Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the league, in order of projected 2023 win totals. Up next: the Broncos.
To put it bluntly, Year 1 of the Russell Wilson experience in Denver was a disaster.
But the Broncos had 85 million reasons as to why they needed to continue it—that’s how much the team would have been penalized against the salary cap had they chosen to move on from Wilson this offseason.
Now it’s on new coach Sean Payton to make it work with Wilson for a turnaround season in 2023, or at least help him play better to raise his trade value next offseason.
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Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY Sports (left, center); Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY Sports (right)
Denver invested in its offensive line in free agency, and in the backfield with the arrival of Samaje Perine to pair with Javonte Williams. The Broncos also added a new weapon for Wilson with the second-round draft selection of wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr., which created a logjam at the position with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler and Marquez Callaway also on the roster.
The Broncos also splurged on the defensive side with the addition of interior defensive lineman Zach Allen, who had a breakout season with Arizona in 2022. But the defense wasn’t the problem last year in Denver.
All eyes will be on the partnership between Payton and Wilson this season.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Trading for Payton to fix Wilson
For starters, the bigger gamble might be Payton taking a chance on the Broncos. The coach could have easily sat for another year after the jobs he likely desired (the Cowboys and Chargers) didn’t become available. Payton doesn’t have a Justin Herbert–like quarterback in Denver, and he took on a messy situation after the organization handed Wilson a lucrative contract extension (five years, $245 million) ahead of a dreadful season. Now it’s on Payton to fix the mess, but the Broncos are also gambling on the idea that the coach is refreshed from his year off—especially after trading a first-round pick to New Orleans for the right to hire him. This might be a forced partnership with a feel-out season before Payton completely rebuilds the roster the way he sees fit. And it wouldn’t be a surprise if he quickly pulls Wilson for backup Jarrett Stidham if the former starts 2023 as poorly as last season.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 5 to 10
The Broncos face the mighty Kansas City Chiefs twice in a three-week span: on the road in Week 6 and at home in Week 8. Before facing the Chiefs, the Broncos are at home vs. Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. They also have a home game versus the Packers, which is sandwiched between the two Chiefs games. Green Bay, Rodgers’s old home, could be a surprise team with starting quarterback Jordan Love and a veteran-filled defense led by cornerback Jaire Alexander. The Broncos also have a tough road battle with the Bills in Week 10, but that’s after a bye week.
Breakout player to watch: TE Greg Dulcich
George Walker IV/Tennessean.com/USA TODAY Network
Wilson had a rough first season in Denver, but he found some comfort with throwing in Dulcich’s direction. After being inactive the first five games of his rookie season, Dulcich quickly gained the quarterback’s trust as a polished route runner. Dulcich fell to the third round of the 2022 draft partly because he needed to improve as a blocker, but being a productive seam stretcher provided a role for him with the Broncos. Perhaps Payton can utilize Dulcich’s strengths in the passing game, similarly to what he did with Jimmy Graham in New Orleans for many years. That’s setting the bar high, but the UCLA product showed plenty of promise last year, with 33 receptions for 411 yards and two touchdowns.
Position of strength: Secondary
Cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons are two of the best players in the league at their respective positions, making the secondary the obvious choice for position of strength. Surtain entered the realm of elite cornerbacks in his second NFL season, and he might have played better than even the Jets’ Sauce Gardner. Simmons made his third second-team All-Pro after recording a career-high six interceptions in 2022. Safeties Kareem Jackson and P.J. Locke also provide depth to a talented secondary.
Position of weakness: Edge rusher
The Broncos have plenty of unproven players behind Randy Gregory, who had a rocky first season in Denver after playing in only six games due to injury. And with the team trading Bradley Chubb to Miami last year, they’ll need second-year player Nik Bonitto to make drastic improvements this season. Bonitto, a 2022 second-round pick, struggled against the run and contributed only 1.5 sacks during his rookie season. But the Broncos will need more than just Bonitto to step up with Gregory’s lengthy injury history. Wilson gets the bulk of the spotlight for bad deals in Denver, but Gregory’s five-year, $70 million might be just as bad. The team also recently added veteran Frank Clark, the former pass rusher for the Chiefs, to help in case Bonitto doesn’t improve and/or Gregory can’t stay healthy.
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X-factor: RT Mike McGlinchey
With the Broncos unable to move Wilson’s massive contract, the team went all in with giving him better protection via free agency, hoping that could lead to a bounce-back season from the nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback. Right tackle McGlinchey was the prize signing from the 49ers, the team with which he developed into a standout run blocker. McGlinchey, however, has struggled as a pass protector and will be counted on to improve in that area after the Broncos signed him to a lucrative five-year, $87.5 million contract. The team also signed guard Ben Powers on a four-year, $52 million deal.
Sleeper fantasy pick: RB Samaje Perine
Perine was a strong waiver wire addition during a three-week stretch last season as the Bengals’ lead back. Now in Denver, he could open the season in the same role if Williams isn’t at 100% coming off a knee injury. Perine and Williams could even split the workload once the latter is back. —Michael Fabiano, SI Fantasy
Best bet: Over/under: Russell Wilson over 3750.5 passing yards (+120)
Wilson threw for more than 4,000 yards as recently as 2020. At plus money, I am willing to bet Sean Payton can help Russ get back on track. There’s no shortage of weapons in Denver, and Wilson has been one of the best deep passers in the league. —Jennifer Piacenti, SI Betting
