Believe it or not, the Jacksonville Jaguars have a real chance at making a push for the playoffs if they can win Sunday at Ford Field.
For now, the Jaguars are three games out of both the AFC South and the wild card race. But with two matchups left against the Tennessee Titans, who have a tough test against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, the table is set for the Jaguars to make a run.
But those dreams will all but disappear if Jacksonville can’t beat the resurgent Detroit Lions.
After starting the year 1-6, the Lions ripped off three straight wins to get back on track. While the streak ended on Thanksgiving, the Lions’ 28-25 loss to the Buffalo Bills on a last-second field goal was far from embarrassing.
That sets the stage for a meeting of 4-7 teams that come into Week 13 with more momentum and buzz than their records would suggest. Here are three keys to the Jaguars leaving Detroit with a 5-7 record:
Run the ball
The Ravens are among the toughest in the NFL to run against, so the Jaguars managing only 38 rushing yards last week wasn’t too surprising, especially with Travis Etienne sidelined for almost all of the game.
Detroit is the exact opposite. No team has allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Lions and the 5.2 yards they’ve allowed per rushing attempt is better than only the Los Angeles Chargers’ porous defensive front (5.4 yards).
With Etienne expected to be back in action Sunday, the Jaguars would be wise to grind away on the ground the way they did in the 27-20 win over the Las Vegas Raiders when Etienne had 28 carries for 109 yards and two touchdowns.
The 2022 Lions have only held two opponents under 100 rushing yards (Washington Commanders and New York Giants) and won both those games.
Whether it’s a steady dose of Etienne, an occasional run with Trevor Lawrence, or some more carries for JaMycal Hasty and/or Snoop Conner, the Jaguars have to rack up yardage with the run.
Stay on schedule
It’s not surprising that one of the NFL’s worst rush defenses is also terrible at forcing punts.
The average drive against the Lions goes for 40 yards and results in 2.58 points, both of which are the most in the NFL. No team has allowed more first downs and Detroit is the only team that’s allowing opponents to convert third downs more than half of the time.
The aforementioned running game would help the Jaguars avoid negative plays and long distance downs, but efficiency in the pass game can do the trick too.
Trevor Lawrence completed 76.9 percent of his passes in the month of November with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Jacksonville needs more of that and less of the sacks that slowed down the offense in the last two weeks.
Force a turnover (or two or three)
Not much was different about the Lions that went 1-6 to start the year and the more recent version of Detroit that won three of its last four. The offense has been a top 10 unit all year and the defense has lagged way behind.
The biggest change was that the Lions stopped turning the ball over much. After turning the ball over 11 times in their first six games, the Lions have only three giveaways in the last five weeks.
Detroit has committed only one turnover in its four wins, and turned the ball over 13 times in the seven losses.
Takeaways came in bunches early in the season for the Jaguars before the defense had a stretch of three straight games without forcing a turnover. But Jacksonville has forced at least one in four straight games and has five takeaways in the last two weeks.
Continuing that trend by playing opportunistic football and maybe actually generating a pass rush would slow down the potent Lions offense.
