This week features a five-game slate with eight conference teams in action.
Among them are three league games, including UTEP’s maiden Mountain West game and the first conference contest inside the Fargodome.
Air Force and UNLV step back out of conference for games against Navy and Cal, respectively. Northern Illinois and Nevada have byes.
Here is a look at the Mountain West games this week.
Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons
Saturday, October 3
10:00 AM PT, CBS
Line: Air Force –3
Over/Under: 46.5
Navy is 1-2 on the season and 0-2 in conference games while Air Force is 2-1 and 1-1 in MW play. But none of that matters in the slightest bit in this one.
Since 2002, the Midshipmen have been excellent against their service academy brethren, going 31-15 in their last 46 vs. Air Force and Army.
This matchup in Colorado Springs could help the Falcons, as the home team is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
But those three road wins have come in the last five meetings.
Not to overstate the obvious, but stopping the run will be the key. Both teams like to run it and both teams run the ball well.
In fact, through three games, both the Falcons and Mids have gained exactly 1,001 yards on the ground tying for the second most in the nation, while averaging 333.7 yards per outing. Only Army has run for more yardage.
The edge stopping the run so far this season lies with Navy. The Midshipmen have held two of three opponents to under 45 yards on the ground and 1.3 yards per carry.
They limited their third opponent, UAB, to 116 yards on 34 totes. The Falcons gave up 146 to a very good NDSU team, but last week allowed Nevada to run for 187 at 5.3 yards a pop.
Containing Navy will be an issue.
On the other hand, Navy has not been good against the pass at all. The Midshipmen are 122nd in the country against the pass and have been prone to allowing the big play.
Thirteen of the 17 completions for Air Force this season have been 10+ yards, while seven have gone for 20 yards or more.
I like Liam Szarka to make just enough big plays with his arm and his legs for the Falcons to prevail.
It will be close—it almost always is between these two—but Air Force wins, and the score stays low.
Winner: Air Force
ATS: Navy
O/U: Under
California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels
Saturday, October 3
12:30 PM PT, CBS Sports Network
Line: UNLV –2.5
Over/Under: 52.5
On paper, this one looks like a tight affair. Both teams have struggled to score points. Both are allowing 364 yards per game.
The Bears have thrown it better, but the ground game has been bad. The Rebels have been able to run the ball, but they have struggled when putting it in the air.
Even the line has swayed. Cal opened as a slight favorite, but the early money has pushed the line in favor of UNLV.
For Cal, it is pretty simple: If Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele plays well, they have had success. When he struggles, the offense has been rough.
In the Bears’ two wins this season, JKS has completed 71.6% of his passes for 297.5 yards per game with a 5-0 TD-to-INT ratio. In the losses it has only been 57.1% for 195 with just two TDs and four INTs.
His QB rating has dipped from 170.87 in wins to 101.94 in the two losses.
The protection has also been better in the wins, as the Bears have allowed 2.5 sacks per game in the two losses compared to just one total sack allowed in the two wins.
UNLV has done a great job of getting to the QB—but only in their two wins.
The Rebels 2.5 sacks per game are the second most in the MW and 36th nationally, but in the two wins they are getting to the QB four times per game while it is just once in the two losses.
UNLV will want to run the ball, and in the two games they ran the ball effectively, they won. In the two games they struggled on the ground, they lost.
For the Cal defense, it is the same. UCLA and Clemson destroyed the Bears on the ground. They were decent against the run in the wins over Syracuse and Wagner. (Amazing how that seems to work out).
So, the question is who will do those things better this week and get the win? I think it is Cal.
The Rebels will move the ball on the ground, but I think the Cal line holds up and gives JKS time to operate, and that leads to a Cal victory.
Winner: Cal
ATS: Cal
O/U: Over
Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State Bison
Saturday, October 3
12:30 PM PT, CW
Line: North Dakota State–18.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Lot of new-ness in this one. It is the first Mountain West conference home game for North Dakota State.
And while the contest may or may not offer a glimpse at a new rivalry, it will at least offer a new trophy game.
