the real Sirianni is. Best case is another Super Bowl run. Worst case, they let him go mid-season next year. The reward at this point outweighs the risk.
4. What was your Worst of the Week for the wild-card round?
Finally, what’s your Worst of the Week?
Doug: I could get into referee Craig Wrolstad’s performance in the Lions-Rams game, which was abysmal from start to finish, but I won’t.
This week, I have raspberries for two usually great defensive coaches who failed to adjust in the wild-card round, and it cost their teams their seasons. Let’s start with Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who openly said in the days before Cleveland’s wild-card game against the Texans that he wasn’t going to switch anything up against C.J. Stroud. That was a problem because the Browns came into the postseason with the NFL’s highest rate of single-high coverage, and Stroud had ripped single-high to shreds all season long. Well, in Houston’s 45-14 beatdown of the Browns, Stroud faced single-high coverage on 16 of his 21 passing attempts in the game, and at no time did Stroud have to deal with any kind of wrinkle pre-snap to post-snap to muddy the picture and delay his reads and throws. Stroud responded about as you’d expect him to – by dicing up just about all of those coverages.
Second was Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn against Green Bay. While Quinn went away from his man coverage tendencies in Dallas’ loss to the Packers, he had six defensive backs on the field for about two-thirds of Dallas’ defensive snaps, which set things up nicely for running back Aaron Jones, who had been among the NFL’s best runners through the last month of the season, and Jones responded by running 21 times for 118 yards and three touchdowns. You hire coaches because you expect them to tailor their plans to every opponent, especially in the postseason. Neither Schwartz nor Quinn seemed to have any answers there.
Kyle: Two things here.
First, the Cowboys tied the NFL postseason record with 37 first downs. They became the first team in NFL history to have 37-plus first downs in a game and lose. Prior to Sunday teams were 8-0 when getting 37 or more first downs. Now they’re 8-1. That is perfectly McCarthy.
Second is anyone (your boy included) who tried talking themselves into Joe Flacco winning a Super Bowl in 2024. His story was super fun to end the year. Especially given how dreadful their QB situation was for most of the year. That it was Joe Flacco coming off the street to stabilize that position with a gunslinger series of performances to close the year was awesome. But we also have about a half decade sample size of Flacco just not being very effective anymore. He ran into a good defensive coach in DeMeco Ryans and it was a wrap from there. We (or at least I) got caught up in a fun story and let the desire for that story to be a thing cloud the reality of the situation. And that reality is that Flacco is just not that good of a QB anymore and the idea he’d win three road playoff games and a Super Bowl was always far-fetched.
