For the first time since the season opening Week 0, the Mountain West does not see a conference matchup.
Seven teams in the league step out of conference play in Week 3.
I highlight six of those contests here, with the NIU vs. Arizona game being the seventh. For that matchup, you can read Dane Miller’s Big 12 column on Thursday.
I am expecting a mixed bag for the conference this week.
I think New Mexico will prove themselves worthy on a national stage, and Nevada and North Dakota State will get wins.
Meanwhile, look for Wyoming, UTEP, and San Jose State to continue their struggles.
Here are my previews of key Mountain West games this week.
Wyoming at Central Michigan
Saturday, September 19
10:00 AM PT, ESPN+
Line: CMU –1.5
Over/Under: 39.5
A showdown awaits in Mount Pleasant on Saturday.
Central Michigan has played twice, getting blown out by New Mexico before evening their record by squeaking out a win over FCS Colgate 13-10.
The narrow win over a lower division side is never ideal, but it is a lot better than losing one of those games. And that is exactly what the Cowboys are coming off of.
At 0-2, UW followed up their opening loss to rival Colorado State with an eight-point defeat at the hands of Northern Colorado.
So, yeah, this one will be something.
Through the first two weeks of the season, the Cowboys have been one of the worst teams offensively, ranking 126th nationally with 2,885 yards of offense per outing.
One of the 12 teams that have been worse offensively this season? The Chippewas!
CMU is 137th with only 212.5 yards of production per game. So, the under 39.5 looks pretty darn good this week.
While the offenses have been problematic for both teams, the Chips have been decent on defense, holding opponents below 300 total yards on the season. The Cowboys have not been as good on that side of things, either.
Against Northern Colorado, Wyoming only managed 304 yards of offense and only ran for 155 yards in the game. That is a game in which UW should have been able to churn out yardage.
One bright spot was the production of Markell Holman and his 80 yards on 11 carries. On the season, the back is averaging 7.83 yards per carry. Getting him hot along with Tote Harris could turn this attack around.
New Mexico pounded the Chips on the ground in their season-opening win. If Wyoming can have similar success, they can pull the upset.
I think the home team holds serve in a contest that will be lacking points.
Winner: CMU
ATS: CMU
O/U: Under
UTEP at No. 19 Michigan
Saturday, September 19
12:30 PM PT, Big Ten Network
Line: Michigan –35
Over/Under: 48.5
The round-robin play in the Okla-TEP-igan cup concludes this week with the Miners traveling to the Big House as Michigan looks to conclude the non-conference slate 3-0 (ish).
Of course, UTEP played Oklahoma to open the season, hence the round-robin slate. UTEP is hoping the trip to Ann Arbor is a bit better than that trip to Norman was, with the Miners falling 51-0 and not even topping 200 yards of offense.
The go-go attack of UTEP rebounded in week two with a convincing win over Texas Southern. The Miners put up 51 points and were balanced on offense with 252 on the ground and 239 through the air.
It was a big improvement over the shutout loss to Oklahoma. Obviously, the competition was a bit different as well.
Kyle Whittingham admitted that he and the staff did not have a good game plan in the opener for Bryce Underwood. They rectified that in game two against Oklahoma as Young was electric with the ball in his hands.
Underwood still has not been able to throw with any real effectiveness, but he was a problem for the Sooners on the ground. The QB accounted for 87 of the Wolverines 152 yards on the ground.
So which Michigan team shows up—the one that struggled with Western Michigan or the one that rebounded against the Sooners?
I think we will see more of the latter this season and definitely that version this week. Underwood will need to get better throwing the football, but he won’t need to make a jump this week.
Michigan should be able to run all over the Miners, and the defense of the Wolverines will stymie UTEP throughout.
Winner: Michigan
ATS: Michigan
O/U: Under
Nevada at Middle Tennessee
Saturday, September 19
4:00 PM PT, ESPN+
Line: Nevada –4
Over/Under: 51.5
Last season, the Blue Raiders stormed back for the win over Nevada in Reno. This season sees the Pack make the return trip to Murfreesboro with hopes of paying their hosts back.
If they are to pull off the feat, they will need to be better this week than they were last time out.
Carter Jones missed the loss to Montana State with a shoulder injury, and Jeff Choate expects to have his QB back for this one.
The Wolf Pack did not miss much with AJ Blanco throwing the ball, but Jones ability to make more plays with his legs was missed against MSU.