The winner takes home “The Battle of the Basins Trophy.”
The Cowboys are coming off perhaps their best performance of the season in a 27-10 win over Hawaii. The Bison are coming off a bye. That freshness vs. UW coming off a hard-fought game could be a factor.
The crowd inside the Fargodome could and most likely will also be a factor. This could end up being the most difficult road atmosphere in the Mountain West, and the Bison will feed off the energy of the sellout crowd.
The most glaring difference on the stat sheet is the turnover margin. NDSU is +8 on the season to rank third in the nation while Wyoming is –6, ranking 134th. Tyler Hughes will need to take care of the football.
The Bison are also third in the nation with 1.75 interceptions per outing, and the Cowboy passer’s five interceptions thrown this season are more than all but four QBs nationally.
A sure way to fire up a raucous crowd is by creating takeaways, and the Bison might do that in bunches on Saturday.
The Bison have limited opponents this season, posting the 16th-best defense in the country. Wyoming will have a difficult time sustaining much on offense.
If they gift NDSU and Nathan Hayes with a short field, it could get lopsided in a hurry.
Winner: North Dakota State
ATS: NDSU
O/U: Under
UTEP Miners at New Mexico Lobos
Saturday, October 3
1:00 PM PT, MW+
Line: New Mexico –22.5
Over/Under: 48.5
A bit of history will be made in Albuquerque this week as UTEP gets set top open MW play against the Lobos.
And Scotty Walden’s Miners have to be looking forward to opening their conference slate, because the non-conference portion of the schedule did not go well.
UTEP was outscored 136-24 in their three games against FBS opponents.
So, non-con is done; that is the good news. The bad news is the conference slate opens with a trip to New Mexico.
The Lobos have certainly looked like the class of the league for the opening month of the season. UNM has looked sharp on both sides of the football, and the offense has moved the ball well on the ground.
Scottre Humphrey is coming off his second 100-yard game of the season, and he, along with Kiefer Sibley and the ground attack, are going to be the engine behind the offense.
The passing game is starting to come along a bit more, though, and should continue to improve as Toa Fa’avae starts to get more comfortable with more and more reps each game.
UTEP has allowed 6.9 yards per play this season in their three games against FBS opponents. The Miners will have a hard time slowing down the New Mexico offense.
To find success, the UTEP offense will need to do more with the football.
The Miners are the second-worst team in the nation at converting third downs this season with a success rate of just 25.5%.
The inability to keep drives moving, as well as far too many three-and-outs, just overtaxes the defense.
UNM has not opened MW play 1-0 since 2018; that changes this week. The Lobos are the better team, and it will show
Winner: New Mexico
ATS: New Mexico
O/U: Under
San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Saturday, October 3
9:00 PM PT, MW+
Line: Hawaii –3
Over/Under: 51.5
Hawaii was my pick as a team that could surprise not only the MW but even on the National stage in 2026.
They have certainly surprised folks this season, but not in a good way.
At 1-3, it is not a stretch to say the opening month has been a major disappointment for Timmy Chang and the Rainbow Warriors. And that disappointment may have hit a new low after the loss at Wyoming a week ago.
The Spartans had last week off following a 16-point loss at home to archrival Fresno State.
San Jose State has won five straight over the ‘Bows, including each of the last three on the Island. The Spartans have scored in each of their last 13 quarters played against Hawaii.
Micah Alejado threw for a career-high in yardage against New Mexico State two weeks ago. Dating back to last season, the QB has only thrown one interception in his last 249 pass attempts.
Hawaii will need him to be sharp. Both teams will look to move the ball through the air, and the team that takes care of the ball better will have the edge.
Alejado’s opposite number, and former backup, Luke Weaver has spun it well this season but the turnovers have been an issue.
Weaver has thrown five interceptions in 2026, and gave it away four times in the loss to Fresno State.
If the Spartans can’t get better play this week, it could be a long day.
I think Hawaii does just enough to get the win at home in this one.
Winner: Hawaii
ATS: Hawaii
O/U: Over
