As of early March 2025, investors—and consumers—have once again begun to feel skittish about the possibility of an impending recession. At least two major factors have contributed most recently to this sentiment: first, a dreaded inverted yield curve in the final days of February, and second, the Atlanta Fed's model to predict GDP growth for the first quarter of the year was revised down to -2.8% on March 3, when it had been +4.0% about a month before.
While it will be some time before analysts can confirm (or firmly disprove) that we are in a recession, investors have taken the hint. As of March 6, 2025, the S&P 500 is more than 2% in the last five days of trading and has erased all upward progress made so far this year.
