The oil market has been making headlines, but the real story may not be geopolitical—it could be structural. As artificial intelligence drives unprecedented electricity demand, the companies keeping the grid running look increasingly like the best long-term energy plays available right now.
Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist at the Oxford Club, makes the case that energy has quietly become the picks-and-shovels story of the AI era. Just as the merchants supplying gold rush miners often outpaced the prospectors, the energy companies fueling today's data centers may ultimately generate more durable returns than the technology names drawing all the attention. With U.S. electricity demand forecast to grow roughly 3.5% annually through 2030, Lichtenfeld sees three stocks positioned to benefit—regardless of where oil prices settle.
Halliburton Is Drilling Into a Demand Surge
Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) isn't the company pulling oil out of the ground. It supplies the equipment and personnel that make drilling possible, which gives it a different risk profile than pure-play producers.
That positioning looks increasingly attractive. U.S. rig counts have been rising for the first time in years, and the political momentum behind domestic energy production is accelerating the cycle.
As oil companies expand drilling programs, they need equipment—and Halliburton gets paid either way.
The stock has been climbing steadily, not just spiking. Lichtenfeld notes it has been in a sustained uptrend rather than a headline-driven pop, which he views as a sign of durable demand rather than speculative momentum.
The company has increased activity outside the Middle East, with a significant footprint in U.S. onshore fracking operations, limiting its exposure to regional conflict risk.
Lichtenfeld attributes earnings growth projections of roughly 23% for the current year to the company, with continued expansion into 2028. Even at those estimates, he notes the stock is trading at a modest multiple—and at 21X earnings on $40 per share, he sees a path to $60 without requiring an aggressive valuation assumption.
One important note: like most oilfield services companies, Halliburton tends to lag the broader oil cycle. Contracts take time to wind down, so even if energy prices pull back, the revenue pipeline stays relatively intact for months. That lag can be a feature for investors entering during a period of uncertainty.
Chevron Plays Defense While the Market Celebrates
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is the kind of company that writes the checks Halliburton cashes. As one of the world's largest integrated oil producers, Chevron generates roughly 4 million barrels per day—around 4%-5% of global output.
What makes the current setup compelling isn't just scale. Chevron completed its acquisition of Hess Corporation in mid-2025, giving it a stake in what Lichtenfeld describes as one of the highest-margin, lowest-cost oil fields in the world off the coast of Guyana. That acquisition is expected to boost margins, earnings, and free cash flow in the years ahead.
The company also recently signed a long-term gas supply agreement with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to power data centers in Texas—a direct line into the AI infrastructure buildout that most traditional energy investors aren't fully pricing in.
Chevron derives less than 5% of its production from the Middle East, which limits its exposure to the geopolitical volatility currently rattling oil markets. Its dividend yield sits near 3.8%, and the company has a long track record of raising that payout annually. At roughly 7X forward free cash flow, the valuation appears reasonable to Lichtenfeld for what is ultimately a defensive compounder.
This isn't a stock built for explosive short-term gains. Lichtenfeld frames it as a portfolio anchor—something that quietly compounds over five to 10 years while absorbing volatility when higher-growth names hit turbulence. In a market where speculation is running hot, that kind of ballast matters.
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Finances the Energy Transition
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (NYSE: HASI) offers a different angle on the same theme. Formerly known as Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, the company doesn't build solar or wind projects—it finances them, collecting interest from developers rather than generating energy revenue directly.
The renewables sector has largely shrugged off the policy headwinds coming from Washington, and Lichtenfeld thinks that makes sense. The demand for energy is simply too great for any single source to satisfy. Oil, gas, nuclear, solar, and wind all have a role to play, and capital is flowing accordingly.
HASI recently received an investment-grade credit rating upgrade to BBB-, which should reduce its cost of borrowing at a time when it's lending out capital at roughly twice what it pays to raise it. That spread—borrowing in the mid-single digits and deploying at around 10%—is the core of the business model, and a better credit profile could widen it further.
The portfolio is broadly diversified: more than 1,300 investments across 150 clients, with some contracts extending 30 years. That long-dated cash flow base supports both dividend sustainability and earnings predictability. Lichtenfeld notes that adjusted earnings per share grew roughly 10% in the most recent full year, and he sees double-digit growth continuing through 2028. The stock carries a roughly 4.4% dividend yield and, despite a near-doubling over the past year, trades at less than 12X its 2028 guidance.
It's more speculative than Chevron, and a shift in Washington policy in 2028 would represent a meaningful upside catalyst. For investors looking for energy exposure that isn't tied directly to the oil price cycle, HASI offers a distinct entry point.
The Energy Opportunity Hiding in Plain Sight
Energy doesn't need a geopolitical crisis to matter—it just needs the world to keep running. Whether the catalyst is AI data centers, a growing global middle class, or the eventual reopening of constrained supply routes, demand isn't going away. Halliburton captures the domestic drilling buildout, Chevron offers scale and stability with a direct line into AI infrastructure, and HASI provides exposure to the renewable financing side of the transition. The technology sector gets the headlines, but it's the energy companies keeping the lights on that may prove to be the more durable long-term bet.
The article "3 Energy Stocks Built for the AI Power Boom—And Beyond" first appeared on MarketBeat.