The Blue Raiders defense did a good job of bottling up Marshal in their loss last week but allowed FCS Murray State to run for over 5.3 yards per carry in the opener.
Nevada will need a strong performance on the ground, and I look for Dominic Kelley to produce. The back has run for 236 yards in the first two weeks of the season and ran all over Western Kentucky in the opener.
I think Nevada grinds it out on the ground and is able to head back west with a win. This one stays close in the 20s but the Pack get the win.
Winner: Nevada
ATS: MTSU
O/U: Under
New Mexico at No. 24 Oklahoma
Saturday, September 19
4:30 PM PT, ESPN+
Line: Oklahoma –22.5
Over/Under: 46.5
The Lobos are going to get an angry Sooners squad smarting from their loss to Michigan.
The 24th-ranked team in the nation will have plenty of things to fix following their loss last week, particularly on offense.
If the Lobos were hoping to catch Oklahoma overconfident, think again. The offense had a difficult time getting things going against Michigan, but will the Lobo defense have the same effect? If they can, then it will be a good day for New Mexico.
But if ever there was a week to catch the Sooners, it might be this week. Following the visit from UNM, they get No. 2 Georgia and No. 1 Texas in consecutive weeks.
New Mexico is well coached; they have looked dominant in their opening two games and look to vie for the title of the best Group of Six in the nation. This week they have the opportunity to cement that.
Now, let’s look at how the Lobos can pull this upset.
Last week saw John Mateer turning the football over. A late interception by the OU QB set up the game-winning score for a Michigan team that still had plenty of offensive deficiencies.
Well, who leads the nation in interceptions this season? The New Mexico Lobos, with five on the season. If the Lobos can force errors this week, they will be in good shape.
The Lobos have also been able to run the ball well this season. Scottre Humphrey has churned out yards at a ridiculous rate.
While the Lobos have used both Luke Moga and Toa Fa’avae this season, Fa’avae could be effective with his legs.
Last week the Sooners had a hard time containing Bryce Underwood when plays broke down. This week Fa’avae could have a similar impact.
Alas, I don’t think things line up for the Lobos this week, but they don’t have to win this one to prove they belong. This is the Lobos’ chance to make a statement as a playoff hopeful, and a strong performance will do just that even if it results in a loss.
I think the Sooners win the game, but the Lobos prove something themselves.
Winner: Oklahoma
ATS: New Mexico
O/U: Over
North Dakota State at Sacramento State
Saturday, September 19
7:30 PM PT, ESPN
Line: NDSU –27.5
Over/Under: 51.5
The former FCS programs are facing drastically different expectations in their first seasons at the FBS level.
The Hornets are looking to stay afloat in the MAC while the Bison are suddenly looking like one of the powers of the Mountain West.
The Bison are 3-0 and have a conference win over Air Force in the bag already. Sacramento State is 1-2 with the lone win over an FCS opponent, a lopsided loss to Fresno State, and falling in their conference opener to Eastern Michigan.
The Hornets are set to take some lumps this season, and this game will be another one of those bumps in the road.
The Bison defense shut down their first two opponents, then allowed 207 on the ground to Air Force, but that is to be expected. The Hornets will not run the ball at the same level as the Falcons did.
NDSU will win this one going away.
Winner: NDSU
ATS: NDSU
O/U: Over
Fresno State at San Jose State
Saturday, September 19
8:00 PM PT, FS1
Line: Fresno State –6.5
Over/Under: 50.5
The rivalry game takes on a new look this season as the programs will meet as non-conference foes.
The line at only six and a half made me do a double take at first, but this is a rivalry game, and anything can happen.
The Spartans have an explosive offense behind Luke Weaver, and the rushing attack was also effective, led by Jabari Bates, who finished with 163 rushing yards.
To succeed this season and in this game, SJSU will need to keep things balanced on the offensive side of the ball.
Fresno State shook off their shutout loss to USC with a beatdown of Sacramento State last week.
In the win, Jayden Mandal was nearly perfect and had a clean pocket to work with. With time to operate, the Fresno State signal-caller will be able to pick apart defenses this season.
The Bulldogs will need to get pressure on Weaver, especially in third-down situations. If they can make things uncomfortable for the Spartans, they should be able to feast on defense.
I think this one stays tight for a bit before Fresno State pulls away late. The Bulldogs get the cover in the end, and the score goes over the 50-point offering.
Winner: Fresno State
ATS: Fresno State
Over/Under: Over
