Had Scottish nationalists got their way, 2023 would have seen the country head to the polls in a second referendum over independence from the United Kingdom – and they might have won. Whereas the first attempt in 2014 resulted in 55% voting “no,” polls suggest that after Brexit, a majority of Scots might now favor secession.
But that plan for a fresh referendum was scuppered in November 2022, when the U.K. Supreme Court decided that Scotland could not hold such a vote without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. And that permission seems unlikely given that the governing Conservative Party believes the 2014 referendum settled the debate “for a generation.” Even a change of government is unlikely to matter, with the opposition Labour Party indicating that it too is not inclined to allow a second vote.
