With six weeks of actual football in the books for the 2023 NFL season, it’s time for Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire, and Kyle Madson of Niners Wire, to come to the table with their own unique brand of analysis in “4-Down Territory.”
This week, the guys discuss these four downs:
- Which team is the NFL’s best now that there are no more undefeated teams?
- Will another NFL team ever go undefeated again, or are the 1972 Miami Dolphins safe for eternity?
- Who’s the league’s most underrated player?
- And of course, our Worst of the Week!
You can watch this week’s “4-Down Territory” right here:
You can also listen and subscribe to the “4-Down Territory” podcast on Spotify…
…and on Apple Podcasts.
1. Who's the NFL's best team right now?
Do we know who the NFL’s best team is right now? The formerly undefeated Eagles and 49ers both fell on Sunday. The Bills nearly threw away a game to the Giants. The Chiefs are playing great defense, but who knows what’s going on with their passing game? The Dolphins can’t be stopped on offense, but their defense is a problem. Is there an NFL team that stands apart right now, or is it one big grab bag?
Doug: I still think it’s the 49ers, but that’s almost entirely dependent on the status of Christian McCaffrey, who suffered rib and oblique injuries in San Francisco’s loss to the Browns. But if I told you that the Detroit Lions were the most frightening team in the NFL right now, how much disagreement would there be? The Lions are right behind the 49ers at second in overall DVOA after their 20-6 win over the Buccaneers. Outside of the egg they laid in Week 2 against the Seahawks, who are also a good team, Dan Campbell’s squad just keeps knocking it out of the park. They have one of the NFL’s best passing games, certainly one of the NFL’s best and most multiple run games, and absolutely one of the NFL’s best and most underrated defenses.
Kyle: It’s a grab bag for me, but if I have to pick one I kind of think it’s Philadelphia. That’s not to overreact to a 49ers loss where they were a 41-yard field goal away from winning, but after watching the Browns dominate in the trenches, it’s clear how big of an advantage the Eagles will have there in a head-to-head matchup. The Lions absolutely belong in the conversation though. Winning four consecutive games by 14-plus is super impressive! They’re top five in offensive and defensive DVOA through six weeks and, as a self-proclaimed ‘vibes guy,’ they have immaculate vibes. That will matter when adversity hits and the stakes get high.
So, if we’re looking just at this season, it’s hard to say anyone is playing better than the Lions right now. However, we have a larger data set than just this season to work with, and that data set tells us the 49ers and Eagles are both firmly in the mix as the best team in the NFL. The Chiefs have to be up there as well considering who their quarterback is and how well their defense is playing. There are a ton of good teams through six weeks, but certainly none have separated themselves as the favorite.
2. Will any NFL team ever go undefeated again?
Speaking of the formerly undefeated Eagles and 49ers, we of course had the surviving members of the 1972 Dolphins popping champagne as they always do, because there are no unbeaten teams left in the NFL for the 2023 season. Will it be impossible at this point for any team to go from Week 1 through the Super Bowl without losing a game?
Doug: It’s not going to happen. With a 17-game regular season, the best you could hope for is a 20-game season with a divisional round game, a conference championship game, and a Super Bowl. Pro football is now more a game of attrition than ever before, and even if the head coach of an undefeated team down the stretch kept all his stars in to preserve that mark, what happens if any one of those stars goes down? Now, you’re in a mess. I always thought that the 2007 Patriots would have closed it out had linebacker Rosevelt Colvin not gotten injured in Week 13 against the Ravens. That was a completely different defense without Colvin, and while most people probably don’t remember his value to the team, it was evident at the time. So… one glue guy goes out, and all of a sudden, you’re treading water when you were blowing your opponents away. That’s all it takes. The odds are just about impossible.
Kyle: I totally agree. Teams are too smart now and the distance between the best and worst teams is closing so quickly. Perhaps someday if a team with a loaded roster like the 49ers falls backwards into a QB like Patrick Mahomes on a rookie deal, but that’s a crazy long shot. A team could also have incredible injury luck while also facing a schedule where their opponents are all far more injured than they are. Again – another miracle.
