With 15 weeks of actual football in the books for the 2023 NFL season, it’s time once again for Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire, and Kyle Madson of Niners Wire, to come to the table with their own unique brand of analysis in “4-Down Territory.”
This week, the guys have some serious questions to answer:
- We have three weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season. Which team are you all-in on now that you did not expect to be at the season’s halfway point?
- Conversely, which team were you believing in at the halfway point, and you’re now saying to yourself, “I can no longer take them seriously?”
- Who’s your most underrated player in the NFL right now?
- What’s your NFL’s Worst of the Week for Week 14?
You can watch this week’s “4-Down Territory” right here:
You can also listen and subscribe to the “4-Down Territory” podcast on Spotify…
…and on Apple Podcasts.
1. Which team are you taking seriously that you didn't at the season's halfway point?
We have three weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season. Which team are you all-in on now that you did not expect to be at the season’s halfway point?
Doug: The Cleveland Browns, because Kevin Stefanski is my Coach of the Year right now, and Jim Schwartz is my Assistant Coach of the Year. This team is now 9-5. They’re on their fourth quarterback of the season in Joe Flacco. A full 26% of their 2023 salary cap is now on injured reserve, that’s the highest rate in the NFL, and it’s not just Deshaun Watson. It’s Nick Chubb, who’s their best offensive player. It’s hit after hit on their offensive and defensive lines, and in the secondary. And they just don’t let it affect them.
Moreover, they are pulling wins out of their butts on the regular. Per Next Gen Stats, The Browns’ win probability was as low as 10.7% when they trailed 17-7 with 0:55 remaining in the 3rd quarter in their 20-17 victory over the Chicago Bears. The Browns have a league-high four wins in games where their win probability has dropped below 15% this season. Flacco actually threw three interceptions in that Bears game, but he recovered to make some insane throws, especially in the fourth quarter. This is a team with all the resilience in the world, and though there are many teams with more talent, I just don’t think you want any part of the Browns right now.
Kyle: The Buffalo Bills. The Bills lost three out of four games between Weeks 7 and 10, and they looked incapable of putting together a complete game offensively and defensively. Now they might just be a buzzsaw after they blew out the Cowboys in Week 15 and they’re sitting right on the edge of the playoff picture. The reason that Week 15 win was such a big deal though is that they dominated physically. They didn’t just rely on Josh Allen to run around and do stuff. They hit on defense and set a tone, then let James Cook do the work to the tune of 221 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.
With consecutive wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys, the Bills look like a legitimate contender again, and given their talent, it would not be insane if they made the postseason and went on a run. Health under center is key in the AFC right now and they have that. If they can continue to find ways to win without leaning all the way on Allen, they’re going to be a really hard team to beat in January (and maybe February?).
2. Which potential playoff team can you no longer take seriously?
Conversely, which team were you believing in at the halfway point, and you’re now saying to yourself, “I can no longer take them seriously?
(Note: We taped this right before the Seahawks-Eagles Monday Night Football game, so Kyle’s take on the Seahawks might be different now)
Doug: Get the Jacksonville Jaguars out of my face. This is no longer a serious team. In their 23-7 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night, per OptaSTATS, the Jaguars are the only NFL team in the last 30 years to have…
– multiple drives end on missed field goals
– multiple drives end on fumbles
– multiple drives end in the red zone on downs or at the end of the half
…all in the same game.
The play that perfectly encapsulated the Jags’ unserious nature came at the end of the first half against the Ravens. There were 11 seconds left in the first half. The Jaguars had the ball at the Baltimore five-yard line. And Trevor Lawrence threw a pass at the left sideline short of the end zone, which receiver Parker Washington caught. Ravens safety Marcus Williams made an amazing play to keep Washington in bounds, and Trevor Lawrence couldn’t get back to the line of scrimmage.
After the game, head coach Doug Pederson said “We’re going to stay aggressive. We’ve scored before in those situations. It was just a mistake, I think, by Trevor, obviously, knowing the situation and knowing how much time is left right there.”
I’m sorry, but the playoffs are right around the corner, there’s a lot to analyze, and I don’t have time for the Jaguars’ monkeyshines anymore. They were 8-3 before they blew three straight games, both their offense and defense have fallen apart, and again, this is not a serious team anymore.
Kyle: “Get the Jacksonville Jaguars out of my face” is so funny. And it’s the right answer. When the 49ers faced the Jags in Week 10 it was billed as a clash of two of the top teams in the NFL. San Francisco smoked them 34-3 and the Jags have never regained control of their season. They’re just not that good of a team and that was on full display Sunday night when they had no answers on either side for the Ravens (an actual good team).
For me I’ll put Seattle here. They were 5-3 in Week 9 and looked like they’d be a real threat to the 49ers in the NFC West, and a possibly dangerous NFC team. After a 5-3 start, they’re now 6-7 and out of the playoff picture, and third in the NFC West. This was supposed to be a really good team with a ton of offensive weapons, a budding star in Riq Woolen, and a good offensive line. Then they added Devon Witherspoon and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the draft and they were a sexy preseason pick to win their division.
Now they’re on the outside looking in at a playoff spot, they can’t stay healthy, and it’s unclear they have any answers beyond Pete Carroll chewing more gum and shouting about competing.
3. Who's the NFL's most underrated star?
Who’s your most underrated player in the NFL right now?
Doug: Baltimore Ravens defensive lineman Justin Madubuike. He’s the third player in NFL history (at least since 1982 when sacks became an official stat) to record at least half a sack in 11 straight games in a season – Chris Jones and Trey Hendrickson are the others. Against the Jaguars, he had a sack and six total pressures… from five different gaps. This season, only Aaron Donald (74) and Dexter Lawrence (59) have more total pressures among players listed as interior defensive linemen than Madubuike’s 57, and no such player has more sacks than Madubuike’s 13. The 2020 third-round pick out of Texas A&M will be a free agent in the new league year unless the Ravens either re-sign or tag him, and you can bet that he’ll be a priority for several teams in the league with a top-shelf new contract.
Kyle: I think that Bucs safety Antoine Winfield Jr. should probably be more famous than he is. Maybe I just run in the wrong circles where Winfield doesn’t get mentioned, but he has been awesome for a surging Bucs team. Pro Football Focus has him graded out as the sixth-best defender in football overall. His coverage grade is also the sixth-highest among defensive backs. He’s up to 15 pressures and three sacks while also earning PFF’s best pass rush grade among defensive backs.
Winfield has yet to allow a TD this year, he has two interceptions, seven pass breakups and quarterbacks have a paltry 51.2 passer rating when throwing his way. He can play high, he can play in the box, he can man up in coverage, he can rush the passer – there’s just not a lot of stuff Winfield isn’t elite at on a football field.
4. What's your Worst of the Week for Week 15?
