The new-look Pac-12 kicks off its inaugural season this fall with eight football members.
Five of them hail from the Mountain West, with Oregon State and Washington State the only legacy holdovers, and Texas State added from the Sun Belt.
Boise State was chosen as the unanimous favorite in a preseason media poll organized by the Denver Gazette, followed by San Diego State.
My predictions differ, with a surprise pick behind the Broncos.
Preseason guesses aside, the reborn league figures to generate plenty of excitement each week and is a favorite to produce a Playoff team from among the Group of Six conferences.
Here is my predicted order of finish and projected win-loss record for each school.
1. Boise State
Boise State is the best team entering the new conference. Not surprisingly, Athlon Sports selected 20 Broncos to its all-Pac-12 teams.
One player the publication left off the First Team—returning quarterback Maddux Madsen—has a ton of experience as a signal-caller. His presence should prove vital this season after the Broncos lost most of their top receivers.
However, Boise State returns the two top backs in the conference in Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley.
The offensive line will likely be a plus as well; Roger Carreon is a first-teamer, and Jason Steele and Daylon Metoyer are stellar. If this group can find a solid left tackle, they should be able to outgun most units in the Pac-12.
This 2026 squad features a vicious defensive end combination led by Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Max Stege. This duo will likely be able to control the tempo of most of their matchups, except Oregon.
Everyone else should prove decent enough to replace what they lost, but they’ll need to find an answer at safety with Ty Benefield gone. The key for this unit is playing better against elite teams.
If the Broncos rectify that, they could find themselves in the College Football Playoff.
Projected W-L Record: 10-2
2. Washington State
Washington State is a huge X-factor in the Pac-12 this year. The Cougars have the type of team that could finish second, but they could also find themselves near the bottom of the conference.
With new Head Coach Kirby Moore, the offense is expected to improve quickly. But this is all dependent on the play of quarterback Caden Pinnick, who was a proven stud at UC Davis, throwing for 3,206 yards, 32 touchdowns, and ten interceptions.
Pinnick also added 437 yards on the ground. He’ll be complemented in the run game by the return of Kirby Vorhees and Leo Pulalasi in the backfield.
At receiver, Tony Freeman is a good playmaker, but the Cougars also have a couple of notable transfers in Darrius Clemons and Tank Hawkins.
The offensive line features Ashton Tripp, who will be protecting Pinnick’s blind side. And the group in its entirety has the potential to be one of the better units in the Pac-12.
Defensively, WSU is making ramen from scratch. The Cougs lost the majority of their defense to Iowa State with Jimmy Rogers. Some of the bigger losses are Isaac Terrell and Parker McKenna.
New Defensive Coordinator Trent Bray looks to retool a unit that proved sneaky good a year ago.
Projected W-L Record: 8-4
3. San Diego State
San Diego State made no sense last season, but they were still sick. Sean Lewis’ Aztec FAST moniker proved to be the opposite of his team’s identity.
The offense struggled, ranking 78th in the nation in points scored per game, but this unit should take a huge step forward this year.
The Aztecs return Jayden Denegal at quarterback, Lucky Sutton at halfback, and they get a bunch of receivers back from injury. They also return Jordan Napier at wide receiver.
There are a lot of question marks on the offensive line, but this unit has enough talent to compensate if they underwhelm. The West Coast will get to see what a Lewis system looks like.
On defense, however, SDSU has to replace everyone except Dalesean Staley, who may just have to limit big plays this year, and he’s still a stud.
The Aztecs lost 12 out of their top 14 tacklers, a First-Round draft pick in corner Chris Johnson, and probably a future First-Rounder in defensive end Trey White.
While the defense proved phenomenal in 2025, it’s time for the offense to boss up. This team feels like it’s close to the top, but not quite there yet.
If the defense comes to play, they’ll find themselves in the Pac-12 Championship.
Projected W-L Record: 7-5
4. Fresno State
Fresno State should be good, but they might lack the explosiveness needed to win the conference.
Matt Entz is a winner and knows exactly how he likes to build his roster. He won nine games his first season with the Bulldogs, and two National Titles at the FBS level.
Fresno State features arguably the best halfback duo in the Pac: Rayshon Luke and Bryson Donelson are deadly. But the rest of the offense needs to gel together quickly.
Khristian Martin is new at quarterback, and he lacks proven receivers. The Bulldogs will also need to replace key parts of the offensive line. But even if the line just holds together, this unit should be in the top half of the conference.
Flipping the page, the defensive front seven will probably decimate most teams in the Pac-12. If defensive ends Micah Mosley or Maverick Noonan can make an impact, it will be sticky to run against them.
