Using Advanced analytics to cut through the smoke
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The regular season is over. All that’s left is the conference tournament and then any post season tournaments Mountain West teams get into. It has been a wild season with a ot of parity throughout the league. The talent this year is arguably better than it’s been top to bottom in a long time.
The past few seasons I have looked at who were the best players in the conference, using a combination of advanced analytics. This entry marks the second installment for the 2021-22 season.
Three different advanced analytics will be used. The analytics are: Player Impact Plus Minus, Points Over Expectation, and Bayesian Performance Rating.
These 3 contributions put together should give us a good idea of who’s performed the best this season, as they measure different things, such as impact vs. efficiency. They all also measure contributions on the offensive and defensive sides of the floor, enabling them to paint a full picture.
2022 Mountain West Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule Announced
Player Impact Plus Minus – Also known as PIPM, this is an impact stat that primarily takes it’s measurements from box score stats. Basically, it measures how well a player has performed in the role they’re in. A player being used in the way that best suits their skill set will have a higher score than a player who is talented in certain areas but not able to show that talent off. As an example, if Hunter Maldonado was asked to shoot 3 pointers all game he would hurt his team, as that’s not his skill set. This statistic is important because no matter how purely talented a player may be, if the player doesn’t use the talents correctly it will hurt the team and prevent winning. PIPM also makes adjustments for the quality of opponents. For more on PIPM click here.
Points Over Expectation – Also known as POE, this is an efficiency stat. It takes into account the number and type of shots a player takes (or defends) and compares the outcome to what an average player would’ve done with the same number and type of shots. A score of zero is the equivalent of an average player. Since POE takes into account the number of shots, than the higher usage a player has, the more likely they are to be farther from 0. So players that are really efficient on large volume are the ones that get good scores here. It is also a per game stat, as opposed to a per 100 possession stat. Since basketball is about scoring more points than your opponent, someone who can score, and defend, at an efficient level is a valuable player. For more on POE click here.
Bayesian Performance Rating: Bayesian Performance Rating, or BPR, attempts to qualify the value a player gives their team while on the court primarily by measuring offensive and defensive ratings while a player is on the floor. It is an impact stat in the vein of PIPM, but uses different inputs to estimate the impact a player has. Similar to PIPM, it makes adjustments for the quality of teammates as well as opponents in it’s calculations, so that fans can better determine who is good vs. who plays with good teammates. A score of 0 is considered average. To learn more about BPR click here.
Combining the different methodologies of who helps their team when they’re on the floor, who looks good in the box score, and who is efficient should give us a pretty good feel for who has perfromed well this season, as these metrics will help cover up each other’s weaknesses.
Simply taking the average of these numbers won’t work though, as they measure different things. So Z-scores will be used. Basically, Z-scores measure how far away something is from average, with zero considered to be average. Once the Z-scores for all three metrics are calculated, the average of those numbers will be taken to determine who has been the best so far.
To give you a feel for Z-scores, last year, using the same methodology, Jordan Schakel led the league with a score of 2.777, and Neemias Queta came in second with a score of 2.694. Bryce Hamilton was considered pretty average with a Z-Score of 0.074.
With the boring explanation out of the way, lets look at the results.
First though, a couple superlatives.
Who’s carried the heaviest offensive burden so far?
When taking into account scoring, spacing, and shot creation (for self and others) using the offensive load metric, Grant Scherfield is responsible for 49.84% of Nevada’s offense when he is on the court. It is not terribly surprising given how good Sherfield is at everything. He ranks 6th in hte conference in points per game and rnaks second in the nation in assists per game. As long as Sherfield is around, he will have the keys to the offense. Bryce Hamilton comes in at a close second, carrying 49.54% of UNLV’s offense, and Orlando Robinson comes in third at 48.91%.
Who creates the most shots for their teammates so far?
No surprise here, Grant Sherfield has been the ultimate facilitator in the conference so far according to the Box Creation metric. He is creating 10.45 open shots for teammates per 100 possessions. Hunter Maldonado comes in 2nd with 9.21 open shots created per 100 possessions. David Roddy comes in third with 8.45.
Here are your top 10 players of the season:
*Stats accurate through 03/06/22
10. Marcus Shaver: 14 pts, 3.8 rebs, 2.1 Ast, 1.564 averaged Z-score.
Marcus Shaver has made a name for himself by hitting clutch shots. He had a streak of games in the conference season where he hit three pointers to either tie or take the lead late. Shaver is more than that though, he is a key part of the team that just won the regular season title. He is a smart lead guard with a positive assist-to-turnover ratio, who also does a great job stretching the floor to give space to cutters like Kigab. Having a guy who can hit the big shot late in a close game is vital to success in March. Combining that with one of the best defenses in the country will make the Broncos dangerous.
9. Orlando Robinson: 19.2 pts, 8.2 rebs, 2.8 Asts, 1.803 averaged Z-score.
Robinson has thrived in his role as the offensive center piece for Fresno St. He is almost unguardable on the low block, and can hit the occasional three pointer as well. His defense and rim protection are great as well, making him the type of unicorn player NBA teams are always looking for. PIPM has him as the most impactful player in the Mountain West. Robinson could have an argument for Player of the Year if the criteria was comparing what a team is with what they’d be without a certain player. He is the Cog that makes Fresno run, and combined with excellent team defense, the Bulldogs can pull off an upset or two in the conference tournament.
