The Chargers will adjust to a new defensive game plan after losing Joey Bosa to a groin strain. The good news? They’ll do so against the Texans, the third-worst offense in the league per DVOA. Houston did turn last year’s Week 16 contest into a trap game for Los Angeles, though.
Here are four ways LA can avoid that outcome on Sunday.
Limit the rushing attack
I don’t think Chargers fans need to be reminded of how the run defense looked in Week 16 against the Texans last season. The Texans’ run game has improved since then with the addition of rookie Dameon Pierce, but so has LA’s run defense with the additions of Sebastian Joseph-Day, Austin Johnson, and Morgan Fox. Still, Joey Bosa was a large part of the success as a run defense to start this season, and you saw Jacksonville exploit Bosa’s backup Chris Rumph last week once Bosa went down. LA needs to find a way to keep Houston from replicating last year’s performance, especially with a Texans passing game that has struggled to get going thus far this season.
Make the wide receivers beat you
Speaking of the passing game, Houston’s wide receivers have been a non-factor this season. Brandin Cooks still leads the Texans in targets and receptions with 29 and 13, respectively, but running back Rex Burkhead and tight end Pharaoh Brown are tied for second and third. Cooks pulling in less than half of his targets is also something to monitor; it seems as though his timing with Davis Mills has just been off to start this season. All three passing touchdowns this season have gone to tight ends as well. Without a true slot weapon on Houston’s roster if Cooks is playing on the outside, LA would be wise to put Bryce Callahan and Derwin James on the tight end and force Mills to find his rhythm with Cooks or Nico Collins.
Rattle Davis Mills
Mills has been one of the easiest quarterbacks to scare out of the pocket since he entered the league last season, to the point where it’s actively holding him back from becoming a more proficient player. The second-year Mills is also fourth to last in CPOE at -8.3, meaning that his accuracy has really not developed since last season. The three QBs worse than him are Trey Lance (injured, played one game in a monsoon), Justin Fields (played one game in a monsoon), and Baker Mayfield. Houston’s offensive line has been solid but unremarkable through three games. If the Chargers can get home even without Bosa on the field, it could be another rough afternoon for Mills.
Prevent the turnaround
The Texans’ narrative coming into this game is that they need to get things turned around. They’re 0-2-1 when they have good reason to believe they should be 3-0. Their offense has gone limp in the fourth quarter and let down a defense creating turnovers in key moments. LA must ensure that Houston cannot have this dialogue in this game. Jump on them early, make Mills uncomfortable, and squash this team. Do not let them get back into it as they did in Week 1 against the Raiders. The Chargers’ defense needs to learn to finish just as Houston’s offense does, and this is one of their best opportunities to get used to closing out games.