FS also needs to replace two corners, though they did get a solid safety in the portal in Simeon Harris. The unit ranked second in the nation a year ago, only allowing 153.8 yards per game. They will likely regress, but will still be decent.
If the Bulldogs add some flash alongside Luke, they might be in the upper echelon of this league.
Projected W-L Record: 7-5
5. Texas State
Texas State is a team that belongs in this conference right now. Did the Bobcats play a weaker schedule in the Sun Belt? Yes, but so did a lot of the former Mountain West schools.
TXST might have a top-three offense in this conference. Brad Jackson is a legit dual-threat quarterback, and they feature two standout receivers in Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. They also added Davian Jackson, who brings speed to the group.
The Bobcats lost pretty much all of their running backs, including their RB coach. But Mike Leach doesn’t need to run. Texas State will need to rely heavily on its offensive line to throw the majority of the time. This unit is the key to their team.
Defensively, they’re likely to struggle after ranking 95th in the nation in points allowed per game in 2025. They do have a few playmakers, though—DonTerry Russell had 4.5 sacks a year ago, and Ryan Nolan should be able to clean up the big plays at safety.
The Bobcats are likely to fall off at defensive tackle, however, as they lost their top two tackles to Power Four schools.
Regardless, this team will go as far as its offense takes them, and will need to win a few shootouts to make a bowl game.
Projected W-L Record: 5-7
6. Colorado State
Colorado State benefits from a light schedule to open their campaign. If the Rams were to jump out to a 3-1 start, Jim Mora could get them to a bowl in his first year.
The key for CSU is simple: Whoever plays signal-caller needs to perform well. Hauss Hejny is the more explosive player, but Mora may feel more comfortable with K’sann Farrar.
This much certain: QB1 will have proven halfbacks in Mel Brown and Durell Robinson in his corner.
The Rams also landed UConn transfer Juice Vereen, who could be a standout at tight end. They will also field a talented receiving core with returner Tommy Maher and two transfers from Power Four schools.
If the offensive line holds together, this unit could surprise some teams.
Even though the Rams lost Owen Long to Arizona State, they may have enough collective talent to improve defensively.
Getting a consistent pass rush will be key, with CSU having enough pieces in the back seven to prove troublesome. Oumar Diomande is a solid transfer linebacker, and the secondary did a good job of re-tooling in the portal.
Were the Rams to steal one or two games in the Pac-12, they could easily find themselves bowling.
Projected W-L Record: 5-7
7. Oregon State
JaMarcus Shephard could be in for a tough rebuild, but there’s a silver lining. As miserable as Oregon State’s record looked a year ago, flipping a few heartbreakers could have changed that.
The key to turning things around quickly will be improved play from Maalik Murphy. He struggled in 2025, but he’s still the player who led Duke to nine wins. Unfortunately, the Beavers lost basically everything around him.
However, thanks to Shephard’s tutelage as a WR coach, OSU brought in a slew of receivers from the portal. It won’t matter much, though, if Murphy doesn’t shine. If he doesn’t bounce back, Braden Atkinson figures to get an opportunity.
Defensively, the Beavers need to find stability on the line. They lost two notable players in Thomas Collins and JoJo Johnson, but got a nice holdover at defensive tackle in Tevita Pome’e.
Aiden Sullivan, a nice returner at linebacker, finished with 72 tackles and three forced fumbles in 2025. Mike MacIntyre is extremely experienced in the football world and has much to contribute as the Beavs’ new defensive coordinator.
The coaching staff is solid all around, and we aren’t likely to see as many mistakes in special teams and in late-game scenarios. But due to weaknesses on both sides of the line, the rebuild won’t be speedy.
Projected W-L Record: 5-7
8. Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall will have to pull something off this year. Utah State lost quarterback Bryson Barnes, who did everything for the Aggies a season ago.
The hope is that McCae Hillstead can fill the void. He has some experience, but will it be enough? Hillstead will be asked to carry the offense immediately, and he’ll need to do just that.
Javen Jacobs, a great pass catcher out of the backfield who ran for 429 yards, caught for 379, and had eight combined touchdowns in 2025, will provide support.
The biggest concerns for USU are unproven wideouts and the tackle positions on the offensive line. The Aggies will need someone to complement Hillstead and Jacobs.
Flipping the mountain, Utah State has returners on defense, but historically, Mendenhall’s squads have struggled on that end of the field.
Brevin Hamblin is a legit safety, and he’ll have two returning corners around him. Bronson Olevao Jr., a star in his own right at linebacker, can do a bit of everything. USU also returns two players on the defensive line in Carson Tujague and Tyree Morris.
The Aggies have enough returning production to be good on defense, but the on-field results remain to be seen.
The team is talented, but with a brutal schedule, things could get ugly.
Projected W-L Record: 4-8
