Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the league, in order of projected 2023 win totals. Up next: the Patriots.
The Patriots will have an uphill battle competing in the rugged AFC East, but they’ll likely be in the mix with Bill Belichick still on the sidelines.
Nonetheless, for New England to be more than a pesky team in the way of the Dolphins, Bills and Jets, they’ll need quarterback Mac Jones to shake off a subpar 2022 season and get on the same page with his coaching staff.
Jones might also be missing a true No. 1 wideout, but he has a solid group of skill players with the arrivals of wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and tight end Mike Gesicki to go with tight end Hunter Henry and running back Rhamondre Stevenson.
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Eric Canha/USA TODAY Sports (left, center); Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (right)
On the defensive side, the Patriots are led by the ferocious pass-rushing duo of Matthew Judon and Josh Uche (who had a breakout 2022 season). Overall, the Patriots might have one of the better defenses in the league.
The biggest question marks, however, are coming from the offensive side, starting with Jones and his new offensive coordinator.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Hiring Bill O’Brien as OC
O’Brien took over as the Patriots’ offensive coordinator after Belichick’s failed experiment of having Matt Patricia and Joe Judge split offensive coaching duties in 2022. Not having one lead coaching voice led to a disappointing second season for Jones, who threw for 2,997 yards, 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 14 games. It’s now on O’Brien to get Jones back on track, or the Patriots might seriously consider moving on from their ’21 first-round pick. (Quarterback Bailey Zappe had two respectable starts during his rookie season.) After being fired as head coach of the Texans, O’Brien joined Alabama as the offensive coordinator, helping Bryce Young win the Heisman Trophy and develop into the No. 1 pick in April. O’Brien was also instrumental in the development of Deshaun Watson with the Texans. Belichick is known for his stubbornness, but he’s giving Jones a fighting chance with the hiring of O’Brien.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 1 to 4
There might not be a tougher start to the season than what the Patriots have to face during the first month, going against four potential Super Bowl contenders. New England’s season opener is at home against the Eagles, the defending NFC champions, followed by another home game vs. the surging Dolphins, who traded for cornerback Jalen Ramsey this offseason. The gantlet ends with back-to-back road games against Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, and Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. The Patriots will learn early where they stand after facing four of the best teams in the NFL.
Breakout player to watch: RB Rhamondre Stevenson
This pick might be risky—Belichick tends to favor backfield committees over one lead back—but Stevenson received 210 carries last season and did not disappoint, rushing for 1,040 yards, five touchdowns and averaging five yards per carry. Pro Football Focus was also a fan of Stevenson’s work in his second season, giving him an offensive grade of 81.3 and a run grade of 84.3. Stevenson is primed for a breakout third season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Belichick decides to incorporate James Robinson, Ty Montgomery and Pierre Strong Jr. (a 2022 fourth-round pick) more into the offense. Either way, it’s hard to ignore how productive Stevenson was last season as the lead back.
Position of strength: Secondary
The Patriots have plenty of depth in the secondary after the arrival of cornerback Christian Gonzalez, the No. 17 pick in this year’s draft. The 6'2", 201-pound Gonzalez has the length and athleticism to form into a No. 1 shutdown corner, and he’ll get time to develop playing next to Jonathan Jones, who re-signed with the team this offseason. Also, the safeties group features many playmakers with Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, Jalen Mills and Kyle Dugger—the last of whom might be on the verge of his first Pro Bowl season.
Position of weakness: Offensive tackle
It’s a critical season for Jones, but the team didn’t help him at the tackle spots, leaving him with bookend starters Trent Brown and Riley Reiff, two veterans who have struggled with consistency and availability in recent years. Brown, however, managed to stay on the field last season with 16 starts (he started only a combined 25 games the prior three seasons) and did a serviceable job with pass protection. At 34, Reiff’s best days are behind him, and he probably shouldn’t be the answer as the starting right tackle after a rocky 2022 season in Chicago.
X-factor: WR Tyquan Thornton
David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports
Thornton had a quiet rookie season (22 receptions, 247 yards and two touchdowns) after the Patriots surprisingly took him in the second round of the 2022 draft. But reporters on the ground in New England are already buzzing about the speedy Thornton (4.28 seconds in the 40-yard dash last combine) torching defenders during OTAs. If Thornton can do that come the regular season, the Patriots might have a versatile cast of receivers with him, Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne.
Sleeper fantasy pick: QB Mac Jones
Jones regressed badly last season, though he played without a true offensive coordinator. That won’t happen this season. New England also added Smith-Schuster and Gesicki in the offseason, so I can see Jones bouncing back in the stat sheets. —Michael Fabiano, SI Fantasy
Best bet: Rhamondre Stevenson will go over 1000.5 rushing yards
Stevenson logged 1,040 yards last year in tandem with Damien Harris, who has been replaced by Robinson this year. Stevenson is “the guy,” and you’re getting even money for this one, too. —Jennifer Piacenti, SI Betting
