The Indianapolis Colts are back at home on Sunday for a Week 7 matchup with the Miami Dolphins, who are coming off their bye week.
It wasn’t always pretty, but against a struggling Tennessee offense a week ago, the Colts’ defense did its job when it mattered most late in the fourth quarter, helping Indianapolis secure the needed win.
Having had the bye week, the Dolphins will have had additional rest and time to prepare for this game, although they still won’t have Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback and have struggled mightily without him under center.
Week to week, it’s not exactly easy to know what to expect from this Colts’ defense, but how this unit performs this Sunday will largely be determined by the answers to these three key questions.
Can the Colts get off the field on third downs?
Something has to give in this matchup. Without Tagovailoa, the Dolphins will enter Sunday’s game as one of the worst third-down offense in football. However, on the other side of the ball, the Colts defense has been one of the worst third-down units.
A key to the Colts win over Tennessee last week was the third-down discrepancy. While Indianapolis converted nearly 50 percent of their attempts, the Titans were just 4-for-11.
The trickle-down effect is that the Colts offense stayed on the field more often while the Tennessee offense was unable to sustain drives and in a close game, the 11 additional plays on offense that the Colts ran proved to be important.
Ultimately, third down success for a defense often begins on first down and putting the offense behind the sticks and into predictable passing situations where the defense has the advantage.
Can the Colts create pressure?
Pressure is always important–we know that. However, it’s a big question this week because the Colts have struggled to do that over the last two games.
Now, in part, Jacksonville and Tennessee did make it difficult because they did rely so heavily on the quick passing game. Injuries are a factor for the Colts as well. But with that said, for a defense that is built through the trenches, winning up front at a higher rate is a must.
Combined these past two weeks, Will Levis and Trevor Lawrence have been under pressure on only nine of their 64 total dropbacks. A pressure rate of 26 percent isn’t sustainable and puts a massive burden on the secondary when the quarterback has regular time.
The Miami offensive line enters this game ranked 15th in pressure rate and 12th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric. Quarterback Tyler Huntley, is just 4-for-12 passing when under pressure these last two games, according to PFF.
Have they actually improved their tackling?
As we detailed recently, missed tackles have been a major issue for the Colts defense this season, resulting in explosive plays in the run game and heavy YAC opportunities for the opposing passing game.
However, the Tony Pollard touchdown run withstanding, the defense was much improved in this regard against Tennessee. Pro Football Focus would credit the Colts with only three missed tackles in that game.
So now the big question is, was there actual improvements made or was that an outlier performance? In many instances, overall success begins with executing the fundamentals correctly, and that includes wrapping up and swarming to the ball carrier to limit additional yards.
