Every week in “4-Down Territory,” Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling of Bucs Wire and Draft Wire go over the things you need to know about, and the things you need to watch, in the NFL right now. With Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season in the books, there was a lot to cover!
This week, Doug and Luke discuss:
- Whether there’s any question that the Eagles are the NFL’s best team;
- If there are reasons to worry about the Jaguars after that loss to the Eagles;
- Why the Buccaneers are going south on both sides of the ball; and…
- if John Harbaugh made the right fourth-down call in the Ravens’ loss to the Bills.
You can watch this week’s “4-Down Territory” right here:
Why the Eagles rule the roost.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the NFL’s lone undefeated team after they overcame a 14-0 deficit to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, 29-21, at Lincoln Financial Field. Atypically for a team that came out throwing earlier in the season, the Eagles responded to the deficit by running the ball over and over against a Jacksonville defense that had been the NFL’s best against the run. In their first three games, the Jags allowed 165 rushing yards, a 3.1 yards per carry average, and no touchdowns on 53 carries. Against the Eagles, Jacksonville gave up 210 yards, a 4.2 yards per carry average, and four touchdowns on FIFTY carries. It’s clear that the Eagles can win any way they want. Are they unquestionably the best team in the NFL?
Doug: This was absolutely a statement game for the Eagles. It’s one thing to overcome a two-touchdown deficit against a really good opponent. It’s quite another to come out and play bully-ball against a defense that had been the bully. The Eagles completely flipped the script due to the conditions of the game, and didn’t hesitate at all to succeed that way. When you can all your shots like that? Yes, you are the best team in football. The Eagles also did this with two of their offensive linemen (left tackle Jordan Mailata with a shoulder injury, and right guard Isaac Seumalo to an ankle injury) out during the game. We’re not even talking about a defense that shut the Jags down. We could do the entire show about how impressive the Eagles’ win was, and for how many reasons, but yeah – I’ll just leave it there. The road to anything this season goes through the Linc, and that’s the way it is.
Luke: You are what your record says you are, right? The Eagles are the best team in the league, and it’s because they can win however they want. They can ground-and-pound on offense, or they can make big plays through the air. They can stuff the run, get after the quarterback, and create takeaways. Hurts doesn’t get enough credit for his abilities as a passer, and his versatility is just so dangerous. This is the most complete, balanced team in the league right now, and their record reflects that.
The Jaguars have nothing to worry about.
With the Jaguars, are we chalking this up to getting beaten by a better team, or did this loss reveal cracks in the armor? Because we were both talking about this game last week as a proverbial Clash of the Titans, and in the end, it was anything but.
Doug: I think the Jaguars are a very good team on the rise, but they got poleaxed by a number of things. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t have a history of playing in the rain. And he’s not going to fumble four times in a game very often. The Eagles’ run schemes were set up specifically and perfectly to fool Jacksonville’s defense into reacting as opposed to attacking. They won’t face many other offenses at that level. The Eagles also overhauled their defense this offseason, and that really showed up in this game – Lawrence was seeing things he didn’t expect and wasn’t ready for. The James Bradberry interception came on a play where Lawrence thought Marvin Jones would carry Bradberry to the end zone in Philly’s Cover-3, but Bradberry adjusted perfectly to jump the throw to Christian Kirk. Things like that. It’s not so much that the Jaguars are horribly flawed – it’s more that the Eagles are just so on point right now, it’s going to be tough for anybody to beat them. The Jaguars will be fine.
Luke: The best thing for the Jags right now is that they have Doug Pederson there to captain the ship, instead of that other guy. They have a leader who knows how to win, and how to respond to in-season adversity, and that’s invaluable. This team is still plenty talented on both sides of the ball, and young enough to still be on the upswing. This was a teaching moment for them, and lucky for them, they’ve got the right teacher for the job this time.
Why are the Buccaneers headed south?
Another team with a great defense that got it taken to them on Sunday was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They had allowed 27 total points in their first three games, but they allowed 28 points to the Chiefs in the first half of Sunday Night Football. Was this just a case of Patrick Mahomes going thermonuclear, or are there concerns about the Bucs beyond that?
Doug: I think it’s more about the fact that the Bucs ran into a buzzsaw in a version of Mahomes that was looking for a bit of revenge regarding a certain Super Bowl a couple of seasons ago. Also, this Chiefs offense is cooking with gas in ways it simply weren’t last year, especially in the run game, and with creating explosive plays out of different personnel packages. My concerns about the Buccaneers have far more to do with their offense. This game was a case of the defense simply being unable to hold up for the offense any more, and given the injuries – especially to the offensive line and receiver corps – and Tom Brady’s obvious and repeated frustration with the ways things are going, I’d be inclined to call it a “Burn the tape” game for the defense, and focus on how offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich can get things back on track on the other side of the ball.
Luke: It’s too early for the panic button in Tampa Bay, but there were a couple things I saw Sunday night that are definitely big concerns for Bucs fans. First off, that’s the second home game in a row where they’ve come out completely flat on both sides of the ball. The offensive scripts look boring and predictable, and the defense looks completely lost and overmatched in the early going. Secondly, while Mahomes made his share of highlight-reel plays Sunday night, the biggest problem was that the Bucs couldn’t stop the run, like at all. That’s been their calling card throughout the Todd Bowles era, and that was the biggest reason they lost Sunday night. The offense is finally getting its act together, but the defense has some things to figure out.
Did John Harbaugh make the right call?
Speaking of teams that have had trouble holding leads… for the second time this season, the Baltimore Ravens lost a game in which they had a lead of at least 17 points. They had that against the Bills on Sunday, and they had a 21-point lead against the Dolphins in Week 2. This speaks to some obvious defensive issues, but turning our attention to the fourth-and-goal play from the Buffalo two-yard line with 4:15 left in the game and the score tied 20-20 – did you agree with the Ravens’ decision to go for it and eschew the field goal?
Lamar Jackson threw an interception to safety Jordan Poyer on the play, and the Bills never gave the ball back on their subsequent 12-play, 77-yard drive that ended with Tyler Bass’ game-winner as time expired. Should John Harbaugh have gone for the points?
Doug: Harbaugh said after the game that he was trying to go for the touchdown because he wanted to force the Bills into a four-down offense. Beyond the fact that the Bills are always a four-down offense, I can see the logic. I can also see that Poyer made a play on the ball that maybe two or three defensive backs in the NFL would make. When Jackson threw the ball to receiver Devin Duvernay in the right corner of the end zone, Poyer was all the way over by the goalpost because he was spying Jackson, and he made an unbelievable play for the interception. Poyer is the NFL’s best coverage safety – sometimes, you just have to tip your cap and move on. I think that if the Bills have any other safety there, the play probably works, and we’re not talking about this at all.
Plus, Harbaugh was betting on a quarterback who had been the NFL’s best player coming into that game. When it comes to fourth-down strategy, I think we need to be careful to avoid confusing process and outcome. The play call wasn’t bad. The outcome was, and there are about six different reasons for that.
Luke: I hated the call, Doug. Giving up the opportunity to take an easy lead because of what might happen on the following drive just doesn’t make sense. Space is hard to find when you’re in goal-to go situations, and Harbaugh still decided the risk of not having any lead at all was worth making Jackson try to find enough room in a condensed area to make a play on fourth down. I understand the opposing logic, I just flat out disagree with it. You’d need a stop from your defense either way, and I’d much rather send them out there with any lead at all instead of being greedy. It was a bad decision, and it came back to bite them in a bad way.
