With five weeks of actual football in the books for the 2023 NFL season, it’s time for Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire, and Kyle Madson of Niners Wire, to come to the table with their own unique brand of analysis in “4-Down Territory.”
This week, the guys discuss these four downs:
- Is 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy a cog in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, or a scheme-transcendent superstar?
- Who might be the first coach fired in the 2023 season?
- Should the NFL ban the Philadelphia Eagles’ “Brotherly Shove?”
- What was the Worst of Week 5?
You can watch this week’s episode of “4-Down Territory” right here:
You can also listen and subscribe to the “4-Down Territory” podcast on Spotify…
…and on Apple Podcasts.
1. Brock Purdy: Cog, or superstar?
Brock Purdy, Superstar? On Sunday night against a very good Dallas Cowboys defense, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy completed 17 of 24 passes for 252 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 144.4. Great stuff, and it’s clear that when he’s on, Purdy is the ideal Kyle Shanahan quarterback in that he stays within the system, and bends it to his will on the field.
For the season, Purdy has completed 98 of 136 passes for nine touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 123.8, which is the NFL’s best through five weeks. Are we ready to say that Purdy is more than a system quarterback in the pejorative sense? Is he one of those guys who could light it up in any offense?
Doug: I’m still on the fence. Purdy’s tape against the Cowboys was outstanding – he had a few legitimately big-time throws that any quarterback would be proud of, and it’s clear that Shanahan trusts him implicitly to handle his amazing offense with care. I love what I’m seeing of late. But I also remember the Brock Purdy who was spraying the ball all over the place against the Los Angeles Rams and the New York Giants in Weeks 2 and 3, and while I’m not saying that’s who he is, there were times when Purdy didn’t look like he belonged on the field. I’m fascinated by his talent, and I think he has the potential to be that guy in time, but before that happens, he’ll need to rein in the rogue tendencies a bit and stay within himself.
I’m not slamming him because he’s in a system that is primed for his success. Every quarterback should have that. This is more about the randomness I’m still seeing – that’s what makes me reluctant to put him in the Pantheon.
Oh, by the way – as far as the MVP conversation goes, Purdy isn’t the most valuable player in his own backfield. That would be Christian McCaffrey.
Kyle: A 72.1 percent completion rate, including 87.1 percent on intermediate throws (10-19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) and a 58.3 percent completion rate on deep throws (20-plus yards beyond the LOS) is pretty impressive for a guy who’s “spraying the ball all over the place!”
No, but seriously. There’s this line in internet discourse where a player is either trash or the GOAT. The fact is perhaps 95 percent of players land somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. Purdy is not a top-five signal caller even if his numbers this season indicate that he is. He wouldn’t be putting up this kind of production for the Steelers. However, his play this year has elevated him, for me, into that big mix of QBs that fall below the “elite” tier, but above the “bad” tier. He’s decisive, he knows the 49ers’ offense and he knows how to move it most effectively – that’s ultimately what matters for San Francisco’s purposes. I’m not putting Purdy in the top five in a vacuum, and at this point I’m not ready to say he’s top 10. He is playing well enough to help the 49ers win the Super Bowl though.
2. First coach fired?
There are a lot of really bad teams in the NFL, and eventually, some head coaches are going to find themselves on the wrong side of the job market. Were you to estimate that one head coach might lose his job in-season, who might it be?
Doug: Let’s say you’re Jerry Jones. You hired a head coach in Mike McCarthy who is responsible for two things: Calling the offense now that Kellen Moore is gone, and taking charge of situational football. Well, the offense has been really bad this season, especially in the red zone, and the situational football has always been horrible under McCarthy. After the 42-10 thrashing at the hands of the 49ers, McCarthy said all the usual stuff about getting in the room and watching the tape and getting back to fundamentals, but when was the last time this guy had a credible answer for anything that didn’t involve Aaron Rodgers playing like the best quarterback we’ve ever seen?
Now, the 3-2 Cowboys have the Chargers, Rams, and Eagles on their upcoming schedule. They’d better at least come out of that at least 2-1. And they’d better look better on offense than the Chargers do, because Kellen Moore is calling THAT offense now. Because Jerry has Dan Quinn as his defensive coordinator, Quinn will likely be a head coach somewhere in 2024, and McCarthy just isn’t the guy.
Not that I’m thrilled about Brian Schottenheimer running the offense in McCarthy’s hypothetical absence, but Schotty would at least throw a few motion concepts at a defense in the red zone. Create some spacing for his receivers. Something, anything.
Kyle: Yeah, I’m not sure how the Cowboys can justify rolling out there with Mike McCarthy when their stated goal is to be on par with the 49ers and Eagles. They’ve fallen short in the postseason the last two years and their loaded roster isn’t being maximized. A couple weeks ago it might’ve been Brandon Staley or Matt Eberflus in this spot instead, but they’ve both built up some goodwill with a couple victories. The Broncos aren’t canning Sean Payton during Year 1 and there’s no other team where it’s clear the coach is the problem.
