Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the league, in order of projected 2023 win totals. Up next: the Falcons.
The Falcons play in a stadium named for a car company. It's fitting, because for the last five years, they’ve been stuck in neutral.
Atlanta hasn’t made the playoffs since 2017 and in the ensuing campaigns has won exactly seven games four times. The Falcons are still trying to find their way, with third-year coach Arthur Smith looking to take the next step in a winnable NFC South.
The big question mark is quarterback Desmond Ridder. While the offensive line is respectable and the weapons are intriguing, Ridder is the great unknown. A third-round pick last year out of Cincinnati, the second-year signal-caller started only four games as a rookie, throwing for 708 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions.
Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports (left); Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports (center, right)
If Ridder can play, Atlanta can soar. If he can’t, the onus will fall on a remade defense. General manager Terry Fontenot threw significant resources at the unit this winter, led by a $64 million deal for free-agent safety Jessie Bates III. The Falcons also signed veterans David Onyemata and Calais Campbell for the front four, while signing edge rusher Bud Dupree for $3 million this season.
Few teams have a wider range of outcomes in 2023 than Atlanta.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Not adding another proven wideout
If you’re going to bet big on a second-year quarterback, it’s wise to give him all possible help.
Instead, Fontenot stood pat outside of a small signing of Mack Hollins, who gives the Falcons a veteran depth piece on the perimeter. As things stand, only Drake London is a proven threat, and he's played all of 17 games at the NFL level. Last year as a rookie, the USC product caught 72 passes for 866 yards and four touchdowns, including a 120-yard effort against the Buccaneers in Week 18.
While London and tight end Kyle Pitts are excellent targets, there’s little punch beyond them. Atlanta would have been well advised to find another capable talent, someone in the realm of Jakobi Meyers or JuJu Smith-Schuster. Instead, the Falcons are relying on Hollins, along with Scotty Miller and do-it-all first-year back Bijan Robinson.
It could all work out, but it could easily backfire as well.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 12 to 15
The Falcons have one of the league’s most favorable schedules. For starters, they play only four games against teams who made the playoffs last year, and two of those are against the rebuilding Buccaneers.
Additionally, Atlanta doesn’t have the same big road stretch that most NFC teams do this year. The Falcons don’t have a single three-game trip or four road tilts in five weeks.
If there’s a tough stretch, it’s after the bye week. Atlanta will emerge to face the Saints in Week 12 at home before traveling to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. Then it’s a home date with Tampa Bay before a trip to Carolina. Again, an easy slate awaits Atlanta.
Breakout player to watch: Drake London
As mentioned above, London had a terrific rookie campaign, during which he pushed for almost 900 receiving yards. Now, with a full offseason and 819 NFL snaps to his name, the 2022 first-round pick could be primed to explode.
Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports
London has excellent size at 6'4" and 213 pounds, and, while he never ran an official 40, it’s believed the time would have been around 4.5 seconds. The tools are there to become a Pro Bowl talent, and, if he can connect with Ridder and produce chemistry, there’s no limit to his game.
Atlanta will certainly give him the targets to make an impact. London simply needs to prove he’s the game-breaking star many believe he’ll become.
Position of strength: Front four
If there’s one thing we know about this Falcons team, it’s that they’ll rush the passer.
Atlanta spent real money upgrading its defense this offseason, and the additions of Campbell, Dupree and Onyemata are significant. Last year, Campbell posted 5.5 sacks in his age-36 season, while Onyemata had five in 17 games with the archrival Saints. Dupree was a disappointment in Tennessee over two years with only seven combined sacks, but when healthy, he’s capable of producing.
Of course, that trio will revolve around defensive tackle Grady Jarrett. Jarrett is a two-time Pro Bowler who has 32.5 career sacks and, alongside Onyemata, should cave in a few pockets come fall.
Position of weakness: Quarterback
Ridder isn’t so much a weakness as he is an unknown. The Falcons are essentially betting their entire season on a player with four starts who they didn’t take until the No. 74 pick of last year’s draft.
While Fontenot did bring in veteran Taylor Heinicke as insurance, he’s more of a break-glass option than anything else. If the Falcons are truly going to do something meaningful in 2023, it’ll be due to a surprise performance under center. Otherwise, Atlanta remains stuck in football purgatory, hoping to find its next Matt Ryan.
X-factor: Can Kyle Pitts find another gear?
Pitts is arguably the most-hyped tight end coming out of college in recent memory. After dominating to the tune of 1,492 yards and 18 touchdowns at Florida, Pitts made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. However, he was limited to 10 games last year, totaling 28 catches for 356 yards and two scores.
Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports
The Falcons didn’t draft Pitts to be a good player—they drafted him to be special. So far, he’s shown glimpses but is yet to put the entire package together. For Atlanta to reach the playoffs, Pitts needs to be a driving force.
Sleeper/fantasy pick: QB Desmond Ridder
Ridder is more of a “deep sleeper,” as he’s not being selected in the majority of traditional, one-quarterback leagues. The second-year field general will have Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts at his disposal. Ridder will also face one of the five best schedules among quarterbacks in 2023. —Michael Fabiano, SI Fantasy
Best bet: Let’s take the over for 1100.5 rushing yards for Robinson
Tyler Allgeier logged 1,035 in this run-first Smith offense in 2022, and Robinson should have more opportunity than Allgeier in his first season after the Falcons took him as the eighth pick in the NFL draft. —Jennifer Piacenti, SI Betting
