On May 12, the April reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. Polymarket predicts the number is most likely to come in at 3.7% or 3.8%. That "more of the same" result would support the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged.
With energy prices surging on Middle East tensions, it would seem rate cuts are firmly off the table. Unless there's a downside surprise. Incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh has aligned with a narrative that productivity gains from artificial intelligence (AI) will be a "significant deflationary force"—one that could offset energy-driven pressures and put rate cuts back on the table.
