The Chicago Bears (3-9) will host the Green Bay Packers (4-8) in the final game between the two division rivals this year. The Bears are on a five-game losing streak, and the Packers, once expected to win the NFC North, have lost two in a row after ending their five-game losing streak in week 10.
Chicago looks to end their losing streak and get revenge after Green Bay embarrassed them 27-10 on the road in Lambeau Field in Week 2. Despite 2022 being a rebuilding year, the Bears winning over the Packers would make things a little brighter.
The Bears have lost seven straight to the Packers and trail in the all-time series 95-104-6. But none of that matters on Sunday. Here are three things Chicago’s offense needs to do to end Green Bay’s rivalry dominance.
1
Take advantage of Green Bay's weak run defense
Since losing star edge rusher Rashan Gary and All-Pro linebacker De’Vondre Campbell to injuries, the Green Bay defense has struggled to stop the run. Since losing the duo of Gary and Campbell, the defense has allowed 203 yards rushing and roughly two touchdowns over the last three games.
Chicago has the best rushing offense in the NFL, and the Packers are the 31st worst rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 5.5 yards per rush and at least one touchdown per game.
The Bears’ rushing attack isn’t the same without Justin Fields, but it is still a top-20 rushing offense averaging 4.7 yards per rush (10th best). They can win if Chicago effectively runs the football and controls the game’s pace.
2
If the Bears get a lead, hold onto it
Chicago jumped out to a 7-3 lead in the first meeting back in Week 2. If the Bears find themselves in the lead again, they have to keep it – that’s not easy versus the Packers. When trailing, the Green Bay defense turns up the intensity.
The Packers defense has five interceptions (63% of the total) while trailing and making life hard for opposing offenses. Quarterbacks’ completion percentage drops from 65-70% when tied or losing to Green Bay, but once leading, it drops to 64%.
However, it’s more than just the passing game that struggles. Running backs’ yards per rush drop from 5.7 to 4.4 yards, and the Packers continue applying pressure while losing.
3
Avoid third-and-long vs. the Packers defense
To beat Green Bay, it’s as simple as avoiding third and long. The Packers defense has three interceptions (38% of the total) and their only defensive touchdown on third-and-long. While the Green Bay defense has struggled and allows teams to have the ninth longest offensive drives, those teams aren’t getting caught in third-and-long often.
On third-and-long, teams only convert 22% of the time versus the Packers. And for a team that allows quarterbacks to complete 65% of their passes, Green Bay holds quarterbacks to a 58% completion percentage. So the easiest way for the Bears to lose on Sunday is to continue to get into third-and-long situations.
