The retail sector was one of the biggest winners in earnings season, which was especially evident in some of the reports that rolled in last week. Eight major retailers reported earnings within 48 hours, and nearly all beat on headline numbers. But headline numbers rarely tell the story, and this quarter was especially deceiving. Tariff refunds have done to earnings what steroids did to baseball players in the 1990s, and these juiced results can mask underlying weakness.
Take Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF), for example, which soared more than 35% after its Q2 release on an impressive double beat and buyback increase. But the company accumulated about $100 million in tariff refunds during the period, boosting margin by 790 basis points (bps) and adding $1.75 to the $4.12 earnings per share (EPS) figure. Another $20 million in refunds is expected in Q3, but comps were weak, especially at Hollister.