That leaves McCarthy as the next man up. He took over playcalling duties this year and somehow things are only worse for them on that side of the ball. QB Dak Prescott isn’t progressing and they’re leaving yards on the field by confining their offense to a six-yard box between the numbers. Given how quickly Philly is leaving Dallas in the dust in the NFC East, Jones may need to make a move sooner than later to avoid falling out of the playoff race entirely.
3. Should the "Brotherly Shove" be banned?
The Philadelphia Eagles have created nearly automatic success with the “Tush Push,” or “Brotherly Shove,” their rugby wedge thing where everybody shoves quarterback Jalen Hurts forward for a short-yardage win. Now, the NFL is reportedly talking about outlawing it because the league is studying injury data, and the league is concerned. Should the NFL and the NFLPA ban the Tush Push when the Competition Committee meets next March?
Doug: No, you wimps. The best way to stop a play you don’t like is to… well, stop it. Figure it out. Let’s start with the injury data, which is inconclusive at best. The Giants had two guys get banged up when they tried a misbegotten tush push in Week 4, but based on that offense this season, I”m not even sure they repped it before they did it. And the NFL never considers injury data until it’s forced to. So, I’m guessing this is a case where a couple of butt-hurt team owners are tired of getting embarrassed by a nearly fool-proof concept, unless you’re running it like fools. .
This reminds me a lot of the Wildcat when the Dolphins killed the Patriots with it in 2008. Miami’s version was a multi-layered, nuanced thing, because quarterbacks coach David Lee had run it with Felix Jones and Darren McFadden at Arkansas the year before as the team’s offensive coordinator. And they had great success with it for about half a season before the NFL figured out how to deal with it. But in the interim, you had a lot of teams calling direct snaps to their running backs with no eye candy for three-yard losses and then insisting that the Wildcat was stupid.
The Eagles figured out a thing that works perfectly for their personnel. They should not be penalized for it. Plus, Jack Del Rio doesn’t like it, and that’s reason enough for me to be in favor of it.
Kyle: Let’s start here. The injury data thing is at best a stretch of the truth, and at worst an outright lie. If the NFL actually took player safety into account the league would look substantially different. That would appear, based on the league’s history, to be an excuse for some teams who want to try and take away one of the best teams’ best weapons.
That said, the answer is a firm ‘no.’ The Eagles shouldn’t be punished for having an awesome offensive line, and that’s what’s really at play with the “tush push.” They get so much movement up front thanks to their dominant offensive line that Hurts would probably get his yard or two without the assistance of his teammates pushing him ahead.
Nobody has any issue with offensive linemen slamming into a pile to move it forward after a running back is stacked up. There’s no cry for players who hold the ball out for an extra yard as they step out of bounds (which is a way worse way to gain a yard than the “tush push,” FYI). If it was a league-wide offensive movement that was affecting watchability or hurting the integrity of the sport, that would be one thing. But this is one team, with great personnel, executing a play to perfection. Figure out how to stop it.
4. What was your Worst of the Week?
Speaking of all those bad teams, what’s your Worst of the Week for Week 5?
Doug: Sean Payton losing the inaugural Nathaniel Hackett Bowl.
Before Sunday’s game between the New York Jets and the Denver Broncos even got started, it was abundantly clear that the Jets wanted this one for offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, the former embattled Broncos head coach who caught some strays from current Broncos head coach Sean Payton back in July.
In an interview with USA Today’s Jarrett Bell, Payton said that Hackett’s coaching job with the Broncos “might have been one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL. That’s how bad it was.”
Payton later apologized for the statement, but the tone was set. And though neither Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson nor Jets quarterback Zach Wilson performed well in this game, the Jets did just enough to pull out a 31-21 win, and the Broncos’ offense — supposedly re-engineered by Payton — looked horrible more often than not. Russell Wilson completed 20 of 31 passes for 196 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 103.7… but he also fumbled away any chance of winning near the end. For all his bold talk before the season, Payton got put in his place here.
Kyle: The New England Patriots. This is really a worst of the last two weeks, but what in the world happened? They’ve been outscored 72-3 the last two weeks and they look as rudderless as any team in the NFL. They’re bad on both sides of the ball and they’ve taken clear steps backward over the last two seasons.
It’s not like there’s an easy fix either. They’ve been mostly aimless since Tom Brady’s final year. Their rash of free agent signings haven’t panned out, there’s still a question mark around Mac Jones’ viability as a franchise quarterback, and the talent around him raises questions about whether there’s enough support for the QB.
If Bill Belichick wasn’t Bill Belichick, he’d be firmly in the spotlight for our earlier question about in-season coach firings. He’s still one of the best defensive minds in the sport and the best coach in the history of the league. That being said, there’ve been enough questionable (and outright poor) personnel decisions over the last four years that make it worth wondering if the Pats shouldn’t pull personnel control from Belichick if they’re not going to move on from him as a head coach.
