The New England Patriots (2-3) are heading to Cleveland to face off against the Browns (2-3) in a matchup with former Patriot Jacoby Brissett, who is filling in for the suspended Deshaun Watson.
As the Patriots look to even their record at 3-3, their starting quarterback, Mac Jones, is still questionable from the high ankle sprain he suffered in the Week 3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
All signs are pointing to Jones returning in the next few games, but at this point, fans are awaiting the team’s announcement for the starting QB leading up to the game. Regardless of who’s at the helm, let’s take a look at three keys to this week’s game.
Power runs up the gut
The Patriots are facing one of the worst run defending teams in the league for a third straight week. With Damien Harris out, they have elevated rookie RB Kevin Harris to the 53-man roster to fill that power back role. Rhamondre Stevenson is fresh off a career game and will certainly be in line for another monster performance.
For the Patriots to win this game, I expect Kevin Harris to get some snaps ahead of Pierre Strong Jr. as Cleveland’s issues in stopping the run stem from their interior defenders, specifically their linebackers, who are built like the prototypical modern NFL linebacker—more poised to stop the pass than the run.
The game is going to be another old school matchup as the Browns also like to run the ball and have one of the best offensive lines in the entire league, paired with the best running back tandem in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
The Patriots do not have to “outrun” the Browns, but they need to be able to take advantage of the Browns’ poor run defense and hope their own defense is good enough to force Jacoby Brissett to beat them through the air.
Red zone efficiency
Hunter Henry has not been good this season, and in turn, neither has the Patriots red zone offense. The Patriots are one of the least efficient teams in the NFL when it comes to converting in the red zone, which isn’t bad if you have Nick Folk on your fantasy team. But it’s terrible if you were banking on DeVante Parker or Henry to have monster seasons with an improved Mac Jones at the helm.
The Patriots should get plenty of opportunities in the red zone as their offense should be able to run the ball down main street all game long. If the Patriots wish to win this game, Bailey Zappe or Jones will need to find a way to convert on those opportunities, because as much as the Browns are in need of elite QB play, their offense is certainly capable of converting with their offensive line and running backs.
Find a way to contain Myles Garrett
Garrett won’t be completely stopped. So the Patriots’ offensive line will need to do a good job at containing some of the best edge setters in the game. It’ll be hard to truly create off tackle in this game, but Trent Brown has been amazing this season with advanced metrics showing how well he’s held up to difficult assignments.
JaMaree Salyer:
– Faced the hardest assignments of any Offensive Tackles in the NFL this year
– One of the absolute best Offensive Tackles in the NFL this yearWhat a beast pic.twitter.com/pNb1sTLmhq
— DotsNCuts (@DotsNCuts) October 13, 2022
What worries me is that the Browns will likely attack Isaiah Wynn, who has been a revolving door all year long and is costing the team drives with penalties.
According to the same chart above, Wynn’s difficulty of assignment is lower than most, yet his grade over expectation is actually lower, putting him towards the bottom of the league for all offensive tackles. But you don’t need advanced metrics to see that. If the Patriots can contain the edge and work through the middle of the field, they should be able to contain Garrett enough to take the pressure off Zappe.
