The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the verge of pulling off the impossible: rallying from a 2-6 start to the year to make the playoffs. If the Jaguars can avoid losing ground on the Tennessee Titans in the next two weeks, they’ll play their division rival for the AFC South title in Week 18.
But that means there isn’t much room for error and stakes are high in a Thursday Night Football contest against the New York Jets.
The Jets have plenty of incentive to show up too with a 7-7 record that has them currently just outside an AFC Wild Card berth. New York was in the driver’s seat not too long ago, but a three-game losing streak has the team scrambling to pull out of its tailspin before it’s too late.
So what do the Jaguars need to do to make it three wins in a row and keep climbing closer to the Titans? Here are three keys to success on Thursday:
Take care of the football in the rain
When the Jaguars traveled to play the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4 everything was going fantastic early in the game. Andre Cisco recorded a pick six off Jalen Hurts and Jacksonville’s second possession of the game was an 80-yard touchdown drive.
Then the early 14-point lead evaporated when Trevor Lawrence couldn’t hold on to the ball. The Jaguars’ second-year quarterback fumbled four times and lost all of them. He also threw an interception in the red zone.
It was the start of a very rough month of October for Lawrence. But since that month ended, Lawrence has been stellar. He has 14 touchdowns and only one interception in his last six games.
With cold temperatures, wind, and plenty of rain in the forecast Thursday, the Jaguars need more of the Lawrence who has been shredding the league and less of the one who self-destructed in Philadelphia.
Coaches can help him by not putting too much emphasis on the pass game, but regardless if it’s Lawrence dropping back to pass or fumble-prone Travis Etienne getting carries, the Jaguars have to avoid putting the ball on the ground.
Make Zach Wilson beat you
The Jets are only starting the No. 2 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft because the Buffalo Bills forced them by fracturing three of Mike White’s ribs.
Wilson spent three weeks watching from the sideline because the Jets desperately needed a change at quarterback. In his last performance before the benching, Wilson completed only nine of his 22 passes for 77 yards in a 10-3 loss to the New England Patriots.
While Wilson managed to throw for 317 yards in his return performance last week against the Lions, he still completed only 51.4 percent of his passes. Not once in his career has Wilson thrown for at least 300 yards and completed at least 60 percent of his passes. Lawrence did that three times in the last four weeks.
All of that to say, the Jaguars defense’s best chance at getting off the field is forcing Wilson to throw because that often results in incompletions and interceptions.
Sustain drives
The over/under total for Thursday opened at 43, but has slowly dwindled down into the mid-30s as it’s become increasingly apparent that the weather is going to be horrible.
Jacksonville has managed to score 76 points in the last two weeks, but lighting up the scoreboard at MetLife Stadium could be a challenge. What the game may devolve into is a battle for field position.
While the Jets offense is nothing to write home about, the team’s defense is built for the challenge of a sloppy game. Opposing offenses average just 26.3 yards per drive against the Jets defense, the lowest in the NFL. Those drives last just two minutes, 38 seconds on average, fourth lowest in the league.
Stringing together a 15-play, 80-yard drive in the cold, wind, and rain could be too much to ask from the Jaguars. But Jacksonville can’t win a field position battle if it allows that stout Jets defense to rack up three-and-out after three-and-out.
The Jaguars have to find a way to scratch and claw their way to first downs.
