Oil prices are sending shock waves through the market and giving energy stocks a much-needed boost. A similar, but different, story is emerging with natural gas. The spot price of natural gas has been down since the conflict with Iran began. The United States Energy Administration cites milder-than-expected February weather that left more gas in storage. Plus, the rise in oil prices is driving up production in the Permian basin, which produces more associated natural gas as a byproduct.
However, there are geopolitical concerns that could mean higher natural gas prices even if the shock to oil prices is transitory. It’s all about what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through the Strait. Most of this comes from Qatar.
This is where the supply-demand imbalance comes in. Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant has shut down operations, which is a step it has never taken. That's removed about 14% of the global monthly forecast offline. That’s not noticeable in the United States, but Europe is noticing. Natural gas prices are up approximately 65%, the highest levels since March 2023.
The Questions Hanging Over the Market
Even if the conflict with Iran wraps up in the timeline being given by the Trump administration, it will take weeks, not days, for the Ras Laffan plant to come back online. Can the world make up the capacity, and how soon?
The answer seems to be not at the scale or delivery speed needed. This disruption comes at a time when demand for natural gas, and LNG in particular, has never been higher. The United States has opened three new facilities to help meet the demand, which is also coming from hyperscalers, but that won’t help in the short term.
That means it’s more likely than not that lower natural gas prices are the outlier. As investors, that can signal an opportunity.
Vermillion Energy Offers Direct Access to Premium LNG Markets
Vermillion Energy (NYSE: VET) stock is reflecting the current price of natural gas, but probably not the company’s current positioning. VET stock has soared over 50% in 2026. That puts it within 20% of its consensus price target.
The price movement has come despite a mixed earnings report in which the company beat on the bottom line but came in about $50 million short on revenue.
Vermillion is the only Canadian exploration and production (i.e., upstream) company that has direct, in-ground European natural gas production. This means it sells gas into the European market without paying LNG liquefaction, shipping, or regasification costs.
That will be a key factor as the company looks to expand its production in Germany.
A new well is expected to come online in the first half of 2026, and Vermillion already has an anchor buyer in Uniper, one of the largest energy utilities in Germany.
America’s Largest Gas Producer Is Betting Big on Price Upside
EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) is the largest U.S. natural gas producer by volume. EQT stock is up about 18% in 2026 and is trading within 5% of its consensus price target.
Like Vermillion, EQT delivered a mixed earnings report in March. However, since the beginning of March, analysts have been looking ahead, noting that EQT is completely unhedged for 2026.
That’s a bet by the company’s management that natural gas prices will move higher, and they don’t want to be locked into hedges that would force them to leave money on the table.
Adding to the bullish story, since reintegrating its Equitrans Midstream operation in 2024, the company’s breakeven price is down to $2/MMBtu (one million British thermal units, a standard natural-gas energy measure).
That means the company is generating solid profits from natural gas at current levels and will be even more profitable if natural gas rises.
Investors Can Play Natural Gas Directly With This ETF
Both Vermillion and EQT Corporation are attractive picks for rising natural gas prices. However, this may be a time when it pays to get direct exposure to the commodity itself. Investors can do that with the United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSEARCA: UNG).
The fund invests in a diversified basket of natural gas futures contracts. That explains why the ETF price is down more than 40% in the last 12 months and is down about 1% in 2026. The market in the United States has remained well supplied, even with the extreme cold weather this winter.
The price of UNG is up about 2% over the 30 days ending March 18, which could be explained by institutional ownership. It’s not widely held by institutions, but buying has outweighed selling in four of the last five months. That suggests that the big money believes that natural gas is moving higher.
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The article "3 Natural Gas Names to Watch as a Global Supply Shock Builds" first appeared on MarketBeat.