8. Abu Kigab: 14.7 pts, 5.9 rebs, 2.3 asts, 1.880 averaged Z-score.
Abu Kigab is arguably the MVP of this Boise St. team. The Broncos are known for folding late in the season, but they didn’t this year, largely due to the example set by Kigab. His motor is always running on overdrive, and his combination of ball handling, slashing, and defense is very valuable. Having guard skills and great athleticism at 6’7 makes him a matchup problem on both ends of the floor. He led the Broncos to their first outright Mountain West championship, and will be key in their hopes to winning the tournament, as well as making a run in the big dance.
7. Isaiah Stevens: 14.8 pts, 3.0 rebs, 4.9 asts, 1.944 averaged Z-score.
Isaiah Stevens has maybe regressed slightly from his sophomore season, but he has still been fantastic. The way he commands an offense is unmatched in the conference. He can makes the correct reads far more often than not, and can score from anywhere on the court. He is the best traditional point guard in the conference right now. Given how important guard play is in March, the Rams should really benefit having a guy like Stevens to steer the ship.
6. Tyson Degenhart: 10.2 pts, 3.9 rebs, 0.8 asts, 1.963 averaged Z-score.
Tyson Degenhart’s numbers aren’t as gaudy as some of the other players on this list, but he is very impactful. A lot of his impact comes on the defensive side of the ball, where he ranks as the 6th most efficient defender in the conference. His efficiency likely benefits from being a secondary or even tertiary option in the Broncos system, but that doesn’t mitigate the impact. Evan Miya has him as the 4th most impactful player in the conference. Between his shooting, defense, and the little thigns that don’t show up in the box score, when Degenhart is on the floor, the Broncos tend to play well. He should be far and away the favorite to win Freshman of the Year.
5. Matt Bradley: 17.8 pts, 5.3 rebs, 2.6 asts, 1.966 averaged Z-score.
Bradley took awhile to find his groove as an Aztec. His early games he often killed offensive flow with hero ball play and by missing tough two point shots. Over the last ten games though he has been outstanding, and has shot up these rankings because of it. At one point he was second-to-last on the team in +/-. He is currently third on the team, meaning he has played at an exceptional level. He has been scoring highly efficiently, and has been a great distributor when double teamed. His defense has also come around and he is no longer a liability on that end.
Bradley recently announced that he will be returning to SDSU next year. IF he can maintain this level of play over a full season he will compete for the number one spot in these rankings as well as POY. His early season performances hold him back, but next year he should hit the ground running.
4. Bryce Hamilton: 18.2 pts, 8.2 rebs, 2.7 asts, 2.067 averaged Z-score.
Bryce Hamilton shot up these rankings through January and February. He scored 20+ points in twelve of eighteen conference games, and leads the league in points per game. The biggest improvement is his efficiency. In the past he has been a chucker, someone who throws up shots because someone needs to. He was always skilled but was forced to take tough shots that killed his efficiency. This season those shots have fallen. That combined with his defensive improvement has resulted in him being the second most efficient player in the conference according to POE. UNLV is seen as a dark horse who could steal the conference championship on their homecourt, and that is largely due to Hamilton’s play over the last month or so.
3. Justin Bean: 17.8 pts, 9.8 rebs, 2.6 asts, 2.101 averaged Z-score.
Justin Bean came in at the number one spot as conference play was starting. He has slipped some since then, but has still quietly had a great season for an underachieving Aggies team. He is still the hard nosed defender and smart cutter and passer he always was. This season he added more ball handling and shooting ability to his arsenal, and it paid off. The Aggies disappointed relative to expectations, but Bean wasn’t the problem. If he comes back for a covid year Utah St. will be right in the thick of the race again next season.
2. Hunter Maldonado: 18.7 pts, 5.8 rebs, 6.4 asts, 2.133 averaged Z-score.
Hunter Maldonado is a problem. He is 6’7″ and under coach Jeff Linder has been used as a point guard. the only weakness in his game is lack of perimiter shooting. The move to point guard has helped remedy that, as he can back down smaller opponents and kick out to shooters when double teamed. He is fifth in the country in assists per game, can score almost at will, and is a good defender as well. He had a special season for Wyoming. The matchup problems he poses may catch an unsuspecting power team off guard in the march madness tournament.
1. David Roddy: 19.5 pts, 7.6 rebs, 2.8 asts, 3.053 averaged Z-score.
In the last five years (counting this season) only three players have gotten a score greater than 3. Using this methodology it is incredibly hard to do. Those players were Sam Merrill in 2019, and Malachi Flynn in 2020. Roddy is in rare company with this score.
The man is an absolute beast, able to overpower just about anyone regardless of size. He is just more physical than they are, and is able to muscle his way through to finish at the rim and collect rebounds that someone his size hsould have no business getting to. The fact that he shot 46% from deep and is a great passer as well makes him borderline unguardable. His combination of Size, agility, physicality, and skill make him the best player in the league this season. Did I mention he also played football in High School?
