After a two-week swing across the pond, the PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota, for the 3M Open. Previously a Champions Tour event for 26 years, the tournament was added to the PGA Tour schedule in 2019. At a course where water comes into play on 15 holes, TPC Twin Cities always provides a dramatic week. While many of the world’s biggest names will be resting up before the FedEx Cup playoffs, Ryder Cup hopeful and two-time major champion, Justin Thomas, added his name to the field after missing the cut badly at the Open Championship.
Thomas currently sits on the outside looking in of the top 70. He will be joined by defending champion Tony Finau, who looks to right the ship after a disappointing missed cut at the Open. Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama, who are both starting to play some better golf, will both look to improve their position as well, while Ludvig Aberg and Sepp Straka hope another strong finish can cement their Ryder Cup spots. On one of the most-high variance courses on Tour, we can expect some fireworks this week.
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3M Open: Course Preview
TPC Twin Cities
While in the heart of Minnesota, TPC Twin Cities truly resembles more of a Florida course due to its water-intensive character. Last year, the Arnold Palmer designed ranked second on the PGA Tour in penalty strokes per round, which differentiates it from the other Bent-grass birdie-fests, such as Detroit Golf Club and TPC Deere Run, that we have grown accustomed to this summer. TPC Twin Cities played as one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour in 2019 and 2020, but in each of the last two years, it has gotten progressively more challenging. We’ve seen some more wind and firmer conditions really make this course play a lot more similar to a PGA National than one of the aforementioned scoring bonanzas.
In fact, TPC Twin Cities ranks well below average in percentage of strokes gained that have come with the flat-stick. On the other hand, it is one of the most off-the-tee and approach-biased courses on the PGA Tour. Don’t be fooled; TPC Twin Cities is a proper ball-striking course, and avoiding hazards off the tee is the name of the game. Despite bigger hitters such as Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, and Tony Finau finding success here, players cannot bomb away aimlessly here. Distance is certainly advantageous, but staying out of trouble remains the true key to success at TPC Twin Cities. Ultimately, I will primarily look to identify elite off-the-tee players who gain strokes via their accuracy, top-tier mid-to-long iron players, and those with a proven track record on water-heavy courses such as PGA National and TPC Sawgrass.
3M Open Key Stats
- Good Drive Percentage
- Long-Term Proximity 150 yards plus
- Birdies or Better Gained
3M Open: Outright Winner
Sungjae Im (+2200) (Bet $100 to collect $2,300) DraftKings has the best Sungjae Im odds
Sungjae Im possesses the perfect combination this week of elite course history and trending form while still coming in at a fair betting price, given this field's strength. Im is coming off a quiet 20th-place finish at the Open Championship, where he gained over two strokes on approach. His best ball-striking round came on Saturday by a healthy margin, where the conditions were more conducive to scoring. That’s the mindset that Sungjae will have to adopt this week, and considering he ranks top-10 in this field in both birdie or better percentage and par five scoring, he is certainly up for the challenge. A second and a 15th in two appearances at TPC Twin Cities is far from surprising, given Sungjae’s accuracy off the tee and success at other water-heavy Florida courses such as TPC Sawgrass and PGA National. The three-time PGA Tour winner was built for these strategic tests that require one to avoid landmines at all costs, and he has performed admirably not just at TPC Twin Cities but also many of the Florida courses that ask a similar question. Im is far too good of a player to sustain a winless streak for this long, and this is the type of event he has proven most deadly at.
As you can see, it is imperative that you compare the 3M Open odds at OddsChecker.
Sungjae Im is now best-priced at +2200 at DraftKings, and just +1400 at BetRivers, a stark $800 difference in returns. Make sure to pick the best sportsbook for your Sungjae Im pick with OddsChecker.
Adam Svensson (+8000) (Bet $100 to collect $8,100) Get the best Adam Svensson odds at FanDuel
I’ve long been a fan of Adam Svensson well before he broke through last Fall at the RSM Classic. Unfortunately, he hasn’t given us much to write about this calendar, but I firmly believe the Canadian is trending in the right direction. Svensson is coming off a 21st-place finish at the John Deere Classic, where he gained strokes in all four major categories. He improved in both ball-striking categories, and it was his first positive approach week in seven starts. Now he travels to a golf course in which he has hit the ball beautifully in the past, which should not come as a surprise given his accuracy off the tee. Svensson possesses all of the skill sets to succeed at TPC Twin Cities: accuracy off the tee, strong middle to long iron player, rock solid bunker play, Bent-grass putting, and birdie-making ability. With a ninth-place finish at PGA National and a 13th in his only appearance at TPC Sawgrass, Svensson has shown an affinity for water-intensive courses where the main objective is to avoid landmines off the tee. This is a fine opportunity to catch a talented player on the upswing who has already proven he can win at this level while he is still undervalued.
Once again, OddsChecker odds comparison tool comes to the fore, as there is a difference of $1000 in returns when you bet $100 on Adam Svensson at FanDuel, BetRivers, and Bet365 rather than DraftKings.
