The 49ers have every reason to be confident entering their NFC championship showdown against the Lions. They’re heavily favored, they have a better roster, and they’ve been in this situation twice in the last two years. This is perhaps their best chance to win an NFC title game since they hosted the Green Bay Packers in January of 2020.
We’ve covered some of the causes for concern, now here are some reasons the 49ers should be optimistic Sunday at Levi’s Stadium:
Pass attack
It’s been rare that 49ers QB Brock Purdy has two really bad games in a row. The last time he had a QB rating of 86.7 or worse he backed it up with a 124.7 rating. The time before that he backed it up with a 148.8 rating. The time before that he backed it up with a 94.2 rating. His only consecutive really tough games of the year were in Weeks 6 and 7 when he posted QB ratings of 55.3 and 81.5. Not that QB rating is the greatest indicator of QB play, but it gives a good blanket cover of completion rate, yards, touchdowns and interceptions. Obviously there’s more to the position than that, but it’s pretty rare Purdy is as bad as he was Saturday vs. the Packers, and then equally bad or worse the next week. With dry weather in the forecast and a Lions pass defense that ranked 27th in yards and passing TDs allowed, Purdy is primed for another strong bounce back game.
Jared Goff playing outside
It should be stated up top here that Goff had a good year. He completed 67.3 percent of his throws for 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. However, most of his success came while playing within the confines of a dome. He has not been nearly as good on the road or outdoors. At home he completed 70.1 percent of his passes with 19 TDs and 6 INTs, and threw for 8.1 yards per attempt. Those numbers on the road dipped to a 64.8 percent completion rate with 11 TDs, 6 INTs and a 7.1 YPA.
The numbers are even more stark when Goff plays outdoors. In a dome this year he sat at a 70.2 percent completion rate with 24 TDs, 6 INTs and 8.1 YPA in 11 games. Outdoors he dropped to 63.6 percent completions, 5 TDs, 4 INTs and just 6.1 YPA in five games.
Sunday’s game will be on the road and outdoors against a 49ers pass defense that led the NFL in interceptions. That equation paints a good picture for San Francisco.
YAC back
While the Lions are good after the catch, the 49ers are even better. Tight end George Kittle and running back Christian McCaffrey were among the best at their positions in generating YAC. Not to mention WR Deebo Samuel who’s status at press time is uncertain. The Lions secondary can be had, and they’re as capable of missing tackles as the 49ers are. With a stout Detroit run defense up front, San Francisco will have to get creative in getting the ball to its playmakers in space where they can pick up yards after the catch. The good news for them is with head coach Kyle Shanahan and this group of playmakers, they’re the most well-equipped team in the NFL to come up with YAC when they need it.