It just doesn’t feel like we’ll ever see a team as far ahead of the field as the 2007 Patriots, and even they couldn’t finish the undefeated season. Teams are just too good at problem solving now and the list of truly abominable teams this year is extremely short. Even the bad teams are all a handful of plays away from being in the playoff mix. A 20-0 finish feels impossible given how competitive the NFL has become.
3. Who's your Secret Superstar through Week 6?
Who is your Secret Superstar through Week 6 – the NFL’s most underrated player worthy of much more attention than he’s getting?
Doug: Jets edge-rusher Bryce Huff. One thing you look for in great teams or great units – and the Jets’ defense is legitimately great – is the number of unheralded guys who pop up out of nowhere and just start dominating. Few players in the NFL have done that at Huff’s level this season. This is an undrafted free agent out of Memphis who had a few nice moments in his first three NFL seasons, but who expected this? Huff has been an absolute edge monster in Robert Saleh’s defense, with three sacks and 34 total pressures in just 114 pass-rushing snaps. The only edge-rushers with more pressures this season are Maxx Crosby with 38 in 221 pass-rush snaps, and Aidan Hutchinson with 36 in 249.
Huff plays with great speed, serious anger to quote Jules Winnfield in Pulp Fiction, and all the technique you could want. He’s a major reason the Jets are able to sun in as many as seven different pass rushers along their fronts – remember, this was the Eagles’ recipe for defensive success last season – and that’s a credit to both Huff and a set of schemes that optimize every skill set to its highest potential.
Kyle: Colts center Ryan Kelly has been pretty average in his career and is now quietly one of the best offensive linemen in the league this year. Through four games he’s allowed zero sacks and one pressure according to Pro Football Focus. That type of play from a center is so vital for a young quarterback since pressure up the middle is every QB’s kryptonite. Anthony Richardson is likely out for this season with a shoulder injury, but his development will only be accelerated if Kelly continues playing in the future the way he has played this year. He should be an All-Pro in 2023.
Also… are we talking enough about Stefon Diggs? This isn’t to say he’s not considered one of the best WRs in the league. He is and it’s pretty unanimous. However, he quietly has five 100-yard games in the Bills’ first six and Buffalo hasn’t been particularly sterling in the passing game. He’s No. 2 in the NFL in catches, No. 3 in yards and tied for No. 2 in touchdown catches. He deserves more flowers than whatever he’s getting.
4. What was your Worst of the Week?
What was your Worst of the Week?
Doug: John Hussey leading the charge in a truly horrible week for officiating. In the Browns’ 19-17 surprise win over the 49ers, Hussey was so far past his skis, I don’t even know where to begin. Maybe we start with the fact that he called a face mask penalty on Za’Darius Smith when it was Christian McCaffrey grabbing Smith’s face mask. Hussey’s crew has a couple of those. One took about three minutes for everybody to figure it out. On the other one, Hussey walked it off, changed it, and had to go back on the mic and apologize for the confusion. There was the spot he got wrong that the Browns had to challenge. There was the intentional grounding call on Browns quarterback PJ Walker that was actually a fumble.
But wait – there’s more! The killer was the unnecessary roughness call on safety Tashaun Gipson with 2:45 left in the game. That came on a Browns third-and-10 from the Cleveland 26-yard line, and the penalty (which really wasn’t) put the ball on the Cleveland 41-yard line with a fresh set of downs. Maybe the Browns kick the game-winning field goal regardless, and maybe 49ers kicker Jake Moody should learn to make his own field goals.
I’m sure Hussey will be downgraded for this game, and I’m also pretty sure that Hussey will wind up in the playoffs regardless.
Kyle: I’ll stick with the 49ers here. Brock Purdy MVP takes are my worst of the week. This is on me. I wrote at Niners Wire that Purdy should be the MVP frontrunner, and that take aged like warm milk this week. Purdy was erratic with his accuracy and in general looked completely befuddled by the Browns’ defense. He had a real chance to elevate the 49ers’ offense with Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel out, and he didn’t.
None of this is to say that Purdy’s undefeated start was a fluke. He is still a very good player, but he’s not currently in the echelon of player that winds up taking home the MVP award. Perhaps he gets there someday. He’s good enough to help this version of the 49ers now, and if they’re healthy come playoff time, they’ll be really tough to beat. Purdy just isn’t on track to win the MVP this year and that take was a touch premature.
