The Washington Commanders hit the road for Week 16 with a trip across the country to face the San Francisco 49ers. The team may not say it, but this is a must-win game for Washington.
After blowing opportunities the last two weeks to pick up at least one win over the New York Giants, the Commanders now find themselves barely holding onto the No. 7 and final NFC playoff spot with three games remaining. Washington may control its own destiny but faces a difficult path to the playoffs.
That difficult path begins with the 49ers, who are 10-4 and have won seven consecutive games. Despite injuries to their top two quarterbacks, the 49ers continue to win with seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy under center.
What can the Commanders do to pull off the upset on Christmas Eve?
Here are keys to a Washington victory over the 49ers.
Stop the run
Easier said than done. Stopping a Kyle Shanahan run game is one of the more difficult tasks in the NFL. That became even more difficult when the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey. Commanders head coach Ron Rivera drafted McCaffrey in Carolina and knows all too well how dangerous he is.
The 49ers rank No. 9 in run offense, while the Commanders rank in the top 10 in run defense. This is a critical matchup. In McCaffrey’s first five games with the 49ers, he was held under 40 yards rushing four times. However, in the last two games with Purdy making his first two starts, McCaffrey has rushed for 100 yards each game. In six of his eight games with the Niners, McCaffrey has had at least six targets in the passing game.
Slowing down the 49ers begins with McCaffrey.
Keep the pressure in Purdy's face
Washington defensive tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen are the best pair in the league. Allen will start in the Pro Bowl, while Payne is an alternate. The duo has combined for 17 sacks, and Allen and Payne are No. 2 and No. 3 in tackles for loss, respectively.
For the Commanders to win this game, they need to keep pressure in Purdy’s face. Force him into quick decisions, something he hasn’t faced yet in three appearances. Washington has the defensive line to give the 49ers problems.
Keep all three receivers involved
Washington has terrific skill players on offense. Pass protection and quarterback limitations have hampered the Commanders on offense. While Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz each do things well, one has strengths the other lacks.
Washington’s wide receivers [Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson & Curtis Samuel] are an elite trio. The Commanders will not be able to drop back and throw deep on the 49ers. They need a quick passing game and feature the perfect receivers to give San Francisco trouble. All three Washington receivers are great after the catch. Heinicke needs to be able to deliver the ball accurately and on time. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner needs to focus heavily on the quick passing game, as the Commanders will have trouble running the football on the top-ranked run defense.
Don't just abandon the run
The 49ers allow less than 75 yards rushing per game. Washington’s rushing offense has been a team strength over the last two months. The Commanders rank No. 11 in rushing offense. While Washington needs to throw the ball to win, it can’t completely abandon the run because the 49ers have been dominant against it. Brian Robinson Jr. has rushed for 290 yards in his last three games, and he rarely loses yardage. Robinson is the perfect back to have against a stout defense like the 49ers. It doesn’t mean it will work every time, but it keeps the threat of play-action alive.
